411–420 of 644 posts
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Bad? I just tried Gemini and it was useless.
Starting to wonder why this is so common in LLM discussions at HN. Someone says "X is the model that really impressive. Y is good too." Then someone responds "What?! I just used Z and it was terrible!" I see this at least once in practically every AI thread
Similar to when Andrei Karpathy left Tesla. Tesla was on the verge of 'solving FSD' and unlocking trillions of $ of revenue (and mind you, this was already 3 years after the CEO said that they will have 1 million robotaxis on the road by the year's end). Guess what ? Tesla is still on the verge of 'solving FSD'. And most probably it will be in the same place for the next 10 years. The writing is on the wall for OpenA…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Assuming they're 40, how far do you think $250k will go 20-30-40 years from now? It's not a stretch to think dollars could be devalued by 90%, possibly even worthless, within 30 years.
If portfolio is diversified enough it can be enough for decades? If dollar goes down some other things will go up. gold, Bitcoin etc.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's easy to have missed this part of the story in all the chaos, but from the NYTimes in March: Ms. Murati wrote a private memo to Mr. Altman raising questions about his management and also shared her concerns with the board. That move helped to propel the board’s decision to force him out. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/07/technology/openai-executi... It should be no surprise if Sam Altman wants executives who opp…
Greg Brockman, OpenAI President and co-founder is also on extended leave of absence. And John Schulman, and Peter Deng are out already. Yet the company is still shipping, like no other. Recent multimodal integrations and benchmarks of o1 are outstanding.
I don't see it for OpenAI, I do see it for the competition. They have shipped incremental improvements, however, they are watering down their current models (my guess is they are trying to save on compute?). Copilot has turned into garbage and for coding related stuff, Claude is now better than gpt-4.
Honestly, their outlook is bleak.
Similar to when Andrei Karpathy left Tesla. Tesla was on the verge of 'solving FSD' and unlocking trillions of $ of revenue (and mind you, this was already 3 years after the CEO said that they will have 1 million robotaxis on the road by the year's end). Guess what ? Tesla is still on the verge of 'solving FSD'. And most probably it will be in the same place for the next 10 years. The writing is on the wall for OpenA…
I follow the latest updates to FSD and it's clear to me that they are getting closer to robotaxis really fast.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Between 1 and 10 thousands of days, so 3 to 27 years. A range I'd agree with; for me, "pessimism" is the shortest part of that range, but even then you have to be very confident the specific metaphorical horse you're betting on is going to be both victorious in its own right and not, because there's no suitable existing metaphor, secretly an ICBM wearing a patomime costume.
1 you use 1 2 (or even 3) you use "a couple" A few is almost always > 3 and one could argue that upper limit 15 So, 10 years to 50 years
15 is too high to be a "few" except in contexts of a few out of tens of thousands of items.
Realistically I interpret this as 3-7 thousands of days (8 to 19 years), which is largely consensus prediction range anyway.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why is it so hard to just accept this and be transparent about motives ? It's fair to say 'we were not aligned with Sam, we tried an ouster, didn't pan out so the best thing for us to do is to leave and let Sam pursue his path", which the entirely company has vouched for. Instead, you get to see grey area after grey area.
Because, for some weird reason, our culture has collectively decided that, even if most of us are capable of reading between the lines to understand what's really being said or is happening, it's often wrong and bad to be honest and transparent, and we should put the most positive spin possible on it. It's everywhere, especially in professional and political environments.
See flirting as a more basic example.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> like no other Really? Anthropic seems to be popping off right now. Kagi isn’t exactly in the AI space, but they ship features pretty frequently. OpenAI is shipping incremental improvements to its chatgpt product.
"popping off" means what?