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Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

bbc.com

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Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#671

Post by Lewton »

hef19898 wrote: post #653
Lewton wrote: post #643

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> No, panic is making it much more difficult to implement counter measures. Here in Denmark, where we're seeing an outbreak take hold, it's the EXACT opposite. People are going out even though they have been told to self-quarantine, even boarding planes. A couple refused to cancel a vacation trip even though they had been asked to quarantine because their son has been diagnosed with the virus. I really think we could…

I would call it more common sense, but yeah.

Giving people more common sense is not one of the tools we have available in our toolbox

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#672

Post by akie »

hef19898 wrote: post #664
akie wrote: post #659

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What you are doing is very dangerous. People need to be aware of what is about to hit them so that they can prepare. Calling into question second-hand reports as "unreliable", even though this particular twitter thread is completely unremarkable and in line with many other reports, makes people wonder if this whole Corona thing is nothing more than hot air. It's just super irresponsible to give people that impression…

News is basically just about Coronavirus by now, whether it is print, online, TV, radio... People are aware, unless you are living in a bunker since last smmer, in which case you would be safe anyway. If people refuse to take it seriously, no amount of reporting will change these individuals behaviour. What it does so, is causing overreaction of others which can have kind of side effects. Ranging from funny to plain…

Did you read what was in the original Twitter thread? Hospitals at 200%, people who need intensive care that aren't even looked at, staff who get sick and are otherwise completely overworked...

I'm not sure if you can overreact to that, to be honest.

But people in countries that aren't at that stage yet think it won't be so bad there. Because it's all fake and second-hand information, not well sourced, and therefore probably not true and so we shouldn't overreact. Wrong! You should take precautions now, while you still can.

Because what is described in the thread fits completely with an exponentially growing disease that everyone seemingly gets at once and thus completely overwhelms the hospitals. You shouldn't try to shush people who point that out.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#673

Post by MLpractitioner »

hef19898 wrote: post #665
MLpractitioner wrote: post #648

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's hundreds of similar recounts on social media at the moment, this is not an isolated case

Social media really seems to be the bane of the 21st century...

I think in this case these comments are really important to show people what is really happening, or you prefer full negationism like most countries are doing?

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#674

Post by hef19898 »

pengaru wrote: post #474
hurrdurr2 wrote: post #430

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One of our older neighbors are inviting everyone on the nextdoor app to go to their house for movie night to prove that this is just a flu. The entire thread is people making fun of covid19 and how they are angry their retirement accounts are getting hit. I wish I was making this up.

"there's no point for democracy when ignorance is celebrated" - NOFX The whole song is disturbingly accurate/prophetic. https://www.azlyrics.com/lyrics/nofx/idiotsaretakingover.htm... I'm completely unsurprised by what you're describing. I observed similarly disturbing behavior waiting in line @ Home Depot the other day. A customer was excited to find they had hand sanitizer in stock, and another customer told him th…

The last sentence applies to all stores, so. Unless people freak out and stock up for the apocalypse, in which case resupply might take a couple of days.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#675

Post by rglullis »

hef19898 wrote: post #661
rglullis wrote: post #655

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Most turkeys in farms are super happy, healthy and fat until some days before Thanksgiving. Why should they act like they could be slaughtered?"

Because turkeys are always fat. Happy and healthy is a diiferent story. And they get slaughtered, becasue that is the reason the are at the farm in the first place. Using that analogy for a disease is jst plain wrong.

Before this conversation goes any further, perhaps you should read The Black Swan?

Or if you don't like my turkey reference, let's stay in the realm of technology. Pop quiz: who said "Only the paranoid survive?"

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#676

Post by lm28469 »

saiya-jin wrote: post #654
raxxorrax wrote: post #597

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't have this impression. Many nations are trying to find a cure or a vaccine. Nobody knows the long term development of this virus. You could lock up everything, the economy collapses and it would hurt people even more than the virus might have. It is a gamble at this point. Political games come into play if people demand answers that nobody can give. If some presume to be able to do that, they are lying to your…

> If this is over in June and 100,000 people died, what would we call this? It would just be another disease probably. More like few millions in US alone, based on what happened in Italy which is more representative than China. Italy has >4% mortality rate last time I checked. And we talk about very well equipped and highly rated healthcare. I can't imagine this not having brutal effects on global economy. Another po…

> And we talk about very well equipped and highly rated healthcare.

We also talk about a country in which 20%+ of the population is over 65 years old [0], compare that to China (11%) [1]

[0] https://www.indexmundi.com/italy/demographics_profile.html

[1] https://www.indexmundi.com/china/demographics_profile.html

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#677

Post by hef19898 »

Lewton wrote: post #671
hef19898 wrote: post #653

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would call it more common sense, but yeah.

Giving people more common sense is not one of the tools we have available in our toolbox

Unfortunately you are very right.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#678

Post by jph00 »

irq11 wrote: post #394
sciinfo wrote: post #319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most severe cases require trained medical staff. Since ~20% of infections requires hospitalization, no healthcare system is prepared for an exponential rise in SARS-CoV-2 infections. Most fatalities are from pneumonia. Lots of details are available all over. You may want to read up.

The numbers out of Korea are nowhere near 20%. About 0.9% of cases are considered severe, according to the most recent statements from the KCDC: https://m.yna.co.kr/view/AKR20200307046000017?fbclid=IwAR0tl... Someone is exaggerating, or something is fundamentally inadequate about the Italian response.

The SK death rate of 0.7% assumes that all 98% of the cases with outcome currently classified as "unknown" will recover. That isn't rational! You need to do proper survival analysis to account for the growth in cases.

Here's a brief analysis of the current numbers from SK: https://twitter.com/jeremyphoward/status/1237324005108924417

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#679

Post by markvdb »

wooger wrote: post #627
markvdb wrote: post #481

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Darwin will solve this irresponsibly stupid behavior. Causing a lot of collateral damage unfortunately.

No, old people have likely already re-produced, and will not be prevented from reproducing if they die now.

I have to concede you're partly right. Darwin will solve more than you think though:

- Some old irresponsibly stupid males are still sexually active. Darwin would stop them reproducing.

- The old irresponsibly stupid neighbour is still a magnet for younger, sexually reproductive irresponsibly stupid people, probably more so than for others.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#680

Post by BiteCode_dev »

lormayna wrote: post #591

I am living in Italy (not in the zones where the virus starts spreading) and I want to say that our healthcare system is still working even if it's struggling. The big problem is that the number of places for critical care is going to saturate; they are starting moving sick persons from Lombardia to other regions in order to reduce pressure on the critical care hospitals departments. The number of death is so high be…

> The number of death is so high because they count person who had other illness (cancer, heart disease, etc) and because we have lot of elder persons (the probability of dying is higher for over 75).

I don't know how the count is made, but since the pressure will affect the care for the other patients as well, it makes sense to at least take them in consideration in the stats.

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