Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country • Hacker News Board

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#391

Post by hermitdev » Tue, Mar 10, 2020, 4:27 AM UTC

Polylactic_acid wrote: post #337

usrusr wrote: post #249

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The toilet roll thing seems to be everywhere (Germany is full of "why toilet paper!" outrage as well), but do people really panic buy so much? Toilet paper is an item you buy once every few weeks or months, depending on household size, it's very high volume per unit of money so shops stock just enough to satisfy an even random distribution of individual buying times. Now if all of a sudden, triggered by news, a consi…

This reminds me of the phenomenon where a slowdown in traffic on a road causes all of the cars to bunch up. And then after the blockage is gone, the bunch up continues to cause more cars to bunch up and the slowdown exists long after the issue is gone. It seems like the fact that toilet paper is gone causes people to buy it whenever its available which causes it to be gone.

I see this on I88 outside of Chicago all the goddamn time. Takes a little bit of aggressive driving to get past it, but eventuallually you'll find a point where there is a mile gap in the left lane, becausr people dont accelerate after a slowdown. Its fruatrating and caises me easily 10 minutes per day. I'm fine if you want to drive below the speed limit, but move put of the way (I'm talking people driving 45 in a 60 zone, when prevailing traffic wants to run 85). Holding up traffic is technically illegal, even if you're exceeding the speed limit, but in practice, its seldom enforced.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#392

Post by barry-cotter » Tue, Mar 10, 2020, 4:38 AM UTC

jpxw wrote: post #219

Angostura wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China has seen massive decline in the number of new cases in Hubei. It’s no surprise the response is being praised.

Can they be believed?

Maybe not in the fine details but in the broad outlines yes. With a doubling time in cases of four or five days without containment measures it would be obvious to me here in Shanghai that people were getting sick and hospitals were overloaded with new cases.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#393

Post by cma » Tue, Mar 10, 2020, 4:39 AM UTC

somecontext wrote: post #365

dpcan wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've never heard of 14 people dying in a 120-bed nursing home of the seasonal flu in a 3 week time span either, but the Coronavirus is making that happen in Kirkland, WA right now. Actually, about 30 people have died, but since they don't have enough tests, they can't say that it was Coronavirus. My wife is an administrator at a Nursing facility that is much larger, and this many people DYING so quickly is terrifying…

Please do not consider this comment to be commentary on the ongoing coronavirus outbreak, especially considering the situation at the nursing home in Washington state. Out of curiosity, I tried to find examples where many people died of a flu outbreak in nursing homes. Here are some articles I found: This article describes a nursing home in Sheffield where 9 of 60 residents died from the flu during the 1997--1998 sea…

I guess one thing would be, this was likely the first acute care nursing home hit which may be closer to taking a random sample of what it would do to any given one (though community spread wasn't known about yet, and later ones may have rapid tests available to limit spread and enforce quarantine). Whereas those are probably the worst hit of many. This one seems to be possibly 20 or so of 140 as well (testing not done yet), but the 9/60 case would still be worse.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#394

Post by irq11 » Tue, Mar 10, 2020, 4:41 AM UTC

sciinfo wrote: post #319

kaiabwpdjqn wrote: post #312

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do the healthcare workers actually do while caring for these people? Is this something that actually requires significant medical knowledge? What does arrest mean? Is that cardiac arrest? Is that how people are dying? If they’re dying and people aren’t attending, should they even be there at all?

Most severe cases require trained medical staff. Since ~20% of infections requires hospitalization, no healthcare system is prepared for an exponential rise in SARS-CoV-2 infections. Most fatalities are from pneumonia. Lots of details are available all over. You may want to read up.

The numbers out of Korea are nowhere near 20%. About 0.9% of cases are considered severe, according to the most recent statements from the KCDC:

https://m.yna.co.kr/view/AKR20200307046000017?fbclid=IwAR0tl...

Someone is exaggerating, or something is fundamentally inadequate about the Italian response.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#395

Post by roywiggins » Tue, Mar 10, 2020, 4:44 AM UTC

Barrin92 wrote: post #340

adventured wrote: post #302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And yet Germany (median age 48, nearly the oldest in the world, slightly older than Italy and similar to Japan) has seen only two deaths so far out of ~1,100 cases. I've yet to see a definitive explanation for the extreme difference between what we're seeing in Italy vs South Korea vs Germany when it comes to mortality rates. Italy has a developed-world, universal healthcare system. Perhaps the cases in Germany are n…

another fairly obvious explanation would also be that the Italy's numbers are underreported and there's significantly more sick people, which would also explain the healthcare breakdown. Because I have no real explanation how a few hundred people on ventilators are supposed to bring the healthcare system down.

Here's an interview with another doctor in Milan.

https://www.cbc.ca/radio/asithappens/as-it-happens-monday-ed...

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#396

Post by kijin » Tue, Mar 10, 2020, 4:46 AM UTC

soneil wrote: post #226

CaciaraAsAServi wrote: post #65

I was not very surprised that Italy turned out to be the (first?) major hit in Europe. Considering the strong business connections, it had to be either us or Germany. We are, as much of the world, importers from China, but many enterprises here are also, somewhat, strong exporters to China (I can see it from my dayjob as industrial automation SI), and if you factor in the small average size of Italian companies requi…

> Another interesting thing I have just noticed is that some journalists are now openly praising the Chinese handling of the crisis. I think this is a very interesting effect. China has a fantastic ability to mobilize as one when needed. The vast majority of the time, the insane amount of control this requires, is something we're simply not comfortable with giving to governments. But sometimes, just sometimes, the re…

China's ability to mobilize as one as quickly as it did is no doubt a consequence of strong central control. The same centralization, though, is also to blame for its inadequate early response. Officials in Wuhan didn't have the authority to act on their own without Beijing's permission.

After this pandemic has died down, we should compare and contrast different countries' responses and try to appraise objectively just how much of a difference they made. China is trying really hard to make the case that their authoritarian approach is a model for the world, and it's too easy to be persuaded by that rhetoric when everyone is afraid and panicking. Meanwhile, some countries are trying just as hard to persuade their citizens that everything is okay when in fact it isn't. When all is said and done, we'll see how well that works, too.

Depending on how things go, I think South Korea could become either a model for the free world or a lesson in the shortfalls of democracy. They were doing pretty well until mid-February without imposing any travel bans or other measures that might be considered authoritarian, but then the number of cases exploded and everyone had to scramble. Instead of strong central control, most things were delegated to local governments. Different cities and provinces took different initiatives, quickly learning from each other when one of them came up with a new idea such as drive-thru testing. The shortage of hospital beds was met by large companies (hello, Samsung) and megachurches donating their own resorts and conference facilities for use as quarantine centers. Hundreds of doctors rushed to Daegu to help with the medical crisis there, and faced very little bureaucratic red tape in doing so.

The decentralized approach has its own inefficiencies, of course, especially in places with incompetent leaders or when dealing with a cult that refuses to cooperate. But when South Korea says that there were only 35 new cases last night, compared to hundreds a week ago, you can actually trust that it's a good-faith report because it's been cross-checked by so many independent players. The central government misreported the case count for my city a couple of times lately, and the city immediately issued corrections.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#397

Post by bagacrap » Tue, Mar 10, 2020, 4:46 AM UTC

wyattpeak wrote: post #222

perl4ever wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"It's been noted that residents there were very receptive to social distancing measures due to their experience with SARS in 2003" It's going to be interesting how society changes as a result of this, for those of us who live through it.

> for those of us who live through it Please don't needlessly add drama to the already fairly panicked response. Virtually everyone under the age of seventy will live through it. The death rate for young to middle-aged adults is two or three per thousand.

I think that gp was adding respect for the deceased, not drama.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#398

Post by davidw » Tue, Mar 10, 2020, 4:50 AM UTC

fragsworth wrote: post #363

mantap wrote: post #315

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Politicians have no understanding of exponential growth. They look at low numbers and think "we have a lot of time" then are surprised later when they in fact don't.

We should be quarantining every city in the U.S. right now. You're 100% correct, and it's going to be just as bad here.

Something we can all do as individuals is stop going out to unnecessary things. I'm avoiding restaurants, bars, gyms and large groups.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#399

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Mar 10, 2020, 4:50 AM UTC

tejohnso wrote: post #215

kryogen1c wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And long comments full of vivid imagery lile this are EXACTLY why people are dissuaded from making social media posts, exemplified by the poster: "Sorry, but to me, as a doctor, it's not reassuring that the most serious are mainly elderly people with other pathologies." This could not be less helpful or more harmful. There is no useful information (that i got to, couldnt get all the way through). This is not an lette…

What's so unhelpful about an honest, informed opinion from someone who is actually directly involved, working in a hospital? Seemed quite helpful to me. Much more so than the pure speculation I'm hearing from other sources. I got the impression the poster wanted to get their truth out, not fear monger.

[deleted]

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#400

Post by roywiggins » Tue, Mar 10, 2020, 4:51 AM UTC

throwaway122378 wrote: post #286

moultano wrote: post #271

This is an account from one of the doctors in Italy. https://twitter.com/jasonvanschoor/status/123714289107769753... Read the whole thing, but this passage in particular is just chilling. "5/ Patients above 65 or younger with comorbidities are not even assessed by ITU, I am not saying not tubed, I’m saying not assessed and no ITU staff attends when they arrest. Staff are working as much as they can but they are start…

That account has TEN tweets spanning 2013 - 2020. Then this thread. Don’t believe everything you read even if it sounds like a believable novel

Hi, here's an interview with another doctor, this one in Milan.

https://www.cbc.ca/radio/asithappens/as-it-happens-monday-ed...