Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country • Hacker News Board

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#471

Post by Jedd » Tue, Mar 10, 2020, 6:48 AM UTC

baddox wrote: post #447

fragsworth wrote: post #363

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We should be quarantining every city in the U.S. right now. You're 100% correct, and it's going to be just as bad here.

Now long would you maintain that quarantine? Is there some amount of time after which the virus will go away? Any call for drastic measures, even when drastic measures seem like common sense to some people , need to explain why the measures should be implemented and under what circumstances they should be lifted.

I concur with GP - but here in Australia we're run by fantasists, so it's not going to happen here either.

> Now long would you maintain that quarantine?

I'd suggest start with 2 weeks, and reassess after 10 days. I note that in TFA Italy's administration extended this (initially) out to the 3rd of April, which seems like a reasonable timeframe.

Incarcerated people rioted ... and a churlish part of my brain suggests that's just to be expected, but each nation state can learn from, and put more effort into educating than, the earlier pioneers.

> Is there some amount of time after which the virus will go away?

We don't really know - but it sounds like a rhetorical question(?).

I know that I'd be happy with a two week lockdown - option to renew - here in AU ... especially if it reduced my chance of dying. The numbers cited in TFA are suggesting a 3% mortality rate now, and massive propagation rates and embarrassingly poor treatment / survival rates even in a first world country early on in the pandemic cycle.

> Any call for drastic measures, even when drastic measures seem like common sense to some people, need to explain why the measures should be implemented and under what circumstances they should be lifted.

I'd invert your usage of the precautionary principle and ask, given what we know so far, why the default response isn't to shut down non-essential travel and public events for a couple of weeks.

I mean, what's your acceptable ratio of dead people : inconvenienced live people?

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#472

Post by hef19898 » Tue, Mar 10, 2020, 6:48 AM UTC

Bombthecat wrote: post #467

fragsworth wrote: post #363

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We should be quarantining every city in the U.S. right now. You're 100% correct, and it's going to be just as bad here.

I think worse. But i askari think it will go exactly like the Spanish flu. We will have a second wave which will also kill the younger.

Why would you think that? By the way, the Spanish was harsh on younger generations in all cases.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#473

Post by zo1 » Tue, Mar 10, 2020, 6:48 AM UTC

chadcmulligan wrote: post #437

BurningFrog wrote: post #407

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Politicians have no understanding of exponential growth To be fair, that is true of 95% of humanity. These politicians are representative of their voters, as democracy should be.

> These politicians are representative of their voters, as democracy should be. Isn't it that they make decisions on behalf of the voters and should take the best professional advice on their behalf?

Professional advice is not necessarily the best political advise, unfortunately. It's a giant PR/social-media game and they have to play it otherwise the other side will get the upper hand. It's very unfortunate that we've turned "democracy" into such a game instead of a mechanism for societal-level decision making.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#474

Post by pengaru » Tue, Mar 10, 2020, 6:49 AM UTC

hurrdurr2 wrote: post #430

sciinfo wrote: post #323

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The vast majority of people don't have an intuitive understanding of exponential growth. People not trained well in math and science don't even have/know the tools to help them understand it analytically. We need (much) better math education for people studying all majors .

One of our older neighbors are inviting everyone on the nextdoor app to go to their house for movie night to prove that this is just a flu. The entire thread is people making fun of covid19 and how they are angry their retirement accounts are getting hit. I wish I was making this up.

"there's no point for democracy when ignorance is celebrated" - NOFX

The whole song is disturbingly accurate/prophetic.

https://www.azlyrics.com/lyrics/nofx/idiotsaretakingover.htm...

I'm completely unsurprised by what you're describing. I observed similarly disturbing behavior waiting in line @ Home Depot the other day. A customer was excited to find they had hand sanitizer in stock, and another customer told him there's a whole aisle full of the stuff and that all the covid stuff is fake news which devolved into nonsensical madness between yokels I had to just walk away from. Of course our Home Depot had some in stock, we're in rural bumblefuck middle of nowhere. Our stores only run out of things when the employees forget to do their jobs.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#475

Post by cjblomqvist » Tue, Mar 10, 2020, 6:51 AM UTC

FooBarWidget wrote: post #455

kijin wrote: post #396

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China's ability to mobilize as one as quickly as it did is no doubt a consequence of strong central control. The same centralization, though, is also to blame for its inadequate early response. Officials in Wuhan didn't have the authority to act on their own without Beijing's permission. After this pandemic has died down, we should compare and contrast different countries' responses and try to appraise objectively ju…

China’s system is, in fact, pretty decentralized. Local authorities have a lot of autonomy. Many people doing business in China for the first time thought they needed to talk to the central government to get things done. The central government nodded and said ‘that’s a good idea’, but then nothing happened. The businessmen are then surprised to find out that they need to talk to local authorities to actually get thin…

Not exporting? They might say that, but in reality they are actively promoting themselves. They also kidnap other countries citizens in third party countries and lock them up without proper trials. See their treatment of Gui Minhao (sry if spelling is off). When things collide (and they will), China will not only care about their own issues with their own people on their own turf, but actively meddle.

I'm not judging, just want to bring some balance to this "truth" you speak of...

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#476

Post by oefrha » Tue, Mar 10, 2020, 6:51 AM UTC

ALittleLight wrote: post #419

muyuan wrote: post #296

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am a Chinese living in Bay Area. What's described by the Italian doctor was exactly like the situation in Wuhan right after the lockdown for the first 2-3 weeks. Unfortunately, I think it will hit Italy harder this time, China locked down Wuhan but every other provinces send in supplies and doctors to help, just building new hospitals is not enough, and I don't see France/Germany doing the same to Italy. The US res…

I am extremely disappointed in the American government on this. We have had a significant warning and we've seen the virus in multiple countries and the response has been so lackluster. Why should we wait 20 days for things to get terrible before going to quarantines and lock down? Surely China and Italy have shown us our future. I partly think the problem is political. If you quarantine and the virus is controlled,…

> If you quarantine and the virus is controlled, then it looks like you panicked over nothing, because you took this huge reaction and nothing much happened.

Nails it. You could be so good at your job that people think your job isn’t even necessary; or you could be putting out fires caused by your incompetence all day every day and people think you’re a hero.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#477

Post by cbcoutinho » Tue, Mar 10, 2020, 6:55 AM UTC

chadcmulligan wrote: post #437

BurningFrog wrote: post #407

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Politicians have no understanding of exponential growth To be fair, that is true of 95% of humanity. These politicians are representative of their voters, as democracy should be.

> These politicians are representative of their voters, as democracy should be. Isn't it that they make decisions on behalf of the voters and should take the best professional advice on their behalf?

That is the difference between a democracy and a republic.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#478

Post by anigbrowl » Tue, Mar 10, 2020, 6:56 AM UTC

standardUser wrote: post #422

bdamm wrote: post #364

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And of course in the US there are not as many testing kits as in other countries, so the numbers are basically 3 months behind.

The US is probably a much larger vector than we realize. The testing rate is the lowest in the world and Americans travel like mad. Who knows how many undiagnosed Americans have been globe trotting over the last couple weeks?

You have no idea :-(

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#479

Post by forgotmyhnacc » Tue, Mar 10, 2020, 7:01 AM UTC

llamataboot wrote: post #458

The US really really /really/ needs to get out in front of this. We have the lowest per-capita testing rate in the world, there are likely already significant outbreaks in Seattle, Santa Clara co, NYC, and DC. Probably elsewhere. We are literally like 12 days behind and can see into our future. If this virus does indeed require such intense hospital resources (as in Wuhan and now Northern Italy) letting it spike is j…

It's absolutely astounding that Disney Land and world are still open.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#480

Post by FooBarWidget » Tue, Mar 10, 2020, 7:02 AM UTC

cjblomqvist wrote: post #475

FooBarWidget wrote: post #455

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China’s system is, in fact, pretty decentralized. Local authorities have a lot of autonomy. Many people doing business in China for the first time thought they needed to talk to the central government to get things done. The central government nodded and said ‘that’s a good idea’, but then nothing happened. The businessmen are then surprised to find out that they need to talk to local authorities to actually get thin…

Not exporting? They might say that, but in reality they are actively promoting themselves. They also kidnap other countries citizens in third party countries and lock them up without proper trials. See their treatment of Gui Minhao (sry if spelling is off). When things collide (and they will), China will not only care about their own issues with their own people on their own turf, but actively meddle. I'm not judging…

Promoting themselves, sure. But that is not the same as exporting (imposing their system on others, claiming that others are evil for not following their way). Wanting to have a good image is not the same as exporting. All countries talk about themselves in a positive manner In order to uphold their image. Why shouldn’t China do the same? Nobody else is going to do it for them.

You can disagree with their claims. But that is not the same as arguing that any form of self promotion is bad.

Of course, China is far from perfect. Bad things do happen, I am not denying that. If we are speaking about balance, then I think that in western discourse the balance has tipped too much towards the ‘china is always bad in every aspect’ side, totally ignoring or actively denying the good sides, and ignoring equally bad things that happen in their own places.

Will China meddle when their interests are threatened? Of course, and so will any other country in the world.

If China’s interests conflict with yours, then it is fine to point that out. It is not fine to paint them as the bad guys just because they have conflicting interests. And even then, such issues can be resolved peacefully: China has shown that it is interested in negotiation and being reasonable. You wouldn’t believe how much land China has given up since the 40s as part of negotiation deals with other countries. It is time to stop this cold war mentality where it is us vs the evil commies who are out to conquer the world.