The GM strike is really about the switch to electric cars • Hacker News Board

Re: The GM strike is really about the switch to electric cars

#211

Post by sprash » Sat, Oct 05, 2019, 11:18 PM UTC

redisman wrote: post #205

sprash wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most electricity is produced by burning coal heating up water and sending it through a turbine. The efficiency is limited by the maximum the carnot cycle can give you. In general less than 60%. Still not as bad as 10%, sure. But if you get your energy with solar cells we could get into regions where the efficiencies are comparable. All Fisher-Tropsch needs is heat and using solar you have plenty of that.

So when you argue for your point, electricity for the process comes from solar but when you argue against someone elses point it comes from coal?

All I'm saying is, when talking about efficiency the electricity source should be considered as well. Besides that efficiency is not the right metric to ask for here. Environmental impact is the important metric. Destroying existing infrastructure, destroying vast ecosystems in Chile to mine Lithium, enslaving Africans to mine Cobalt, use lots of energy to purify silicon for solar cells, building a more distributed power grid, installing charging stations everywhere. All of this has environmental impact. If you can make synthetic fuel with solar power in some desert (Nevada is big enough), you can keep all the old stuff and still be able to save the planet.

Re: The GM strike is really about the switch to electric cars

#212

Post by plutonic » Sat, Oct 05, 2019, 11:24 PM UTC

pnutjam wrote: post #187

pseudoramble wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with you. I also feel the same way about people studying a "worthless" degree at a university. I think it should be much more heavily encouraged to let us develop deeper thinkers, artists, and others. We should learn to celebrate that not everything needs to be economically/financially driven. > We just need to realise that life happyness and meaningful work doesn't mean generating profits for some ceo. I bel…

People realize it, just not he old ones with the money.

This reminds me of Scott's post over at Slate Star Codex about Moloch [0]. The issue here isn't so much about _realizing_ the futility in pegging one's happiness to one's profitability. The issue is that for any one person to forgo this standard (s)he would be required to give up the status conferred on being a profit-generating American. This is against his/her interest. Thus, most Americans would rather work harder and be more productive/profitable and maintain their status, than attempt to achieve a more authentic happiness, and risk being perceived as a failure by others. To actually alter this standard would require changing the cultural norms around status and profitability either from the top-down, or from outside entirely.

[0] https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/07/30/meditations-on-moloch/

Re: The GM strike is really about the switch to electric cars

#213

Post by pnutjam » Sat, Oct 05, 2019, 11:35 PM UTC

woodandsteel wrote: post #204

pnutjam wrote: post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't believe the hype.

If you think I am wrong, then it would be helpful if you explained what you think the truth is.

Self driving cars and rental instead of ownership is at least 15 to 20 years out.

Re: The GM strike is really about the switch to electric cars

#214

Post by jaxn » Sat, Oct 05, 2019, 11:38 PM UTC

Balgair wrote: post #189

rplst8 wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There might be other revenue streams like battery recycling. Might not replace ICE maintenance jobs completely, but will hopefully provide some cover.

When/if the ECs get to be a lot cheaper than the ICEs, I think you'll see a 'fast fashion' in cars. Like with smart-phones, the accessorization will take off too; pop-sockets, cases, backgrounds, etc. Sure, it'll be less money overall, but it'll be good too.

Or the opposite. Fast fashion increased customer frequency (both by lower cost and lower quality). The retailers used the increased visits to upsell higher margin products. (Notice how H&M, F21, Old Navy have huge accessory sections).

Less maintenance and higher reliability means the fear of maintenance is not as strong of a motivator for a new car, resulting in lower customer frequency.

Re: The GM strike is really about the switch to electric cars

#215

Post by Faark » Sat, Oct 05, 2019, 11:45 PM UTC

toss1 wrote: post #193

woodandsteel wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Unless electric cars are going to generate less revenue than petroleum based, which they won't, the pie is the same size As battery prices continue to fall, electrics will get cheaper than ice's, so there will be less revenue. Beyond that, fsd means many people who now own a car will use robotaxis instead, which means many fewer autos needed. In addition Tesla is working on making its cars last a million miles. So t…

The move motivated by Full Self Drive away from full-time ownership and towards robotaxis should indeed reduce the number of personally owned vehicles, but would it really reduce the number of vehicles? Instead of vehicles driving 150K miles over 11 years (~~ average car age now in US) a robotaxi could burn through 500 miles in a day or 500K miles in 2.7 years. They'd certainly need the interior replaced several time…

Robotaxis will quickly become highly durable (well, maintenance become cheap), since for the first time incentives mostly align. The car will be produced and maintained by the same one of few powerful corporations.

The bigger problem will be aligning incentives with the customer. Especially regarding safety, since riders can hardly evaluate that by themself.

Re: The GM strike is really about the switch to electric cars

#216

Post by zizee » Sun, Oct 06, 2019, 12:08 AM UTC

TomMckenny wrote: post #122

No it's about money and who gets it. Unless electric cars are going to generate less revenue than petroleum based, which they won't, the pie is the same size. That manufacturing becomes more efficient is no surprise: it always has. The question is whether they have fewer workers at the same compensation level, fewer workers at a higher compensation level or the same number of workers with fewer hours. Owners are push…

> No it's about money and who gets it.

> Owners are pushing for the first, labor wants anything except the first.

There are two important actors left out of this analysis: consumers and parts suppliers.

It doesn't fit the evil owner narrative, but often these efficiency gains translate largely to reduced prices for consumers. Consumers vote with their wallets, so it is often the case that unless the evil owners conspire against consumers by fixing prices, businesses are often forced to pass on efficiency gains as cheaper prices.

As for suppliers, a very large portion of an electric car price is in the battery. If the size of the pie is remaining the same, then this new player is taking a lot $$ off the table, offsetting efficiency gains.

Re: The GM strike is really about the switch to electric cars

#217

Post by TYPE_FASTER » Sun, Oct 06, 2019, 12:09 AM UTC

Aloha wrote: post #9

I'm skeptical that the labor differential is as big as this article implies frankly. This strike is pretty straightforward in cause, GM wants to pay less, and wants their employees to cover more of their healthcare costs, the Union isnt okay with this. Working in an auto plant is hard, backbreaking work that will leave you physically broken by retirement - and while the transition to electric cars may slightly reduce…

> and wants their employees to cover more of their healthcare costs

Yes, this is important. Expect to see benefit reductions result in more strikes.

Re: The GM strike is really about the switch to electric cars

#218

Post by swagasaurus-rex » Sun, Oct 06, 2019, 12:10 AM UTC

Judgmentality wrote: post #138

TomMckenny wrote: post #122

No it's about money and who gets it. Unless electric cars are going to generate less revenue than petroleum based, which they won't, the pie is the same size. That manufacturing becomes more efficient is no surprise: it always has. The question is whether they have fewer workers at the same compensation level, fewer workers at a higher compensation level or the same number of workers with fewer hours. Owners are push…

> No it's about money and who gets it. Unless electric cars are going to generate less revenue than petroleum based, which they won't, the pie is the same size. Right now the margins on gasoline vehicles are much better than electric vehicles, partially due to the technology being relatively immature. The internal combustion engine has more than 100 years and hundreds of billions of dollars in R&D behind its infrastr…

You say that maintenance is a large part of the pie that will be lost to electric.

Here's an unfounded but different perspective: Electric's reliability and return on investment will only make the transportation industry that much more profitable, and the amount of transportation will only increase as time goes on. The total size of the pie will increase.

Maintenance will still be needed, especially on many generations of electric transport not limited to cars or trucks.

Re: The GM strike is really about the switch to electric cars

#219

Post by corey_moncure » Sun, Oct 06, 2019, 12:13 AM UTC

pro8ndi wrote: post #161

bluedino wrote: post #29

There are so many parts involved with a traditional engine and transmission. Living in Michigan, there are lots of companies building these individual parts. I know a guy who works at a place that builds springs for transmissions ( https://www.pjws.com/our-products/ ) Valvetrain parts, pistons, rings, crankshafts, starters, heads, oil pumps, exhaust manifolds, mufflers, fuel injectors, sensors...none of this stuff is…

The extreme is an entire country unprepared to deal with the end of the emotional meme they’ve spent their lives soaking up. It’s pretty simple: Ownership is unwilling to spend on the mess their wealth relies on. The masses are too incapable of adaptation on their own, having been trained to fit radiators and hub caps, not participate in the political process. Adam Smith’s concern over extreme division of labor makin…

>Social welfare work is about the only job left for the masses once automation is doing enough.

I was thinking residential-scale agriculture but for the most part I agree with your conclusions. This doesn't necessarily have to be a bad thing. If all that's left to do is pick our own veggies from the fields, then we've won the game. Probably we can offset the use of environmentally toxic substances with all the extra labor we'll have.

End stage capitalism may start to look a lot like communism in certain aspects.

Re: The GM strike is really about the switch to electric cars

#220

Post by ThrowawayR2 » Sun, Oct 06, 2019, 12:14 AM UTC

MuffinFlavored wrote: post #190

thephyber wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think the "hard work" excuse works when you are talking about people who used to work in coal mines and have a family to support. I think it's more likely that the basic math (algebra, geometry, etc) is missing when you look at men who started working in the mines before they finish high school. Without the math foundation, it's not "hard work", but a weak foundation which just causes frustration. That, and a…

> I think it's more likely that the basic math (algebra, geometry, etc) I am a senior full stack developer and typically in the top 10% of the developers in my org wherever I've gone past 5 years. I do 0 algebra or geometry. I call APIs, I put stuff in databases. I store state. I really don't think it's "math"y at all. I transform data, I use libraries. I can't think of any algebraic examples of anything I've done in…

> I do 0 algebra or geometry. I call APIs, I put stuff in databases. I store state.

That's not something to be happy about, that's something to be terrified of. If nothing the average coder does requires any particular specialized skills beyond gluing together libraries built by experts, what do you think will happen when, like the coal miners, some technological or societal change comes along that reduces the need for average coders?

Demand for coders isn't infinite.