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Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

anthropic.com

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Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#291

Post by ai_fry_ur_brain »

panarky wrote: post #224
pseudosavant wrote: post #197

Up until this point, the potential for an AI bust blast radius was limited to corporate investors, but this is going to cause regular retail/401k investors to get exposure, which could have far bigger impacts on a downturn. Not to mention the insane wake-up call it is going to be for these AI stocks when 3 months after they launch they have to start making earnings calls and showing their financials. That quarter-by-…

If we're doing historical comparisons, there was so much hype for AOL and Yahoo that drove valuations far beyond the economics. In time, the hypesters were proved wrong. In contrast, there was overwhelming doom and gloom for Google's IPO, in spite of their incredible growth and margin economics. In time, the doomers were proved wrong. There's so much doom and gloom about Anthropic that directly contradicts their asto…

They've changed the rules that will force these companies into every ETF commonly held by people's 401ks. The doomer narrative doesnt matter, they're forcing the common man to be the exit liquidty for the elite before the bubble pops.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#292

Post by [deleted] »

panarky wrote: post #256
ifwinterco wrote: post #240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think it's really doom and gloom, that's mostly on here. The normies are all still excited/scared and the valuation based on secondary trading is going up and up. Maybe not quite as crazy as the dot com boom but I'd say the current environment for AI and related equities is a lot closer to the mid/late 90s than 2004

Normies are on fire for SpaceX, where the economics are horrible and the hype is off the charts. Normies have never heard of Anthropic, where the economics are incredible and doom vibes are pervasive.

[deleted]

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#293

Post by lmeyerov »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #250
lmeyerov wrote: post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

4-8 quarters for most tech IPOs to settle. IPOs are manufactured for the good times around young co's, so not surprising, and economic stability isn't a question of days/weeks/months. And yes often a falling knife This is pretty predictably wall street & federal regulators scamming normal people, retirement funds, etc, taking their fees and exit window at everyone else's expense

> 4-8 quarters for most tech IPOs to settle Where are you getting this timeline from?

Mostly by having a pulse for the last 10-20 years as someone in the bay area seeing it repeatedly play out as tech IPOs get dumped onto retail investors repeatedly, including the 'good' ones. Being lucky enough to participate in IPOs makes you check these wrt when to balance IPO pop exit (weeks/months) vs long-term tax benefits of holding (2yr+).

- The initial pop is known to be manufactured by banks, so mostly benefits insiders, so good time to diversify. I'm conservative so sold to cover effective basis or whatever risk strategy :)

- The lockup period (6mo) is a similarly known artificial event, and studies show that

- Tech companies take ~8 quarters of prep for the IPO as they do financial engineering to transition from VC growth-at-all-costs to public $, and I'd expect the same for whatever nonsense they pulled to juice numbers to shake out. And that's not including oddballs like the Musk alternate universe, just normal tech companies covering up EBITDA and low interest rate madness.

- Tech is especially volatile as an industry, so even more skepticism here. Eg, the latest IPO I was involved in was a successful professional social network play, and chatgpt killed it.

Most/all of these are googleable things

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#294

Post by ai_fry_ur_brain »

anukin wrote: post #198
pseudosavant wrote: post #197

Up until this point, the potential for an AI bust blast radius was limited to corporate investors, but this is going to cause regular retail/401k investors to get exposure, which could have far bigger impacts on a downturn. Not to mention the insane wake-up call it is going to be for these AI stocks when 3 months after they launch they have to start making earnings calls and showing their financials. That quarter-by-…

I thought you could intelligently allocate 401k. I don’t think mine was etfs of nasdaq or s&p for some time now. Ever since Tesla got in

95% of people do not bother and just park everything in S&P 50/100

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#295

Post by EugeneG »

ai_fry_ur_brain wrote: post #290
EugeneG wrote: post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Reminds me of this... During Apple's 1980 Initial Public Offering (IPO), Massachusetts regulators banned residents from purchasing the stock. The state's securities regulators deemed the offering "too risky" and "over-valued," enforcing a state rule that prohibited IPOs with a price exceeding 25 times earnings.

Well we are far more corrupt and in the last stages of late stage capitalism. 15 day waiting period for Nasdaq 100. Your 401k is now the exit liquidty for the country's 5k richest people. I really dont see how America doesnt collapse on the weight of its own corruption. But maybe the was the plan all along....

The stock market (and in particular the US stock market) has been an incredibly positive influence on the average American's 401k... Great driver of allowing Americans and beyond to share in the upside of successful companies... big reason why Americans can retire.

Of course, it doesn't always go up...

I think you have an oddly negative bias.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#296

Post by radicalbyte »

pseudosavant wrote: post #261
panarky wrote: post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we're doing historical comparisons, there was so much hype for AOL and Yahoo that drove valuations far beyond the economics. In time, the hypesters were proved wrong. In contrast, there was overwhelming doom and gloom for Google's IPO, in spite of their incredible growth and margin economics. In time, the doomers were proved wrong. There's so much doom and gloom about Anthropic that directly contradicts their asto…

Google is an excellent example of the companies that followed after the initial batch of big dotcom companies. They ate Yahoo's lunch. The dotcom bust was in 2000, and Google went public in 2004. I'm betting more on the successors to this initial group of AI companies. The ones that have to build actual profitable businesses.

Google was easily 10x better than any of their competition. It was effectively alone in the market.

Most of us were using 56k modems to access the internet back then, Google's search returned results within a couple of seconds. Yahoo, Lycos, Excite, Alta-Vista were still loading. Then the search results themselves were so good you could often just pick the first result. They eventually added a button which just took you directly to the first result. Which I used.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#297

Post by hellojesus »

groundzeros2015 wrote: post #272
sigmar wrote: post #270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

imho Anthropic publicly posting accurate information about their revenue and operations would be a step in a healthy direction for the economy/markets if there's an "AI bust blast" coming. This filing is movement towards that

The filing isn’t the problem. The indices dumping into them is.

Agreed. Ben Felix has a video about this, I think he focused on SpaceX in it. The problem with the standard total market funds is they gobble it up right away. There are funds that do wait some period of time to purchase new ipos to let them smooth out, but I'm not sure those are typically available in 401k plans.

Hedge funds already know broad based mutuals will have to purchase these so can sneak in before them and then sell to them for a marginal gain. Mayhaps the newest strategy for exiting is generating so much hype that you're guaranteed an exit by retail retirement funds?

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#298

Post by ai_fry_ur_brain »

EugeneG wrote: post #295
ai_fry_ur_brain wrote: post #290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well we are far more corrupt and in the last stages of late stage capitalism. 15 day waiting period for Nasdaq 100. Your 401k is now the exit liquidty for the country's 5k richest people. I really dont see how America doesnt collapse on the weight of its own corruption. But maybe the was the plan all along....

The stock market (and in particular the US stock market) has been an incredibly positive influence on the average American's 401k... Great driver of allowing Americans and beyond to share in the upside of successful companies... big reason why Americans can retire. Of course, it doesn't always go up... I think you have an oddly negative bias.

[flagged]

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#299

Post by JacobAsmuth »

johnQdeveloper wrote: post #287
JacobAsmuth wrote: post #281

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Opus 4.8 is a significant coding quality gain over 4.5 - I'm not sure there's any third party testing which indicates otherwise.

My experience isn't consistent with it being significant (or really any) quality gains on actual real world usage for me or the team I'm on.

The plural of anecdote is not data. What are your evals telling you?

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#300

Post by dmoy »

ai_fry_ur_brain wrote: post #290
EugeneG wrote: post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Reminds me of this... During Apple's 1980 Initial Public Offering (IPO), Massachusetts regulators banned residents from purchasing the stock. The state's securities regulators deemed the offering "too risky" and "over-valued," enforcing a state rule that prohibited IPOs with a price exceeding 25 times earnings.

Well we are far more corrupt and in the last stages of late stage capitalism. 15 day waiting period for Nasdaq 100. Your 401k is now the exit liquidty for the country's 5k richest people. I really dont see how America doesnt collapse on the weight of its own corruption. But maybe the was the plan all along....

Maybe don't buy QQQ in your 401k then if you're concerned about nasdaq100 inclusion
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