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Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

anthropic.com

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Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#261

Post by pseudosavant »

panarky wrote: post #224
pseudosavant wrote: post #197

Up until this point, the potential for an AI bust blast radius was limited to corporate investors, but this is going to cause regular retail/401k investors to get exposure, which could have far bigger impacts on a downturn. Not to mention the insane wake-up call it is going to be for these AI stocks when 3 months after they launch they have to start making earnings calls and showing their financials. That quarter-by-…

If we're doing historical comparisons, there was so much hype for AOL and Yahoo that drove valuations far beyond the economics. In time, the hypesters were proved wrong. In contrast, there was overwhelming doom and gloom for Google's IPO, in spite of their incredible growth and margin economics. In time, the doomers were proved wrong. There's so much doom and gloom about Anthropic that directly contradicts their asto…

Google is an excellent example of the companies that followed after the initial batch of big dotcom companies. They ate Yahoo's lunch. The dotcom bust was in 2000, and Google went public in 2004.

I'm betting more on the successors to this initial group of AI companies. The ones that have to build actual profitable businesses.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#262

Post by card_zero »

panarky wrote: post #224
pseudosavant wrote: post #197

Up until this point, the potential for an AI bust blast radius was limited to corporate investors, but this is going to cause regular retail/401k investors to get exposure, which could have far bigger impacts on a downturn. Not to mention the insane wake-up call it is going to be for these AI stocks when 3 months after they launch they have to start making earnings calls and showing their financials. That quarter-by-…

If we're doing historical comparisons, there was so much hype for AOL and Yahoo that drove valuations far beyond the economics. In time, the hypesters were proved wrong. In contrast, there was overwhelming doom and gloom for Google's IPO, in spite of their incredible growth and margin economics. In time, the doomers were proved wrong. There's so much doom and gloom about Anthropic that directly contradicts their asto…

So you're raising the topic of vibes, to tell us to ignore them.

Most of the time, they're wrong half the time.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#263

Post by missedthecue »

parthdesai wrote: post #79
40acres wrote: post #65

After years of companies refusing to go public (looking at you Stripe), it's almost refreshing to see a hyped tech go actually IPO.

Is it actually refreshing? It's actually refreshing to see Stripe staying private for so long. That means, they have a sustainable business model, and can take on projects that might benefit users in the long term despite negative short term consequences instead of focus on growing at all cost for the most part.

Stripe has done 24 funding rounds. It's not really sustainability, they've just created a second market that isn't so public.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#264

Post by ausbah »

zipy124 wrote: post #112
thewebguyd wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

S&P 500 requires trailing 12 month profitability to be on the index. We won't see any of these on the S&P for at least a year or more.

The profitability requirements are potentially being dropped. Consultation just closed and may be implemented as soon as next week.

https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/indexnews/announ...

actual consultation link

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#265

Post by postflopclarity »

panarky wrote: post #235
roadside_picnic wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's more insidious than that. These IPOs aren't being rushed, they were waiting for all the pieces to be in place to force 401ks and other retirement plans to buy these IPOs. The most recent change was the NASDAQ adopting the "fast change rule" which allows newly IPO'd companies to be listed in the index after only 15 days of trading. This rule was decided March 30, 2026 and only came into effect May 1, 2026. The pl…

Nonsense. The extremely small float of these offerings will make index weights a rounding error. Ask your LLM of choice to compare the likely value of shares to be held by index funds with the market cap of each of these companies.

except that they changed the index rules to OVERweight them because of their small float.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#266

Post by Esophagus4 »

It’s hard to imagine there’s much upside left for retail to capture at this point.

How much bigger can they get when they’re already 1/5 the size of the world’s largest company?

It seems like the chance of retail making a killing on these IPOs like they did with Amazon (+2200x since IPO) or Nvidia are slim. The entire S&P is $60T.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#268

Post by lgfrbcsgo »

giancarlostoro wrote: post #196
cmiles8 wrote: post #25

There is a mad rush to get these IPOs out the door before the market sneezes.

Anthropic unlike OpenAI has reached an operating profit of 559 million, which is really telling. They've also been migrating enterprise customers to API pricing, which is likely part of why they've become so profitable.

SpaceX is selling their capacity to Anthrophic at a reduced rate in May and June [1]. It's possible that they're only profitable because of this discount.

[1] https://www.wheresyoured.at/anthropics-profitability-swindle...

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#269

Post by boelboel »

panarky wrote: post #256
ifwinterco wrote: post #240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think it's really doom and gloom, that's mostly on here. The normies are all still excited/scared and the valuation based on secondary trading is going up and up. Maybe not quite as crazy as the dot com boom but I'd say the current environment for AI and related equities is a lot closer to the mid/late 90s than 2004

Normies are on fire for SpaceX, where the economics are horrible and the hype is off the charts. Normies have never heard of Anthropic, where the economics are incredible and doom vibes are pervasive.

I think both have a similar amount of people who know about it. But it might just be my circle which is mostly in finance and some in engineering/medicine. These are also the type of people who actually invest. There's little doom vibes among those who're older if anything they're the one who think we'll get to some agi type situation.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#270

Post by sigmar »

pseudosavant wrote: post #197

Up until this point, the potential for an AI bust blast radius was limited to corporate investors, but this is going to cause regular retail/401k investors to get exposure, which could have far bigger impacts on a downturn. Not to mention the insane wake-up call it is going to be for these AI stocks when 3 months after they launch they have to start making earnings calls and showing their financials. That quarter-by-…

imho Anthropic publicly posting accurate information about their revenue and operations would be a step in a healthy direction for the economy/markets if there's an "AI bust blast" coming. This filing is movement towards that
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