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Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

anthropic.com

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Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#251

Post by rchaud »

IrishTechie wrote: post #234
glitch13 wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Going public" means something completely different now, especially for these companies in the news (Anthropic, OpenAI, SpaceX, etc). Going public used to mean selling a portion of your company for the capital required to grow. Ideally John Q. Public buys stock, the company grows, and they can sell the stock for more money. These companies already have the capital required to grow from private investment, and already…

I recall thinking the same thing when Apple and Microsoft hit $1tn. Here we are less than a decade later and they’re up 3-400%.

Microsoft and Apple had decades of profitable years before hitting a trillion. AI companies are seeking trillion dollar IPOs without profits, selling a service well below its actual cost.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#252

Post by [deleted] »

guluarte wrote: post #216
cmiles8 wrote: post #25

There is a mad rush to get these IPOs out the door before the market sneezes.

OpenAI, SpaceX, and this IPO: I don’t think there’s enough liquidity for all of them. Investors may pull money out of other investments, and hopefully that doesn’t cascade into a full market crash.

[deleted]

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#254

Post by htrp »

pseudosavant wrote: post #226
bwhiting2356 wrote: post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Amazon was founded in 1994

And who would have thought it was the online bookstore that would be the big survivor of the dotcom era? They were a comparatively small player relative to AOL/Yahoo/etc at the time of the dotcom bust. Which company is the 1994 Amazon of AI now?

Cohere is the forgotten AI company founded by the Attention is all you need team....

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#255

Post by JumpCrisscross »

s1artibartfast wrote: post #103
roadside_picnic wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As you likely know, rules have recently been changed that basically force many 401k funds to invest in these IPOs while simultaneously having a relatively small number of the initial IPO to be sold to the public forcing the funds to by at inflated prices. The bubble won't pop until these retirement accounts of have been raided.

What are the 401k rule changes? I am aware that indexes changed their rules

> indexes changed their rules

NASDAQ changed its rules. Which I’m now 90% sure was a brilliant marketing move, given nobody followed that index until they did this.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#256

Post by panarky »

ifwinterco wrote: post #240
panarky wrote: post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we're doing historical comparisons, there was so much hype for AOL and Yahoo that drove valuations far beyond the economics. In time, the hypesters were proved wrong. In contrast, there was overwhelming doom and gloom for Google's IPO, in spite of their incredible growth and margin economics. In time, the doomers were proved wrong. There's so much doom and gloom about Anthropic that directly contradicts their asto…

I don't think it's really doom and gloom, that's mostly on here. The normies are all still excited/scared and the valuation based on secondary trading is going up and up. Maybe not quite as crazy as the dot com boom but I'd say the current environment for AI and related equities is a lot closer to the mid/late 90s than 2004

Normies are on fire for SpaceX, where the economics are horrible and the hype is off the charts.

Normies have never heard of Anthropic, where the economics are incredible and doom vibes are pervasive.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#257

Post by davedx »

panarky wrote: post #224
pseudosavant wrote: post #197

Up until this point, the potential for an AI bust blast radius was limited to corporate investors, but this is going to cause regular retail/401k investors to get exposure, which could have far bigger impacts on a downturn. Not to mention the insane wake-up call it is going to be for these AI stocks when 3 months after they launch they have to start making earnings calls and showing their financials. That quarter-by-…

If we're doing historical comparisons, there was so much hype for AOL and Yahoo that drove valuations far beyond the economics. In time, the hypesters were proved wrong. In contrast, there was overwhelming doom and gloom for Google's IPO, in spite of their incredible growth and margin economics. In time, the doomers were proved wrong. There's so much doom and gloom about Anthropic that directly contradicts their asto…

"until I can get a few shares at a reasonable valuation"

I doubt you will. Most likely IPO reference price will be like SpaceX's, 100x ARR or so.

You're better off buying Google who own a huge chunk of Anthropic at a much saner average.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#258

Post by roysting »

chasd00 wrote: post #227
thomascountz wrote: post #28

SpaceX submitted an amendment to their S-1 today[1] [1]: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026...

The SpaceX IPO confuses me, with the kind of testing they do the stock price is going to be a roller coaster ride. Every splashdown with an explosion, even if planned, is going to impact the stock price. Are they hurting for cash? Why even IPO if you don't need the cash?

Patrick Boyle has an excellent presentation (YT) on the SpaceX IPO. In case you thought you knew it was bad … it’s way worse than you think.

https://youtu.be/IHD8BDFYyGI

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#259

Post by JumpCrisscross »

freediddy wrote: post #9

This is the first time I've seen a Public, Confidential S-1 filing.

> This is the first time I've seen a Public, Confidential S-1 filing

Welcome to 2012 [1].

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Form_S-1#:~:text=Under%20the%2...

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#260

Post by EugeneG »

pseudosavant wrote: post #197

Up until this point, the potential for an AI bust blast radius was limited to corporate investors, but this is going to cause regular retail/401k investors to get exposure, which could have far bigger impacts on a downturn. Not to mention the insane wake-up call it is going to be for these AI stocks when 3 months after they launch they have to start making earnings calls and showing their financials. That quarter-by-…

Reminds me of this... During Apple's 1980 Initial Public Offering (IPO), Massachusetts regulators banned residents from purchasing the stock. The state's securities regulators deemed the offering "too risky" and "over-valued," enforcing a state rule that prohibited IPOs with a price exceeding 25 times earnings.
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