Bubbles can be great for short-term returns.
I just hope pension funds and other long-term investors don’t end up buying into them.
Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC
221–230 of 476 posts
Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC
#222Earlier quoted context omitted.
I thought you could intelligently allocate 401k. I don’t think mine was etfs of nasdaq or s&p for some time now. Ever since Tesla got in
Most (all?) 401k plans limit you to a pre-picked list of ETFs and mutual funds you can invest in. Not to mention the standard advice for decades has been 'broad market index fund'.
Definitely not all. Look into 401(k) self-directed brokerage accounts.
Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC
#223Earlier quoted context omitted.
I thought you could intelligently allocate 401k. I don’t think mine was etfs of nasdaq or s&p for some time now. Ever since Tesla got in
Most (all?) 401k plans limit you to a pre-picked list of ETFs and mutual funds you can invest in. Not to mention the standard advice for decades has been 'broad market index fund'.
If your plan uses Fidelity you can move your 401k into Brokeragelink and that lets you pick individual stocks. Schwab, TIAA, Alight and some others also have something similar.
Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC
#224Up until this point, the potential for an AI bust blast radius was limited to corporate investors, but this is going to cause regular retail/401k investors to get exposure, which could have far bigger impacts on a downturn. Not to mention the insane wake-up call it is going to be for these AI stocks when 3 months after they launch they have to start making earnings calls and showing their financials. That quarter-by-…
If we're doing historical comparisons, there was so much hype for AOL and Yahoo that drove valuations far beyond the economics. In time, the hypesters were proved wrong.
In contrast, there was overwhelming doom and gloom for Google's IPO, in spite of their incredible growth and margin economics. In time, the doomers were proved wrong.
There's so much doom and gloom about Anthropic that directly contradicts their astounding growth and margins. For a long-term investor, Anthropic is looking a lot more like Google not AOL.
I can only hope the doomer narrative dominates until I can get a few shares at a reasonable valuation.
Vibes are almost always wrong. Ignore the vibes and focus on revenue growth rates and inference margins.
Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC
#225Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm interested in your argument but who needs a price for what exactly? Like token costs are unsustainable argument? Or are you saying they need a stock price to keep their valuation high?
Token cost might be sustainable but still not profitable enough to make up for the costs of either training or the investments gifted away until it became profitable. They also might have no relevant moat that allows them to enshittify enough. But mainly, they are in "I need to kill whole industries to be worth it" tiers of investment.
> But mainly, they are in "I need to kill whole industries to be worth it" tiers of investment.
Yes agreed. Coding is a pretty big industry though in and of itself. Same with healthcare, legal, etc etc etc. Of course we have zero model today that can seriously kill an industry, but if you look at (1) how good things are today (insanely fast and rapid adoption) and (2) robust performance trends from many complimentary sources, it's kind of inevitable and I haven't really heard a coherent steel man argument for why "killing whole industries" is somehow a far-fetched idea.
> still not profitable enough to make up for the costs of either training or the investments gifted away until it became profitable.
Regardless of the weeds of the economics today, you have a clearly valuable asset that at the very least already a must-have for enterprise and will become even more essential over time. There is token economics that either already do or will make sense. You will have some sort of marginal cost + profit margin that things will stabilize at. You can pay a premium for high quality frontier models. "But it costs more in R&D to fund this!" ok but then token costs will increase. Why is this some sort of death knell?
Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC
#226Up until this point, the potential for an AI bust blast radius was limited to corporate investors, but this is going to cause regular retail/401k investors to get exposure, which could have far bigger impacts on a downturn. Not to mention the insane wake-up call it is going to be for these AI stocks when 3 months after they launch they have to start making earnings calls and showing their financials. That quarter-by-…
Amazon was founded in 1994
And who would have thought it was the online bookstore that would be the big survivor of the dotcom era? They were a comparatively small player relative to AOL/Yahoo/etc at the time of the dotcom bust. Which company is the 1994 Amazon of AI now?
Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC
#227SpaceX submitted an amendment to their S-1 today[1] [1]: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026...
The SpaceX IPO confuses me, with the kind of testing they do the stock price is going to be a roller coaster ride. Every splashdown with an explosion, even if planned, is going to impact the stock price. Are they hurting for cash? Why even IPO if you don't need the cash?
Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC
#228AI may be the first major technology cycle where access to capital and power and physical infrastructure matters almost as much as the software itself
Railroads seem like a good parallel: right of way, coal, and iron all were huge factors for success. That was greater CAPEX but the parallel does break down somewhat since railroads had huge, immediate demand and everything but fuel had much longer service lives.
Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC
#229Earlier quoted context omitted.
I thought you could intelligently allocate 401k. I don’t think mine was etfs of nasdaq or s&p for some time now. Ever since Tesla got in
Most (all?) 401k plans limit you to a pre-picked list of ETFs and mutual funds you can invest in. Not to mention the standard advice for decades has been 'broad market index fund'.
Afaik this is the first time that an IPO is big that it immediately gets a significant share of a broad market index fund. The rules among the providers are actually quite diverse, so it's complicated. The Rational Reminder podcast discussed it in April: https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/406
Their conclusion: It might be bad, but so be it. No need to change strategy.
Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC
#230Earlier quoted context omitted.
Exactly. Incredibly hard to understand what hard, non-headline-quoting, steel man arguments there are about how exactly the market will hiccup. And as if all of the AI companies somehow know this and are looking to IPO themselves out when anthropic revenue is growing > 10x per year for multiple years. Feels like a massive disconnect between “this will all implode” people and any real numbers.
All rallies do come to an end. The fact that we all don't know exactly what will cause this one to end is exactly part of the problem and 100% doesn't mean it won't happen. Usually some external shock spooks the market and a massive sell off happens. So what could happen, any number of things. An obvious near term issue might be inflation increases dramatically in the US (on account of the oil shock), causing interes…
> All rallies do come to an end. The fact that we all don't know exactly what will cause this one to end is exactly part of the problem and 100% doesn't mean it won't happen. Usually some external shock spooks the market and a massive sell off happens.
Yes sure, but that statement contains zero information -- why do you believe it will end in a time short enough for the "market bubble" comments to even make sense?
External shocks -- sure of course. Inflation problems in US -- absolutely, it's a ticking time bomb with a debt crisis looming. Housing market I don't really know anything about but I'll take your word for it.
But all of this has been true for awhile, and could have been stated with equal veracity over the course of the last 5 years at least. Your beliefs shape your actions; so why does this belief shape actions any differently than it has earlier?
> ut honestly, I'll tell you after it happens and it will happen. Having lived through a few of these now when everyone tells you it's a sure thing and prices go up for ever you get an inkling you are near the pop.
Again totally true, I have also lived through them and expect more. But "these companies are IPO'ing because they know the market will pop" is kind of the thing that I was trying to address. For all the signals of market danger, there are plenty of optimistic signals all over the data. Growth is pretty robust across all sectors today.