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Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

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Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#191

Post by stockresearcher »

BoggleOhYeah wrote: post #174
calgarymicro wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As long as it meets float and cap requirements Even with the CRSP indexes this was recently changed to make fast-tracking for these IPOs easier.[0] > CRSP indexes were also recently changed to better accommodate fast entry . . . Previously, these screens included having at least 10% of shares qualifying as freely tradeable (known as float shares outstanding, or FSO). However, in April the methodology changed to all…

The person I was responding to was speaking to the fast-track concept, which has been a thing in CRSP indexes for a quite a while. The float requirement changes are directly due to these huge IPOs only placing small amounts of float on the market. Their goal seems to be tracking the market and making this change prevents them from excluding two notable companies from their indexes. IIRC CRSP indexes are float-weighte…

Strongly recommend reading this linked paper, written by CRSP folks:

https://indexes.morningstar.com/insights/analysis/bltcd8e699...

These IPOs will have minuscule impact on the indexes initially. They will have a big impact if they can maintain share price in the first ranking/reconstitution after the lockup period expires.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#192

Post by physicsguy »

jknoepfler wrote: post #173
reacharavindh wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As unlikely it is to happen at scale, as a thought process - what would happen if people start selling those index funds in a mad rush? Just drives the transaction volume because those with that new money will just buy something else in the market? I know SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI will probably be a drop in the bucket in terms of scale of these funds, (free float % etc). But, is it realistic to take the money out…

While unlikely to happen at scale, by way of anecdata I'll say that I and my extended family have almost all shifted money away from funds that are heavily coupled to the fate of GenAI. The bottom is going to fall out of the market and it's going to take years to recover, I don't see any reason to suffer through that (and neither do my retirement-age relatives). I'm after steady gains in an approximately efficient ma…

If the bottom is falling out of the market in AI I think it's likely other things will fall too though.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#193

Post by bdangubic »

jknoepfler wrote: post #173
reacharavindh wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As unlikely it is to happen at scale, as a thought process - what would happen if people start selling those index funds in a mad rush? Just drives the transaction volume because those with that new money will just buy something else in the market? I know SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI will probably be a drop in the bucket in terms of scale of these funds, (free float % etc). But, is it realistic to take the money out…

While unlikely to happen at scale, by way of anecdata I'll say that I and my extended family have almost all shifted money away from funds that are heavily coupled to the fate of GenAI. The bottom is going to fall out of the market and it's going to take years to recover, I don't see any reason to suffer through that (and neither do my retirement-age relatives). I'm after steady gains in an approximately efficient ma…

example of a steady gain in an approximately efficient market if Big Tech crashes?

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#194

Post by noncoml »

snihalani wrote: post #115
thewebguyd wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

S&P 500 requires trailing 12 month profitability to be on the index. We won't see any of these on the S&P for at least a year or more.

I thought S&P also changed the rules on this one

Reading these messages is getting me discussed. Is there any fund/index fund that is not breaking the rules to allow easier pump and dump from big players?

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#195

Post by torben-friis »

aspenmartin wrote: post #186
torben-friis wrote: post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They need a price consumers can't stomach or are unwilling to pay, and without that the company is profitable but not able to justify investments. That's the argument.

I'm interested in your argument but who needs a price for what exactly? Like token costs are unsustainable argument? Or are you saying they need a stock price to keep their valuation high?

Token cost might be sustainable but still not profitable enough to make up for the costs of either training or the investments gifted away until it became profitable. They also might have no relevant moat that allows them to enshittify enough. But mainly, they are in "I need to kill whole industries to be worth it" tiers of investment.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#196

Post by giancarlostoro »

cmiles8 wrote: post #25

There is a mad rush to get these IPOs out the door before the market sneezes.

Anthropic unlike OpenAI has reached an operating profit of 559 million, which is really telling. They've also been migrating enterprise customers to API pricing, which is likely part of why they've become so profitable.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#197

Post by pseudosavant »

Up until this point, the potential for an AI bust blast radius was limited to corporate investors, but this is going to cause regular retail/401k investors to get exposure, which could have far bigger impacts on a downturn.

Not to mention the insane wake-up call it is going to be for these AI stocks when 3 months after they launch they have to start making earnings calls and showing their financials. That quarter-by-quarter pressure and scrutiny is no joke, and probably the biggest downside of going public.

I'm bullish on AI, but kind of bearish on any specific AI company. None of the initial big dotcom companies like AOL or Yahoo survived at the scale they briefly had.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#198

Post by anukin »

pseudosavant wrote: post #197

Up until this point, the potential for an AI bust blast radius was limited to corporate investors, but this is going to cause regular retail/401k investors to get exposure, which could have far bigger impacts on a downturn. Not to mention the insane wake-up call it is going to be for these AI stocks when 3 months after they launch they have to start making earnings calls and showing their financials. That quarter-by-…

I thought you could intelligently allocate 401k. I don’t think mine was etfs of nasdaq or s&p for some time now. Ever since Tesla got in

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#199

Post by pseudosavant »

nostrademons wrote: post #164
reacharavindh wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As unlikely it is to happen at scale, as a thought process - what would happen if people start selling those index funds in a mad rush? Just drives the transaction volume because those with that new money will just buy something else in the market? I know SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI will probably be a drop in the bucket in terms of scale of these funds, (free float % etc). But, is it realistic to take the money out…

If people actually dumped index funds for cash en masse it would be catastrophic. To attach some numbers, MSFT averages about 35M shares in daily volume, and that includes all the market makers, HFTs, etc. BlackRock (iShares) owns 593M shares of MSFT and Vanguard owns another 482M. Together, the amount of shares that index funds own is about a month and a half of total trading volumes. I'd bet that such a crash would…

Same old story of too big to fail. The government will "inject cash", that is borrowed, so that retirees 401k accounts don't go down. But who pays back the borrowed funds? The non-retirees. Everything is optimized for the boomer generation to be fine, who cares about anyone else?

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#200

Post by huflungdung »

pseudosavant wrote: post #197

Up until this point, the potential for an AI bust blast radius was limited to corporate investors, but this is going to cause regular retail/401k investors to get exposure, which could have far bigger impacts on a downturn. Not to mention the insane wake-up call it is going to be for these AI stocks when 3 months after they launch they have to start making earnings calls and showing their financials. That quarter-by-…

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