Really seems that this entire industry has been told it will get a MASSIVE bailout. And with Fink basically confirming so means, Hillary was right? Trump is a tyrannus dictator?
Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC
201–210 of 476 posts
Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC
#202Up until this point, the potential for an AI bust blast radius was limited to corporate investors, but this is going to cause regular retail/401k investors to get exposure, which could have far bigger impacts on a downturn. Not to mention the insane wake-up call it is going to be for these AI stocks when 3 months after they launch they have to start making earnings calls and showing their financials. That quarter-by-…
I thought you could intelligently allocate 401k. I don’t think mine was etfs of nasdaq or s&p for some time now. Ever since Tesla got in
Most (all?) 401k plans limit you to a pre-picked list of ETFs and mutual funds you can invest in. Not to mention the standard advice for decades has been 'broad market index fund'.
Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC
#203There is a mad rush to get these IPOs out the door before the market sneezes.
Is there anything structurally to prevent a super wealthy buyer from guaranteeing this essentially -- moving money and debt around in order to essentially put a floor under the stock and guarantee buy rates until the retirement fund index purchasers have time to absorb all the shares at the artificially high price? Feels to me like this is almost guaranteed to happen -- ...
Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC
#204Earlier quoted context omitted.
If you believe this is going to happen you can change the allocations of your retirement plans.
What should we be looking for?
In your 401k portal/website there's usually a setting like "I plan to retire on year X". When you set that, or something similar, there's typically a managed fund that gradually decreases risk as you approach that year. When you have lots of time before retirement you can ride the ups and downs but as you get closer the less time you have to recover from a downturn so the more conservative you want your investments.
If you're really worried and want to be conservative tell the portal you want to retire in 2030. That will allocate your investments to something conservative and you'll be more protected from a downturn. On the other hand, you'll also be equally protected from an upswing.
/not a financial advisor
Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC
#205Earlier quoted context omitted.
As unlikely it is to happen at scale, as a thought process - what would happen if people start selling those index funds in a mad rush? Just drives the transaction volume because those with that new money will just buy something else in the market? I know SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI will probably be a drop in the bucket in terms of scale of these funds, (free float % etc). But, is it realistic to take the money out…
While unlikely to happen at scale, by way of anecdata I'll say that I and my extended family have almost all shifted money away from funds that are heavily coupled to the fate of GenAI. The bottom is going to fall out of the market and it's going to take years to recover, I don't see any reason to suffer through that (and neither do my retirement-age relatives). I'm after steady gains in an approximately efficient ma…
So you’re still hedging or you 100% fled AI? I presume you have gone to a broader portfolio. But if tech crashes doesn’t everything? And isn’t tech holding up the entire market so they won’t let it happen? And how can you even avoid GenAI if people are cramming it into everything and it’s constantly shocking sectors of the market?
Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC
#206Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's more insidious than that. These IPOs aren't being rushed, they were waiting for all the pieces to be in place to force 401ks and other retirement plans to buy these IPOs. The most recent change was the NASDAQ adopting the "fast change rule" which allows newly IPO'd companies to be listed in the index after only 15 days of trading. This rule was decided March 30, 2026 and only came into effect May 1, 2026. The pl…
I get the sentiment that this is unscrupulous, however, isn't 15 days enough time to find the right price? Or will that not really happen until first quarterly earnings report, which will not occur within that 15 day window?
4-8 quarters for most tech IPOs to settle. IPOs are manufactured for the good times around young co's, so not surprising, and economic stability isn't a question of days/weeks/months.
And yes often a falling knife
This is pretty predictably wall street & federal regulators scamming normal people, retirement funds, etc, taking their fees and exit window at everyone else's expense
Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC
#207Up until this point, the potential for an AI bust blast radius was limited to corporate investors, but this is going to cause regular retail/401k investors to get exposure, which could have far bigger impacts on a downturn. Not to mention the insane wake-up call it is going to be for these AI stocks when 3 months after they launch they have to start making earnings calls and showing their financials. That quarter-by-…
Amazon was founded in 1994
Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC
#208I think this IPO will be the real test of whether the concept of a Public Benefit Corporation actually holds up in practice. Don't mess this up, Anthropic.
As a potential PBC founder I am watching this closely for sure
Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC
#209Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC
#210AI may be the first major technology cycle where access to capital and power and physical infrastructure matters almost as much as the software itself