Who’s going out of the gate first, Anthropic or Space X. Sequencing probably matters more than it should.
Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC
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Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC
#102Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's more insidious than that. These IPOs aren't being rushed, they were waiting for all the pieces to be in place to force 401ks and other retirement plans to buy these IPOs. The most recent change was the NASDAQ adopting the "fast change rule" which allows newly IPO'd companies to be listed in the index after only 15 days of trading. This rule was decided March 30, 2026 and only came into effect May 1, 2026. The pl…
I get the sentiment that this is unscrupulous, however, isn't 15 days enough time to find the right price? Or will that not really happen until first quarterly earnings report, which will not occur within that 15 day window?
The fact that you know there’s a large pool of price insensitive buyers only 15 days away has to have some price impact.
Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC
#103Earlier quoted context omitted.
Are we in a race to see who can pop the bubble first?
As you likely know, rules have recently been changed that basically force many 401k funds to invest in these IPOs while simultaneously having a relatively small number of the initial IPO to be sold to the public forcing the funds to by at inflated prices. The bubble won't pop until these retirement accounts of have been raided.
What are the 401k rule changes? I am aware that indexes changed their rules
Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC
#104This is the first time I've seen a Public, Confidential S-1 filing.
I like your sense of humor
Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC
#105Earlier quoted context omitted.
I've heard of the changes to the NASDAQ rules and I somewhat get how they make it so these stocks are included in index funds earlier than before. As far as I know, NYSE and others haven't done the same change so index funds there are "safe", i.e. will include the stocks only after a longer period, implying that it will have settled in value by then. Is that true at all? I'm sure the situation is much more complicate…
There is a huge amount of misinformation on this topic, including in this thread, at the minute. Some index funds have a very long horizon before they include them (e.g. a year). Others are "fast-tracked" (e.g. notably VTI). Most of those, however, are float-adjusted, so only the stock available for trade is considered part of the marketcap. So e.g. VTI / VTSAX will buy spacex relatively quickly after the IPO but at…
Do you have any suggested reading references?
Specifically, I do a typical 3FP and own VTSAX, but I don't read bogleheads or anything. True set-it-and-forget-it, but I do want to read more if things are shifting.
Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC
#106Earlier quoted context omitted.
At least all the index funds are obligated to, right?
Based on current rules they wouldn't included in the S&P 500 for at least several years even based on optimistic scenarios. Of course IIRC they looking into tweaking the rules to allow some handpicked extremely unprofitable companies in, due to "reasons"....
They are scared of underperfoming the market and failing to exist as an index. Losing money with everyone else is a more sustainable risk than losing money while other indexes go up.
Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC
#107SpaceX submitted an amendment to their S-1 today[1] [1]: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026...
What changed?
Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC
#108Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's more insidious than that. These IPOs aren't being rushed, they were waiting for all the pieces to be in place to force 401ks and other retirement plans to buy these IPOs. The most recent change was the NASDAQ adopting the "fast change rule" which allows newly IPO'd companies to be listed in the index after only 15 days of trading. This rule was decided March 30, 2026 and only came into effect May 1, 2026. The pl…
If you believe this is going to happen you can change the allocations of your retirement plans.
What should we be looking for?
Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC
#109Earlier quoted context omitted.
They already do both. The real competition is coming out of China right now and I doubt the Chinese government is going to let them buy out their "fast follower" AI companies that are consistently 6-12 months behind in terms of quality. That said, I'm factoring quality as in Opus 4.5/Sonnet 4.5/GPT-5.5 as break points since I haven't really seen an improvement since that point when using AI.
You speak so authoritatively about quality and performance of these models, yet there are no quantitative metrics that correlate to real world outcomes that indicate that the quality and performance of these models is anything but subjective noise and classic benchmark nonsense. A company consumed half a billion dollars worth of tokens in a month and nobody noticed anything until the bill came due. Tha $500m dollars…
Indeed Its irrelevant. Each firm will make its own cost-benefit analysis, especially since the frontier labs are raising prices.
Marketing only takes you so far in creating noise.
Its weird seeing this focus on bench marks again - PC's did this for quite some time. But in the end it came down to - what does all this additional horsepower let you do? Oh create interesting apps, multi-tasking etc. Which was really the value-add.
Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC
#110Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's more insidious than that. These IPOs aren't being rushed, they were waiting for all the pieces to be in place to force 401ks and other retirement plans to buy these IPOs. The most recent change was the NASDAQ adopting the "fast change rule" which allows newly IPO'd companies to be listed in the index after only 15 days of trading. This rule was decided March 30, 2026 and only came into effect May 1, 2026. The pl…
How do these people sleep at night coming up with schemes like that?
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