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U.S. allows Anthropic to release Mythos AI to ‘trusted’ US organizations

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Re: U.S. allows Anthropic to release Mythos AI to ‘trusted’ US organizations

#721

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there any evidence at all that would convince you that they're trying to mitigate real risks that actually exist?

Is there any evidence at all that would convince you they're just blowing smoke up our asses in pursuit of money?

Sure! When Mythos was first announced, there was an obvious prediction to make: if what Anthropic says is even remotely true, the participants will start talking over the next few months about how Mythos has been a big deal for them. Then that happened (https://blog.mozilla.org/en/privacy-security/ai-security-zer..., https://blog.cloudflare.com/cyber-frontier-models/, https://blogs.cisco.com/cisco-on-cisco/how-cisco-defends-aga...), so I became convinced, although I shouldn't make it sound like I ever found the idea implausible.

I might be un-convinced if someone published a clear technical explanation of what error these companies have all made. The only counterarguments I've seen so far are vague speculation about how bubble dynamics might incentivize them to say it worked great, and to me that's not persuasive.

Re: U.S. allows Anthropic to release Mythos AI to ‘trusted’ US organizations

#722

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think this is a bit too deterministic. Even if Europe is in a weak position economically, "the US does not need the rest of the world" seems overstated

I would even argue that the USA is imploding without China. The normal USA citicen can't afford a car anymore. Either they make it a lot cheaper over there or they have to continue pressue the USA Citicents to accept that they are not allowed to buy cheap China products. It will be quitei nteresting to see if we will see a global rebalancing of manufactoring and co around the globe for USA, Europe and China or a over…

This is not how economists think. They see the US, go "Coal mining, check. Iron mining, check, so you can make steel inside US. More than enough people, check. Oil, check. As well as 1000 other things, and mostly, the checks are there", and conclude the US could produce cheap cars. So if it makes sense or it becomes urgent enough, it will happen. Nothing is really preventing the US from doing everything itself, and doing that will improve the balance of trade (while making Americans much poorer).

In other words, the problem of "The normal USA citizen can't afford a car anymore" can be understood in a different way. That can be fixed, by paying people less (yes, less, really, think about it)

The US can drop it's imports and do essentially everything itself.

Right now people can't afford a car because the US is so equal, meaning they can't compete with labor in India or ... But you could "fix" that, by creating more inequality in the US (do what we effectively do now, worldwide, but within the US. Forbid people immigrating from California to New York. Move all banks to New York, build factories in California. Pay people in California 20% what they make in New York for the same job), and production will move back to the US.

And if that offends you, please understand that's exactly what we're doing now. Just replace California and New York with India or China and New York with, well New York, or Washington, and that's exactly the system we have. That's the system the EU is trying to create in the EU.

Doesn't work that way for exports (EU, or China, or to a lesser extent, India). The EU is an export block that's rich getting out competed by export blocks that are poor ... Now THAT is a difficult problem to solve. Not that EU politicians are even trying.

The US is not doing better because US politicians are better than EU ones. They just have a much easier problem to solve. And, of course, both US and EU politicians are failing, but the consequences are much bigger in the EU.

For example, the EU is in fact making it harder to immigrate WITHIN the block, despite "free movement", and is creating massive differences in pay for the same work, which is apparently what socialism stands for:

Typical after-tax pay for supermarket cashier:

Netherlands: 2550 euro (after tax), for 36 hours of work ~ 15 euro/hour

Greece: 1050 euro (after tax), for 40 hours of work ~ 6 euro/hour

Oh and that's not where it ends. You get way more social protection and medical in the Netherlands ... for paying less in tax. The EU is purposefully creating inequality to solve the problem of rich Dutch people not getting richer fast enough. It's only within the same country that there is less inequality in the EU. And, of course, the EU has been making it worse, not better, for about 18 years now. They're not about to stop. The US hasn't even decently started doing this yet.

Re: U.S. allows Anthropic to release Mythos AI to ‘trusted’ US organizations

#724
post #718

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What exactly American services did to you that stopped to trust them?

Nothing. It doesn't matter though. If we can't trust the US administration won't just apply 50% taxes tomorrow because some EU representative said something mean to the president, then we can't rely on goods or services exported by the USA anymore. It's just chaotic. Chaos isn't good for business. What if Microsoft were instructed, on short notice, to block EU customers from using Entra over a trade dispute? If the i…

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Re: U.S. allows Anthropic to release Mythos AI to ‘trusted’ US organizations

#725

Earlier quoted context omitted.

None of them have asserted that export controls apply to whatever domestic distribution the administration says that never leaves the country.

Before you offer legal advice, you should at least check the legal definition of "export": > The EAR definition of “export” extends beyond the transportation of physical goods outside the U.S. > A “Deemed export” is the release of technology or source code to a foreign national in the U.S. The release is “deemed” to be an export to the last permanent residence status/citizenship of the foreign national. This can occu…

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Re: U.S. allows Anthropic to release Mythos AI to ‘trusted’ US organizations

#726
post #718

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nothing. It doesn't matter though. If we can't trust the US administration won't just apply 50% taxes tomorrow because some EU representative said something mean to the president, then we can't rely on goods or services exported by the USA anymore. It's just chaotic. Chaos isn't good for business. What if Microsoft were instructed, on short notice, to block EU customers from using Entra over a trade dispute? If the i…

[dead]

Point taken, but as a European, it doesn’t really make a difference whether it was the election system or the popular vote - either way, this was possible, and there’s nothing to suggest it won’t happen again.

Re: U.S. allows Anthropic to release Mythos AI to ‘trusted’ US organizations

#727

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Another one is thermal vision cameras. Anything above 9fps (I guess an arbitrary cutoff to do with night-vision goggles) is export controlled. This is despite the technology being very valuable for many industrial and hobby applications.

If that was a guesstimate on frame rate it's likely off. Regardless of US controls, I can from Australia buy a high quality 50 fps thermal scope with built in 1000m (or ~ 1000 yard) laser range finder from Hangzhou, China. ie. Why lock the stable at 9 fps when out on the open plain 50 fps is already running free.

The US government obviously has no control over what China sends to Australia, so it this case the cat is out of the bag. However I can assure you the limit is still real for US companies: https://oem.flir.com/support/support-center/knowledge-base/a...

Re: U.S. allows Anthropic to release Mythos AI to ‘trusted’ US organizations

#728

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is the rest of the world really that dependent on emerging AI? I don’t think so. The US could cut off all foreign access to AI, nobody would notice.

Unless your country still use only analogue technology your country would definitely will be at the mercy of the country with AI superiority. Mythos showed how good it is at finding vulnerabilities and attack vectors for digital infrastructure. Imagine an attack on power grid which would result in a days long blackout in the middle of winter?

> your country would definitely will be at the mercy of the country with AI superiority

People claim this, but it doesn't seem to be the case at all. We have multiple ongoing conflicts between countries currently, and we're not seeing huge gains from those with more access to AI.

Re: U.S. allows Anthropic to release Mythos AI to ‘trusted’ US organizations

#729

If this becomes the norm, what incentive does the rest of the world have to keep their markets open to the US? If US companies have a large unfair advantage such that domestic competitors are no longer able to compete, then wouldn't it make sense for governments around the world to ban or tariff US products and services? If I was responsible for national economic policy, I would place this at the top of my non-emerge…

> The world needs to act quick before their industries fail.

It's a cost problem. If you want to try for a SOTA model, you're going to need to spend big time.

Germany spent ~$115B last year on it's defense, roughly 2% of it's GDP.

In contrast, ~$145B was spent last year just on AI infrastructure by Meta, and, well no one talks about Meta winning any AI races.

Re: U.S. allows Anthropic to release Mythos AI to ‘trusted’ US organizations

#730

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Usually export controls are applied to stuff where some significant % is made in America so a few US based engineers could make the project export controllable.

Or in the case of ASML machines, any company you can pressure to comply with your policies either by restricting their access to the technology you control or politics between governments.

But do they want to start a game of chicken with Google? Doing it to Anthropic is one thing, they're much smaller and less B2C. But Google is far more powerful and likely to defend their UK/EU business because they're also fucked if they don't.
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