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Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

economist.com

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Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#571

Post by throwaway63467 »

jillesvangurp wrote: post #535

Maybe to counter some of the apparently widely expected doom and gloom: - bubbles are notoriously unpredictable and generally don't happen when they are loudly and widely proclaimed to happen any minute now. - large scale infrastructure spending tends to be really good for economies. These three companies are creating lots of jobs that are mostly related to construction, energy infrastructure, hardware spending, etc.…

I think so too I’m just worried about how unequally these gains will be distributed, for myself I am quite pessimistic thinking that all these gains will not benefit my life, if at all it will move the needle more towards making my expertise and skills easily replaceable by switching human capital for agentic capital. So yeah really happy for Musk to finally make his one millionth million dollars but personally I’m middle aged and still struggling financially wondering if I can ever live comfortably or retire.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#572

Post by mgh2 »

augstein wrote: post #105

For SpaceX (and possible the others): Yes it can, since they changed the rules to force over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. From https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065 : "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k a…

The crypto market is 2.5T, essentially money parked in nonproductive assets. A simple public awakening and reallocation will suffice.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#573

Post by olalonde »

sdevonoes wrote: post #438
olalonde wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Comments like these make me feel like we're living in different worlds. I use LLMs multiple times a day and they've significantly improved my quality of life. They are also steadily becoming more useful over time (e.g. now solving math problems).

It’s because people value different things. I could not care less if LLMs make me push code faster to prod. Couldn’t care less if they improve my emails grammar. Couldn’t care less if they crack one unsolved math problem.

You do not care about these things in general or it's the idea that an LLM is involved that makes you not value them?

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#574

Post by baobabKoodaa »

chii wrote: post #436
FriedPickles wrote: post #384

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The money still comes from somewhere. In this case, those index funds will be forced to trim holdings of other companies. So it's cannibalizing other parts of the stock market.

which, if true, would make an arbitrage opportunity for a fund that explicitly excludes these high valuation targets but buys those trimmed companies (because for trimming to have happened, they must've been sold unwillingly and thus must be under-priced).

That's not what arbitrage means

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#575

Post by djeastm »

iLoveOncall wrote: post #481
saidnooneever wrote: post #456

Earlier quoted context omitted.

i read it as most likely people will lose their retirements if the companies goes bust. is that correct? in my country now they move to new pension model which will allow more aggressive investments with them. i am worried it will just get sent to these bros and i'll work until i die.

No, it's wrong. Amazon is worth $2.81T right now and only represents 4.03% of the S&P500. So a $1T share would represent less than 2% of the S&P500. This is significant for a single company, and 6% for 3 shit-tier companies (SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic) is even more significant, but we're far from "losing retirement if they go bust"-levels.

That's if everyone were acting perfectly rationally, but a world in which those three companies go bankrupt would have everyone panic selling every equity possible like it's the endtimes.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#576

Post by dgellow »

rvba wrote: post #531
romanovcode wrote: post #473

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The gamble is that you either succeed or fail. If you try nothing you'll work until you die regardless. Current system: Work until you die. New system collapses: Work until you die. New system lucks out: Probably get returns (pension).

I doubt that a FAANG programmer from hacker news has to work till they die. You are doing something wrong. Current system isnt great but works. Just fear uncertainity doubt here.

Not everybody on HN is in a comfy FAANG role

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#577

Post by spacebanana7 »

threetonesun wrote: post #191
olalonde wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Comments like these make me feel like we're living in different worlds. I use LLMs multiple times a day and they've significantly improved my quality of life. They are also steadily becoming more useful over time (e.g. now solving math problems).

I’d love it if for once someone on here saying LLMs are some life changing apparatus would give a single example.

I used Gemini to fix my new boiler by taking various photos and asking it for help. It saved me a plumber call-out (this was a user error issue, nothing safety critical).

Gemini also told me about some obscure procedures to fix my wedding paperwork after it’d been submitted with typos.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#578

Post by collabs »

ashdksnndck wrote: post #484
hliyan wrote: post #471

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been told the following (obviously negative) narrative. Can someone verify/refute some of these? I've put (?) next to questionable claims. 1. Twitter is purchased with debt 2. Debt is transferred to xAI via acquisition of X/Twitter 3. Debt is further transferred to SpaceX via acquisition of xAI 4. SpaceX IPO offered at extreme valuation 5. Index fund inclusion rules waived for SpaceX IPO: profitability requireme…

The twitter debt is a negligible portion of the money at stake here. It’s a footnote compared to the trillions of dollars in wealth that are moving around. We are only talking about it because the internet commentariat has special interest in twitter. Not worth wasting time thinking about it if you are deciding how to allocate your portfolio. Nevertheless it is part of a pattern of weird deals in Elon’s companies. He…

Sure, I don't like him either but it shouldn't be about him. It should be about the institutions we trusted to keep our index funds safe. Or was this always based on "vibes"? Was VOO never safe? Was it always possible for the people in charge of the stock market to simply include some money pit into our retirement funds? I feel like the people responsible for these decisions must fear life in prison or this will keep happening.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#579

Post by ab5tract »

Ray20 wrote: post #563
moffkalast wrote: post #460

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The reason they're doing that is because traditional European ponzi scheme pension systems don't work with shrinking populations, so actually we're working till we die in either case unless automation taxes pay for it.

> unless automation taxes pay for it But this doesn't solve the problem in any way; it simply leads to production drop. I mean, this is literally the logic of every communist government in the 20th century. They had the same logic that "given the mechanization of agriculture, food practically produces itself; you just need to throw a seed in the ground and give it a couple of tractor rides, and the earth will do the…

There were so many contributing factors to those famines but my understanding is that it was far and away the broken incentives for reporting failures as successes to avoid immediate head chopping.

There has yet to be an attempt at a centrally planned economy that actually had accurate data to plan with.

Not advocating for central planning but the important point is that these failure modes are possible under any tyrannical regime. For an example of where capitalist competition fell down in a similar way, look no further than the Irish potato famines.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#580

Post by baobabKoodaa »

nixon_why69 wrote: post #182
jandrewrogers wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you are growing revenue at a high rate then taking profit is a misallocation of resources. That is short-term thinking. It is much better to reinvest in revenue growth. You can take small profit now or much larger profit later. Insisting that companies need to be profitable even when growing revenue rapidly is failing the marshmallow test.

The point is that the unit economics are way worse because inference is expensive. Cost of goods sold matters, even if you're reinvesting profits.

Anthropic is not MoviePass. Its unit economics will be fine after it decides to optimize for profitability.
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