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Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

economist.com

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Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#161

Post by spikehoppins »

augstein wrote: post #105

For SpaceX (and possible the others): Yes it can, since they changed the rules to force over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. From https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065 : "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k a…

Do you have a source for the $30 million claim? It'd be nice to work out the math. Not _all_ of 401k funds / index funds are going to go to SpaceX.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#162

Post by jandrewrogers »

testrun wrote: post #86
joegibbs wrote: post #75

Anthropic at $1t for an IPO vs Google at $23b in 2004 sounds insane but Google's revenue at the time was $2.7b while Anthropic's already at $47b, so a valuation at about 20x vs 10x revenue. Anthropic also has very high revenue growth (50x since 2024), it doesn't seems quite as insane as it could be.

That is revenue. What is the net profit?

If you are growing revenue at a high rate then taking profit is a misallocation of resources. That is short-term thinking. It is much better to reinvest in revenue growth.

You can take small profit now or much larger profit later. Insisting that companies need to be profitable even when growing revenue rapidly is failing the marshmallow test.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#163

Post by JumpCrisscross »

burnte wrote: post #159
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If this is a bubble... The pop stage will be devastating... Why? It could be sudden. It could be slow and gradual. I've seen no reason it needs to be one versus the other.

Irrational exuberance rarely transitions to a rational drawn down. The minute the first selfish-actor flood-liquidates, everyone else will too. That's now runs work.

[dead]

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#164

Post by Auracle »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #12
timmg wrote: post #8

The way I've been thinking about it: there is too much money trying to pour into the market. That's why valuations are so high. Maybe getting more of these big private companies public will bring valuations down a bit. (Just my impression. No math or financial studies behind it :)

> there is too much money trying to pour into the market Keep in mind that inflation ran over 7% annualized in April [1]. [1] https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

The vast majority of that was fuel.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#165

Post by smallerize »

spikehoppins wrote: post #161
augstein wrote: post #105

For SpaceX (and possible the others): Yes it can, since they changed the rules to force over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. From https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065 : "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k a…

Do you have a source for the $30 million claim? It'd be nice to work out the math. Not _all_ of 401k funds / index funds are going to go to SpaceX.

*trillion

The 12 largest companies in the USA together have that market cap, so probably not.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#166

Post by donavanm »

carlosjobim wrote: post #80
d_burfoot wrote: post #71

> Firms in the broad Russell 3000 share index have a total market value of $79trn I sometimes try to get people to worry about the catastrophic state of American public finances by pointing out that the net national debt, including unfunded liabilities, is estimated to be $175T [0]. The government could appropriate all the equity from the top 3000 largest companies, and also the entire real estate market, and it stil…

Government debt isn't like personal debt or business debt. The treasury can choose to not honur it, and there's nothing anybody can do about it. Of course they're not going to find a market to sell more debt to after that, but wouldn't you say they already have enough? No sympathy for people and institutions who make deals with the devil and expect the government to forever enslave taxpayers to honour those deals and…

As mentioned defaults do shockingly little to change future funding. Its been years since i looked but its something like a few years of “cool down” on issuance and a few points of coupon premium. The economist has done some great, very accessible, articles on this over the years.

Second, its critical that treasury bonds are denominated in USD. The us gov controls the monetary policy and can choose to inflate away the debt over time. This is in contrast to EM debt where they get trapped with foreign denominated bonds. See also the tensions around EU debt, greece, etc.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#167

Post by lovich »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #108
augstein wrote: post #105

For SpaceX (and possible the others): Yes it can, since they changed the rules to force over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. From https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065 : "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k a…

> All three benchmarks are now structured to buy SpaceX at IPO pricing S&P has not finalized a rule change yet.

Do you think it’s more or less likely that they will make the same change as the other benchmarks?

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#168

Post by calvinmorrison »

01100011 wrote: post #146
Xunjin wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If this is a bubble... The pop stage will be devastating...

We don't let bubbles pop anymore. We print money and borrow from the future so that no one loses money on their homes and retirement accounts. The GFC changed the rules.

except the last bubble pop hit fast and hard with post covid inflation.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#169

Post by tmp10423288442 »

dragontamer wrote: post #149
tomrod wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because it is deliberately extracting cash from Mom and Pop into the robber baron's wallets?

Why would that pop the bubble? Robber Barrons existed from like 1860 through 1915 and extracted the wealth of many people, including Native American tribe lands. Like this shit can keep going until we decide enough is enough and actually change our society.

Not related - many robber barons went bankrupt in the severe economic crashes of the time, such as the Panics of 1873 and 1893. The Gilded Age continued despite bubbles popping.
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