Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI? • Hacker News Board

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#561

Post by eru » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 9:54 AM UTC

energy123 wrote: post #465

tdeck wrote: post #349

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What can those of us who are passive investors do to protect ourselves?

You protect yourself by understanding that this is one infinitesimally small cost (expressed as a fraction of your portfolio returns) that doesn't overcome the benefits of maximum diversification and the ultra-low fees of broad-based ETFs. Buy MSCI World, enjoy the 0.04% p.a. fees and minimal idiosyncratic risk, and relax. Index rebalance traders will reduce your annual returns by less (probably much less) than 0.1%,…

I broadly agree. Though I'm less pessimistic: lots of people will pay lots of attention to SpaceX and friends, and with short selling in public markets being possible, an accurate price will be established very quickly.

Remember also: index funds are some of the participants most keen to lend out their shares to short sellers. It's one of the rare ways they can boost returns above the raw index they follow.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#562

Post by eru » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 9:54 AM UTC

tshaddox wrote: post #398

bradleybuda wrote: post #371

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not buy these index funds. If you don’t want to own the entire market, don’t buy funds that seek to own the entire market. Funds like ESGV which exclude companies with poor governance have existed for a very long time - I can’t find a clear answer as to whether or not it will buy SpaceX, but I’m sure you can find funds that cater to your desires.

That ignores the actual issue here, which is the change in rules. Index funds already seek to own the entire market, and when most people chose these index funds there were rules about when newly listed stocks get purchased by the funds. And now those rules are being changed.

> Index funds already seek to own the entire market, [...]

No, it depends on the index in question.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#563

Post by Ray20 » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 9:56 AM UTC

moffkalast wrote: post #460

saidnooneever wrote: post #456

Earlier quoted context omitted.

i read it as most likely people will lose their retirements if the companies goes bust. is that correct? in my country now they move to new pension model which will allow more aggressive investments with them. i am worried it will just get sent to these bros and i'll work until i die.

The reason they're doing that is because traditional European ponzi scheme pension systems don't work with shrinking populations, so actually we're working till we die in either case unless automation taxes pay for it.

> unless automation taxes pay for it

But this doesn't solve the problem in any way; it simply leads to production drop.

I mean, this is literally the logic of every communist government in the 20th century. They had the same logic that "given the mechanization of agriculture, food practically produces itself; you just need to throw a seed in the ground and give it a couple of tractor rides, and the earth will do the rest. Therefore, we need a tax on such activity, because we have enough resources to feed everyone".

In other words, it's literally a pure tax on automation. The results were mass deaths from starvation every single time.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#564

Post by Ekaros » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 9:56 AM UTC

worik wrote: post #218

What is the value proposition for Space-X? As far as I can tell it is in machines they cannot make work, servicing markets that do not exist for a service that will not matter for 20-years. That and a third rate AI company that no body wants, except to get rid of. This will probably go swimmingly at the start - but as time goes by and they raise more capital, Musk snorts more K and the glory fades, what then?

I don't really see anything that really matches their valuation. Yes there is some value in launching stuff in space. But it ain't not trillion.

And for starlink. There is some market. But if terrestrial options got their stuff together it is not that big either. Userbase is marginal. As they operate in areas that are not served by other options. And that market has real limit in size.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#565

Post by thg » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 9:59 AM UTC

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #417

Ballas wrote: post #388

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, they changed that rule as well. If the float is less than a set percentage, then it is weighted as a much higher percentage. Something like the minimum for weighting is 12% where SpaceX's float will be below 5% (those are the numbers I recall, but I don't have a lot of confidence in them.) That means they will be weighted as if the float was 12%.

> they changed that rule as well S&P hasn’t changed any rules yet.

NASDAQ has, however. SpaceX will be weighted at triple its public float.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#566

Post by Ekaros » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 10:00 AM UTC

ExoticPearTree wrote: post #435

I don’t understand why there is so much pushback and skepticisim about SpaceX. They actually have a functioning product, a market where they sell the product and virtually no competition at their pricepoint.

It is the price. SpaceX has reasonable parts. More questionable parts. And then crap parts. Reasonable parts must pay for crap and maybe questionable.

What is reasonable value for all it does? Clearly it is not what it is now projected at.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#567

Post by arkh » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 10:01 AM UTC

moffkalast wrote: post #460

saidnooneever wrote: post #456

Earlier quoted context omitted.

i read it as most likely people will lose their retirements if the companies goes bust. is that correct? in my country now they move to new pension model which will allow more aggressive investments with them. i am worried it will just get sent to these bros and i'll work until i die.

The reason they're doing that is because traditional European ponzi scheme pension systems don't work with shrinking populations, so actually we're working till we die in either case unless automation taxes pay for it.

Originally pensions were created so people who could not work would not be destitute.

The fact it became an all-inclusive all-year-round vacation reward is an anomaly which is getting corrected. Too bad for us we're the generations holding the bag.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#568

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 10:03 AM UTC

sdevonoes wrote: post #438

olalonde wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Comments like these make me feel like we're living in different worlds. I use LLMs multiple times a day and they've significantly improved my quality of life. They are also steadily becoming more useful over time (e.g. now solving math problems).

It’s because people value different things. I could not care less if LLMs make me push code faster to prod. Couldn’t care less if they improve my emails grammar. Couldn’t care less if they crack one unsolved math problem.

[deleted]

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#569

Post by baobabKoodaa » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 10:05 AM UTC

csomar wrote: post #487

deadbabe wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One thing I have come to realize, is that worrying about bubbles will keep you poor. If everyone is in the bubble and it pops, everyone is in the same boat, so you’re not really going to be poorer than your peers by comparison. If it’s not a bubble and you are wrong, you will fall way behind everyone else and just watch people get richer and richer doing the exact same thing you should have done. Also, just because s…

> If everyone is in the bubble and it pops, everyone is in the same boat, so you’re not really going to be poorer than your peers by comparison. > If it’s not a bubble and you are wrong, you will fall way behind everyone else and just watch people get richer and richer doing the exact same thing you should have done. I don't get? First scenario, you get richer vs. the average and in the second you gt poorer. So in to…

Normal people generally won't be able to beat professionals in the "market timing game". So when Joe Sixpack decides to sell off his index funds with intent to buy back in at a lower price, he's usually making a mistake. Staying invested in the market is a better choice for most investors because being in cash is about -2%/year EV whereas being in stocks is about +6%/year EV.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#570

Post by Arn_Thor » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 10:05 AM UTC

hliyan wrote: post #471

pryce wrote: post #355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This should be a 5 alarm fire. It reminds me of nothing more than organized crime rackets that targeted control of union retirement funds

I've been told the following (obviously negative) narrative. Can someone verify/refute some of these? I've put (?) next to questionable claims. 1. Twitter is purchased with debt 2. Debt is transferred to xAI via acquisition of X/Twitter 3. Debt is further transferred to SpaceX via acquisition of xAI 4. SpaceX IPO offered at extreme valuation 5. Index fund inclusion rules waived for SpaceX IPO: profitability requireme…

> 7. Index fund managers are not incentivized to exclude a SpaceX from their indexes. (?)

Correction: index funds don't have a choice. They must follow the index, and so must buy the stock.

side effect: they'll have to sell other stocks, pushing their prices and weighting in market cap weighted indexes down.

> Passive investors are unable to rapidly respond to these types of changes because liquidating portfolios will incur capital gains taxes. (?)

For some active investors, yes. For passive investors (say you through your employer's pension fund), the tax isn't the problem. It's that the market has such a short time to adjust the price of these companies before indexes are forced to include them--and so might buy them at wildly inflated prices. Then, not too long after, the early investors can sell at still-high prices as soon as their lockup periods end. It's a massive transfer of wealth from pension funds and index investors to the early investors in those companies.