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Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

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Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#481

Post by iLoveOncall »

saidnooneever wrote: post #456
pryce wrote: post #355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This should be a 5 alarm fire. It reminds me of nothing more than organized crime rackets that targeted control of union retirement funds

i read it as most likely people will lose their retirements if the companies goes bust. is that correct? in my country now they move to new pension model which will allow more aggressive investments with them. i am worried it will just get sent to these bros and i'll work until i die.

No, it's wrong.

Amazon is worth $2.81T right now and only represents 4.03% of the S&P500.

So a $1T share would represent less than 2% of the S&P500. This is significant for a single company, and 6% for 3 shit-tier companies (SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic) is even more significant, but we're far from "losing retirement if they go bust"-levels.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#482

Post by csomar »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #141
tomrod wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because it is deliberately extracting cash from Mom and Pop into the robber baron's wallets?

Okay? Why does that mean a devastating pop?

Once the liquidity is transferred, that's it? There is nothing there (datacenter in space, that dude is really smoking some serious stuff), so the money will be spent/transferred and then there is no revenue/new sources of money.

It's the same scenario of a ponzi scheme. Everything looks fresh and fine until everyone realizes there is nothing in there.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#483

Post by gman83 »

augstein wrote: post #105

For SpaceX (and possible the others): Yes it can, since they changed the rules to force over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. From https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065 : "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k a…

This seems like straight up fraud? Presumably all to bail out early investors?

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#484

Post by ashdksnndck »

hliyan wrote: post #471
pryce wrote: post #355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This should be a 5 alarm fire. It reminds me of nothing more than organized crime rackets that targeted control of union retirement funds

I've been told the following (obviously negative) narrative. Can someone verify/refute some of these? I've put (?) next to questionable claims. 1. Twitter is purchased with debt 2. Debt is transferred to xAI via acquisition of X/Twitter 3. Debt is further transferred to SpaceX via acquisition of xAI 4. SpaceX IPO offered at extreme valuation 5. Index fund inclusion rules waived for SpaceX IPO: profitability requireme…

The twitter debt is a negligible portion of the money at stake here. It’s a footnote compared to the trillions of dollars in wealth that are moving around. We are only talking about it because the internet commentariat has special interest in twitter. Not worth wasting time thinking about it if you are deciding how to allocate your portfolio.

Nevertheless it is part of a pattern of weird deals in Elon’s companies. He’ll do anything to move the goalposts and turn his failures into successes. There is no norm he won’t violate, no boundary he won’t cross.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#485

Post by ivankelly »

coliveira wrote: post #221
ravenstine wrote: post #90

All these things are apparently valued at trillions of dollars these days. Where's the trillions, or hundreds of billions worth in improved quality of life? What has gotten better other than the ability to produce more crap?

The stock market is just a game that rich people use to manipulate money. It is not a reflection of the real world. Consider for example Google, one of the companies with highest valuation in the market. If Google stops working now, the only problem we'll have is getting a few minutes back of our time. Nobody will have big issues in life because one cannot find a web page, view more ads, and watch silly videos! Howev…

If everyone using Gmail permanently lost access to their gmail there’d be massive problems

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#486

Post by [deleted] »

riffraff wrote: post #321
roflulz wrote: post #289

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The S&P Shariah index fund is required to exclude SpaceX and already exists https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-500-shar...

Why? Was space exploration incompatible with Sharia? Is it the pornography bit of xAI?

[deleted]

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#487

Post by csomar »

deadbabe wrote: post #184
Xunjin wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If this is a bubble... The pop stage will be devastating...

One thing I have come to realize, is that worrying about bubbles will keep you poor. If everyone is in the bubble and it pops, everyone is in the same boat, so you’re not really going to be poorer than your peers by comparison. If it’s not a bubble and you are wrong, you will fall way behind everyone else and just watch people get richer and richer doing the exact same thing you should have done. Also, just because s…

> If everyone is in the bubble and it pops, everyone is in the same boat, so you’re not really going to be poorer than your peers by comparison.

> If it’s not a bubble and you are wrong, you will fall way behind everyone else and just watch people get richer and richer doing the exact same thing you should have done.

I don't get? First scenario, you get richer vs. the average and in the second you gt poorer. So in total you average out? I don't see how not participating makes you poorer in average.

> Sometimes bubbles expand and then just get diffused.

That's not what a bubble is. A financial bubble is defined by the "burst" at the end.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#488

Post by XorNot »

oblio wrote: post #427
guywithahat wrote: post #389

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why? An index fund represents the market (usually top 100 or 500 companies), and SpaceX will certainly be in the top few companies. I would argue it's a lot riskier to buy it after the IPO price (if you're buying it secondary it would be easier to spike prices by accident), plus then it's not representative of the actual market until you've purchased the stock. Unless I'm misunderstanding this, buying at the sale pri…

SpaceX financials are a mess outside of the actual SpaceX part. xAI is losing money hand over fist, other random bits in there are doing the same. The valuation makes no sense. It's basically a money transfer from the average person to the poor richest person on the planet. The true Great Filter is mental illness, apparently.

Moreover their filings on the matter basically correctly weight their space launch business and then go "and xAI will obviously be worth a bajilion dollars more".

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#489

Post by jjav »

augstein wrote: post #105

For SpaceX (and possible the others): Yes it can, since they changed the rules to force over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. From https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065 : "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k a…

This is going to be very... "interesting". SpaceX will IPO with minimal float, while at the same time forcing every index fund to buy a fixed percentage. A long squeeze, so to speak.

I can't picture any scenario where this ends well.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#490

Post by 0xDEAFBEAD »

tdeck wrote: post #349
augstein wrote: post #105

For SpaceX (and possible the others): Yes it can, since they changed the rules to force over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. From https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065 : "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k a…

What can those of us who are passive investors do to protect ourselves?

There are many large cap ETFs out there:

https://etfdb.com/etfs/size/large-cap/

You could switch to one that focuses on stocks which pay dividends, for example. That should provide a bit of protection against an AI market crash:

https://etfdb.com/etf/VIG/#etf-ticker-profile

So-called "smart beta" ETFs are also interesting. https://etfdb.com/themes/smart-beta-etfs/

Here are some factors I would expect to rule out the frothiest stocks:

"Quality Factor ETFs are made up of securities deemed to exhibit strong fundamental characteristics. These ETFs screen for stocks that have healthy balance sheets, encouraging growth prospects, and consistent improvements in their earnings."

https://etfdb.com/themes/quality-factor-etfs/

"Value-centric ETFs invest in securities deemed to possess value characteristics, including those operating in stable industries with relatively low price-to-earnings ratios."

https://etfdb.com/etfs/style/value/

"Low Volatility ETFs invest in securities with low volatility characteristics. These funds tend to have relatively stable share prices, and higher than average yields."

https://etfdb.com/etfs/investment-style/low-volatility/

Be sure to check the expense ratios on smart beta ETFs. Generally, the more sophisticated the stock screening, the more they will charge you in management fees.

As long as you're thinking about your portfolio, you may wish to consider international diversification in case the US economy implodes somehow: https://etfdb.com/themes/international-equity-etfs/

Personally, I keep my portfolio extremely conservative. My bet is that if the singularity arrives, we will all either die, or get UBI. I don't particularly care about having more moons than the other guy: https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/you-have-only-x-years-to-es...

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