Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

economist.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

81–90 of 1001 posts

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#81

Post by testrun »

ElProlactin wrote: post #74
d_burfoot wrote: post #71

> Firms in the broad Russell 3000 share index have a total market value of $79trn I sometimes try to get people to worry about the catastrophic state of American public finances by pointing out that the net national debt, including unfunded liabilities, is estimated to be $175T [0]. The government could appropriate all the equity from the top 3000 largest companies, and also the entire real estate market, and it stil…

The thing is that at these levels of debt, repayment is never the goal.

Well, will be interesting to see how this play out. The US federal debt repayments is already above $1trillion a year.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#82

Post by JumpCrisscross »

carlosjobim wrote: post #80
d_burfoot wrote: post #71

> Firms in the broad Russell 3000 share index have a total market value of $79trn I sometimes try to get people to worry about the catastrophic state of American public finances by pointing out that the net national debt, including unfunded liabilities, is estimated to be $175T [0]. The government could appropriate all the equity from the top 3000 largest companies, and also the entire real estate market, and it stil…

Government debt isn't like personal debt or business debt. The treasury can choose to not honur it, and there's nothing anybody can do about it. Of course they're not going to find a market to sell more debt to after that, but wouldn't you say they already have enough? No sympathy for people and institutions who make deals with the devil and expect the government to forever enslave taxpayers to honour those deals and…

> Of course they're not going to find a market to sell more debt to after that

Argentina is doing fine. The real constraint would be that defaulting on the debt would cause a credit crisis and bank collapses.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#83

Post by Eufrat »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #43
bunderbunder wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can’t imagine them actually being bullish about exponential growth, when both seem instead to be stagnating. I’m more inclined to believe they’re just maintaining a level of hype in public because that’s what you do.

> when both seem instead to be stagnating What's the evidence for Anthropic stagnating?

The same evidence that they are growing. Tea leaves.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#84

Post by 827a »

d_burfoot wrote: post #71

> Firms in the broad Russell 3000 share index have a total market value of $79trn I sometimes try to get people to worry about the catastrophic state of American public finances by pointing out that the net national debt, including unfunded liabilities, is estimated to be $175T [0]. The government could appropriate all the equity from the top 3000 largest companies, and also the entire real estate market, and it stil…

The $175T number is unfair because it treats Social Security and Medicare/aid as a liability instead of the service that they are. You might as well say the US is in infinite debt, because we'll always be paying something for our military every year, so infinity years * any dollars = infinite debt.

Also: All of those numbers you use to scare people are way, way off.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#85

Post by hootz »

tristanj wrote: post #15
hootz wrote: post #4

So, The Economist's paywall is unbypassable?

Download the Bypass Paywalls Clean browser extension. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bypass_Paywalls_Clean The project has been going on for years, it moved to gitflic after being banned from github and gitlab.

Amazing! Thank you!

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#86

Post by testrun »

joegibbs wrote: post #75

Anthropic at $1t for an IPO vs Google at $23b in 2004 sounds insane but Google's revenue at the time was $2.7b while Anthropic's already at $47b, so a valuation at about 20x vs 10x revenue. Anthropic also has very high revenue growth (50x since 2024), it doesn't seems quite as insane as it could be.

That is revenue. What is the net profit?

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#87

Post by [deleted] »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #82
carlosjobim wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Government debt isn't like personal debt or business debt. The treasury can choose to not honur it, and there's nothing anybody can do about it. Of course they're not going to find a market to sell more debt to after that, but wouldn't you say they already have enough? No sympathy for people and institutions who make deals with the devil and expect the government to forever enslave taxpayers to honour those deals and…

> Of course they're not going to find a market to sell more debt to after that Argentina is doing fine. The real constraint would be that defaulting on the debt would cause a credit crisis and bank collapses.

[deleted]

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#88

Post by JumpCrisscross »

827a wrote: post #84
d_burfoot wrote: post #71

> Firms in the broad Russell 3000 share index have a total market value of $79trn I sometimes try to get people to worry about the catastrophic state of American public finances by pointing out that the net national debt, including unfunded liabilities, is estimated to be $175T [0]. The government could appropriate all the equity from the top 3000 largest companies, and also the entire real estate market, and it stil…

The $175T number is unfair because it treats Social Security and Medicare/aid as a liability instead of the service that they are. You might as well say the US is in infinite debt, because we'll always be paying something for our military every year, so infinity years * any dollars = infinite debt. Also: All of those numbers you use to scare people are way, way off.

> it treats Social Security and Medicare/aid as a liability instead of the service that they are

It's a liability because the U.S. has promised to pay it. We haven't committed to a level of military spending backed by our full faith and credit.

EDIT: Never mind! Apparently we can just cut social security payments.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#89

Post by JumpCrisscross »

d_burfoot wrote: post #71

> Firms in the broad Russell 3000 share index have a total market value of $79trn I sometimes try to get people to worry about the catastrophic state of American public finances by pointing out that the net national debt, including unfunded liabilities, is estimated to be $175T [0]. The government could appropriate all the equity from the top 3000 largest companies, and also the entire real estate market, and it stil…

...what does this have to do with these IPOs?
Post reply on HN