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Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

economist.com

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Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#381

Post by thephyber »

rlt wrote: post #324
cortesoft wrote: post #315

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The indexes are weighted based on the float (at least most of them)... so a small float means they will buy a much smaller number of shares.

I think that's the point the parent comment was making.

No, the parent was saying the other rule change is arbitrary.

The tiny float and just a few days before the index funds buy means they have to buy without any more revenue / earnings info than was already published pre-IPO. 90 days is a quarter, so there WILL be more price discovery before a 0 day index fund seasoning period.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#382

Post by quijoteuniv »

augstein wrote: post #105

For SpaceX (and possible the others): Yes it can, since they changed the rules to force over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. From https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065 : "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k a…

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Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#383

Post by thephyber »

robotresearcher wrote: post #326
kevin_thibedeau wrote: post #264

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AI in space, for all that sweet sweet latency.

Space is not far away at all.

Do data centers in space still depreciate GPUs over 6 years if the datacenter falls to Earth in 3?

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#384

Post by FriedPickles »

augstein wrote: post #105

For SpaceX (and possible the others): Yes it can, since they changed the rules to force over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. From https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065 : "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k a…

The money still comes from somewhere. In this case, those index funds will be forced to trim holdings of other companies. So it's cannibalizing other parts of the stock market.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#385

Post by dranudin »

BobbyJo wrote: post #277
calvinmorrison wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

except the last bubble pop hit fast and hard with post covid inflation.

It worked. The only people upset about it are young people who don't vote. If young people don't want a continual wealth transfer from them to the old, they need to start voting. That's been the case since 2008, and here we are a generation later.

Old people will be the majority for the foreseeable future, though. To be honest, the only strategy that I currently see for young people is waiting and growing old, unfortunately..

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#386

Post by thephyber »

jauntywundrkind wrote: post #150
jmyeet wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You forgot the part where NASDAQ already enacted a rule change that normally prohibits small floats from index inclusion (and thus forced purchase by index funds), which was normally 10% [1]. SpaceX is only floating ~4.3% of their stock and they're triple-weighting it . [1]: https://www.forbes.com/sites/garthfriesen/2026/04/25/spacex-...

Also worth asking what SpaceXLAI's plan is to make money. $22.7T of their $28.5T Total Addressable Market is... Drumroll... Enterprise AI! That's the plan, that's what we are investing in: spacex and Tesla and Twitter are all side shows, to sell AI. That's what everyone's absurdly overpriced forced passive investment is going to. https://bsky.app/profile/segyges.bsky.social/post/3mnan7hr2j... There is nowhere near en…

Tesla’s market cap is entirely about Optimus vaporware hopium.

Similarly Space-X’s IPO valuation is about “data centers in space” vaporware hopium and “timeshare all the GPU time that Grok isn’t using”.

There’s a trend with Musk’s companies.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#387

Post by dh2022 »

s1artibartfast wrote: post #310
threetonesun wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’d love it if for once someone on here saying LLMs are some life changing apparatus would give a single example.

Immediate medical and childcare advice from LLM are pretty life changing. Interpreting reports, avoiding drug interactions, or knowing when to seek medical care. And before people object- I can literally use the same LLM my doctor does to check these things, without waiting 2 weeks for an appointment. I helped my parents work through bacterial culture results when my dad was hospitalized with sepsis, and had them ask…

How do you know it is not hallucinating those quirky stories :)?

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#388

Post by Ballas »

cortesoft wrote: post #315
gruez wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. 90 days or 5 days, it doesn't really matter because the float will be tiny due to the 6 month lockup. What kind of price discovery are we expecting that would happen in the other 85 days?

The indexes are weighted based on the float (at least most of them)... so a small float means they will buy a much smaller number of shares.

Well, they changed that rule as well. If the float is less than a set percentage, then it is weighted as a much higher percentage. Something like the minimum for weighting is 12% where SpaceX's float will be below 5% (those are the numbers I recall, but I don't have a lot of confidence in them.) That means they will be weighted as if the float was 12%.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#389

Post by guywithahat »

pryce wrote: post #355
augstein wrote: post #105

For SpaceX (and possible the others): Yes it can, since they changed the rules to force over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. From https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065 : "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k a…

This should be a 5 alarm fire. It reminds me of nothing more than organized crime rackets that targeted control of union retirement funds

Why? An index fund represents the market (usually top 100 or 500 companies), and SpaceX will certainly be in the top few companies. I would argue it's a lot riskier to buy it after the IPO price (if you're buying it secondary it would be easier to spike prices by accident), plus then it's not representative of the actual market until you've purchased the stock.

Unless I'm misunderstanding this, buying at the sale price is the least risky way of purchasing the stock, which is what index funds should do. They should pursue the least risky way of indexing the market

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#390

Post by qaq »

giancarlostoro wrote: post #124
testrun wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is revenue. What is the net profit?

They reported 559 million in Q2 of this year. OpenAI on the other hand, is nowhere near this.

because of the mutual sweetheart deal with SpaceX

SpaceX gave em discount for the pre IPO quarter so they can show profit

Anthropic signed a deal to lease compute that is the bulk of SpaceX revenue

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