Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI? • Hacker News Board

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#301

Post by JumpCrisscross » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 4:07 AM UTC

coliveira wrote: post #233

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 30% increase in one year 30% above the average. Households bought $1.6 trillion in Q3 of 2025, for example. (Foreigners bought a further $650 and $700 billion in Q3 and Q4, respectively.) American capital markets are ridiculously deep.

> capital markets are ridiculously deep. American market valuation is more than twice the entire US GDP. So ridiculous is a good description of what's going on.

> American market valuation is more than twice the entire US GDP

Stock versus flow.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#302

Post by bawolff » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 4:09 AM UTC

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #296

bawolff wrote: post #293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, isn't the definition of a bubble that it pops quickly? If it slowly loses value over time, its not really a bubble.

> isn't the definition of a bubble that it pops quickly? There is no consistent definition of a bubble. We have no fundamental reason current valuations have to collapse suddenly.

Is there any definition of bubble that doesn't involve popping? That's literally the metaphor.

> We have no fundamental reason current valuations have to collapse suddenly.

I would agree, but i think that is just saying that the current situation is potentially not a bubble. Which may be true. We will only find out after the fact.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#303

Post by AlexCoventry » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 4:10 AM UTC

paulpauper wrote: post #13

rconti wrote: post #2

So they're not just racing to gain dominance in AI, they're also racing to IPO before the music stops? IPOing and getting a bunch of cash, even if your stock subsequently suffers in the crash, is a lot better than being unable to get that capital infusion before the house of cards collapses.

People keep predicting "house of cards" and keep being wrong. AI bubble was supposed to burst as far back as 2023. When was the last time since 2009 there was a $500+ billion tech valuation that lost 90% or more? After a certain point , 100% market penetration is achieved and these products become mainstream and profitability follows. See Uber and Tesla for examples.

The headwinds are way worse now, though. Oil is choked, war is brewing, and corruption is at an all-time high.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#304

Post by s1artibartfast » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 4:10 AM UTC

ravenstine wrote: post #90

All these things are apparently valued at trillions of dollars these days. Where's the trillions, or hundreds of billions worth in improved quality of life? What has gotten better other than the ability to produce more crap?

Quality of life doesnt matter. What matters is the choices people make to spend their money on. This is what drives profits.

If you are upset about people spending their extra productivity and labor hours on poision and mental laxitives, i would mostly agree. This is a failure of culture to adapt to distratcions and shiny objects

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#305

Post by lenerdenator » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 4:13 AM UTC

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #297

wookmaster wrote: post #278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why else would they change the rule ?

> Why else would they change the rule ? These indices aim to replicate the market. They’re not trying to pick stocks. There is a serious argument for saying they fail to replicate the market if they structurally exclude trillions of dollars of it.

They also exclude many other things that are of economic value, because they could cause structural or social harm in the markets.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#306

Post by lokar » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 4:15 AM UTC

grassfedgeek wrote: post #130

augstein wrote: post #105

For SpaceX (and possible the others): Yes it can, since they changed the rules to force over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. From https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065 : "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k a…

This is such a scam. SpaceX used its massive IPO and listing fees (and the prestige of being the largest IPO ever) as leverage. Index providers and exchanges saw financial incentives: listing fees, trading volume, data sales, and long-term revenue from asset managers. Reuters reported that SpaceX advisers contacted major index providers (including Nasdaq) to discuss early index entry, and that SpaceX was leaning towa…

And CRSP (VTI)

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#307

Post by wyager » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 4:16 AM UTC

ravenstine wrote: post #90

All these things are apparently valued at trillions of dollars these days. Where's the trillions, or hundreds of billions worth in improved quality of life? What has gotten better other than the ability to produce more crap?

> Where's the trillions, or hundreds of billions worth in improved quality of life?

Starlink and Claude are both awesome and huge QoL improvements for me!

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#308

Post by riffraff » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 4:17 AM UTC

stinkbeetle wrote: post #300

taurath wrote: post #129

[flagged]

You're claiming without evidence that the bureaucracy and regulators are corrupt to the core? No way I refuse to hear another bad word about the government, they are above reproach sir.

To be fair, these are not regulators, just private companies making up rules, so technically this is not corruption just something that looks like it but it's just business™

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#309

Post by HWR_14 » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 4:17 AM UTC

stinkbeetle wrote: post #300

taurath wrote: post #129

[flagged]

You're claiming without evidence that the bureaucracy and regulators are corrupt to the core? No way I refuse to hear another bad word about the government, they are above reproach sir.

These are all private companies's decisions.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#310

Post by s1artibartfast » Tue, Jun 02, 2026, 4:19 AM UTC

threetonesun wrote: post #191

olalonde wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Comments like these make me feel like we're living in different worlds. I use LLMs multiple times a day and they've significantly improved my quality of life. They are also steadily becoming more useful over time (e.g. now solving math problems).

I’d love it if for once someone on here saying LLMs are some life changing apparatus would give a single example.

Immediate medical and childcare advice from LLM are pretty life changing.

Interpreting reports, avoiding drug interactions, or knowing when to seek medical care. And before people object- I can literally use the same LLM my doctor does to check these things, without waiting 2 weeks for an appointment.

I helped my parents work through bacterial culture results when my dad was hospitalized with sepsis, and had them ask their doctor for specific follow up tests.

I rebuilt my gas furnace and fixed my dishwasher with AI as an assistant.

Those aren't the fun parts tho. My favorite is touring art museums ancient historical sites with an LLM guide. It can give me a short academic essay about every artist, painting, or artifact. It can pull out details quirky stories about the history that I specifically would find interesting.

I cant recommend this enough. Its like visiting with a 10 PhD docents in art history.