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Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

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Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#131

All these things are apparently valued at trillions of dollars these days. Where's the trillions, or hundreds of billions worth in improved quality of life? What has gotten better other than the ability to produce more crap?

Comments like these make me feel like we're living in different worlds. I use LLMs multiple times a day and they've significantly improved my quality of life. They are also steadily becoming more useful over time (e.g. now solving math problems).

I suppose many do live in different worlds.

I haven't found anything out of LLM's that has improved my life. It was a fun little toy but could never find a use case. But clearly, your mileage varies greatly from mine. That's cool.

I just personally don't the use in more when what I think many need is less. But that comes from essentially this point of view - “Better than a thousand hollow words is one word that brings peace.” ― Buddha

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#132

For SpaceX (and possible the others): Yes it can, since they changed the rules to force over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. From https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065 : "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k a…

You forgot the part where NASDAQ already enacted a rule change that normally prohibits small floats from index inclusion (and thus forced purchase by index funds), which was normally 10% [1]. SpaceX is only floating ~4.3% of their stock and they're triple-weighting it.

[1]: https://www.forbes.com/sites/garthfriesen/2026/04/25/spacex-...

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#133

All these things are apparently valued at trillions of dollars these days. Where's the trillions, or hundreds of billions worth in improved quality of life? What has gotten better other than the ability to produce more crap?

In terms of SpaceX (the space portion of it) they've produced the cheapest way to get any payload into space. If you pay anybody else, you will overpay drastically depending on who you want to take your payload into space. In terms of AI, we've seen even here on HN everything from mathematical problems that remaind unsolved, being solved, mathematical proofs being used to disprove theories, heck we even learned more…

You'll overpay -- but not by trillions.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#134
post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If this is a bubble... The pop stage will be devastating...

[flagged]

There is literally nothing creative about circumventing existing regulations. By definition of there already being rules in place to prevent them, the pump methods being used are already a known quantity. That those safeguards are being bypassed is just boring old corruption.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#135

> Firms in the broad Russell 3000 share index have a total market value of $79trn I sometimes try to get people to worry about the catastrophic state of American public finances by pointing out that the net national debt, including unfunded liabilities, is estimated to be $175T [0]. The government could appropriate all the equity from the top 3000 largest companies, and also the entire real estate market, and it stil…

Government debt isn't like personal debt or business debt. The treasury can choose to not honur it, and there's nothing anybody can do about it. Of course they're not going to find a market to sell more debt to after that, but wouldn't you say they already have enough? No sympathy for people and institutions who make deals with the devil and expect the government to forever enslave taxpayers to honour those deals and…

The way I understand my money market settlement account at vanguard, is that it's all, or nearly all, treasuries. Treasury not honoring government debt would be the worst bank failure in the history of the world.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think this is the story of tech in general. In my life, I've seen 3 really big steps down for the middle class: 2001, 2008 and then covid. Basic necessities are expensive today - people point to high GDP but what I see is high prices and poverty. And Tech, we've built a dystopian surveillance state.

> Basic necessities are expensive There is going to be a well-deserved shitshow when these IPO proceeds start hitting real estate markets.

A shitshow for whom? I see it as extremely unlikely for the United States of America to not allow individuals to purchase things for whatever money they can pull together.

The only answer is to make it unacceptable socially, more costly economically (taxes, etc), or the third option which involves pitchforks (perhaps that also falls under "unacceptable socially") that I hope we can avoid at all costs. (is this the show you mention?)

Feels like folks used to understand the balance a bit better - but I think I made that up. This next governance cycle is going to be a trust-busting, wealth-confiscating one I think.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#137
post #2

So they're not just racing to gain dominance in AI, they're also racing to IPO before the music stops? IPOing and getting a bunch of cash, even if your stock subsequently suffers in the crash, is a lot better than being unable to get that capital infusion before the house of cards collapses.

I don't think OpenAI or Anthropic are predicting that the AI market is going to collapse. In fact, I think both are bullish that the public still isn't pricing in exponential growth. I think what is happening is that OpenAI is racing to IPO before Anthropic because their growth isn't as impressive. If you are the weaker company, you should IPO first to lock up the cash.

[flagged]

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#138
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How can you use a word like “never” when this debt is literally unprecedented in the history of the world

It can never be repaid. Presumably the people in charge of generating it are not oblivious to this fact. "If you owe the bank $100, that's your problem. If you owe the bank $100 million, that's the bank's problem."

It goes beyond that. $175 trillion includes all future entitlement spending not debt, it’s crazy to call all future entitlement spending for every living person debt. By that metric there’s essentially no such thing as a solvent government anywhere in the world and there never has been in modern history.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#139

All these things are apparently valued at trillions of dollars these days. Where's the trillions, or hundreds of billions worth in improved quality of life? What has gotten better other than the ability to produce more crap?

Comments like these make me feel like we're living in different worlds. I use LLMs multiple times a day and they've significantly improved my quality of life. They are also steadily becoming more useful over time (e.g. now solving math problems).

[deleted]

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#140

> Firms in the broad Russell 3000 share index have a total market value of $79trn I sometimes try to get people to worry about the catastrophic state of American public finances by pointing out that the net national debt, including unfunded liabilities, is estimated to be $175T [0]. The government could appropriate all the equity from the top 3000 largest companies, and also the entire real estate market, and it stil…

Government debt isn't like personal debt or business debt. The treasury can choose to not honur it, and there's nothing anybody can do about it. Of course they're not going to find a market to sell more debt to after that, but wouldn't you say they already have enough? No sympathy for people and institutions who make deals with the devil and expect the government to forever enslave taxpayers to honour those deals and…

We also don’t have anywhere near $175 trillion in debt. That’s a crazy made up number.
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