I am actually curious in knowing an answer to this: Does anybody think this is a good thing? A benefit to the world?
Not if anyone is cheating or scheming or being a rules lawyer, but is it good?
Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?
271–280 of 1001 posts
Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?
#272Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Do you think it’s more or less likely that they will make the same change as the other benchmarks? S&P has historically been more conservative. My personal guess is they won't adopt all of the proposals.
But you think they’ll adopt some of these proposals that are in the benefit of these companies IPOing at the expense of large funds?
If the S&P adopt those rules would there be any index fund that is S&P without the new rules?
Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?
#273Earlier quoted context omitted.
Isn't AI routinely making significant mistakes in analyzing medical imaging?
My understanding is that it’s better than doctors themselves. But it’s probably the same as with autonomous driving: the bar isn’t just “be as good as humans”, it’s “be flawless”.
With these kinds of things, I want to see comparisons to trained, alert humans. Cut out all the distracted, stressed, tired, incompetent, intoxicated cases from the baseline. That includes rushed doctors at the end of a long shift.
A self driving car doing better than a drunk on the freeway doesn't reassure me that it'll do better than sober me in a snowstorm.
Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?
#274Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Do you think it’s more or less likely that they will make the same change as the other benchmarks? S&P has historically been more conservative. My personal guess is they won't adopt all of the proposals.
But you think they’ll adopt some of these proposals that are in the benefit of these companies IPOing at the expense of large funds?
> they’ll adopt some of these proposals that are in the benefit of these companies IPOing at the expense of large funds?
Yes. And I see the argument for it. It’s hard to claim you represent the market if trillions of dollars are outside it for no reason other than newness or capital-structure weirdness. (I agree with excluding unprofitable companies.)
Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?
#275Earlier quoted context omitted.
> they've produced the cheapest way Were we struggling to do this before? Was the overall percentage reduction in costs? Was some other achievement held back because we couldn't accomplish this? What is now enabled? > to get any payload into space. A limited set of payloads into space. No vehicle can get "any payload" to space at a fixed price. > The benefits are easy to miss, You've listed a bunch of reasons to publ…
> Were we struggling to do this before? We literally couldn't. > Was the overall percentage reduction in costs? Starship will bill NASA 1/20th what SLS does. > What is now enabled? LEO. Artemis. Out of all of these companies, being confused about SpaceX is super weird.
If SpaceX was only Starlink or only Starlink and rockets it would be an horrible circumvention of the rules.
But now he's also trying to get the indexes to pay for the giant cash fire called X.ai and the far right huddle Twitter too.
I have zero interest in owning anything of either of those companies.
Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?
#276All these things are apparently valued at trillions of dollars these days. Where's the trillions, or hundreds of billions worth in improved quality of life? What has gotten better other than the ability to produce more crap?
Comments like these make me feel like we're living in different worlds. I use LLMs multiple times a day and they've significantly improved my quality of life. They are also steadily becoming more useful over time (e.g. now solving math problems).
I use LLMs daily, both as chat applications and "vibe coding".
I wouldn't say it "significantly improved my life" however. Everything AI has done for me right now is a "Nice to have" but it doesn't fulfill my needs.
Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?
#277Earlier quoted context omitted.
We don't let bubbles pop anymore. We print money and borrow from the future so that no one loses money on their homes and retirement accounts. The GFC changed the rules.
except the last bubble pop hit fast and hard with post covid inflation.
It worked. The only people upset about it are young people who don't vote. If young people don't want a continual wealth transfer from them to the old, they need to start voting. That's been the case since 2008, and here we are a generation later.
Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?
#278Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?
#279So they're not just racing to gain dominance in AI, they're also racing to IPO before the music stops? IPOing and getting a bunch of cash, even if your stock subsequently suffers in the crash, is a lot better than being unable to get that capital infusion before the house of cards collapses.
I'm not sure how long we can continue being negative about these AI companies. This idea that there will be a crash has often burned the bears in a way that has become an Internet meme.
In reality, corporations as a whole are seeing record profits continuing through 2026. Whether or not the average person is doing well is pretty irrelevant to the stock market: if companies are increasingly profitable, stocks go up.
Everything I hear about Anthropic points to a company that is actually closer to profitability and possibly already profitable, unlike many of its other peers.
We don't really look at YouTube as a failure and that product was unprofitable for many years. Nobody thinks the Uber bubble is going to burst even though it has never made back its investment money.
I think OpenAI is undisciplined and poorly run hence the insane burning of cash. Sam Altman is a terrible CEO and a conman. Anthropic is run by legit people.
Companies like Google, Microsoft, and Meta face essentially no negative consequence for burning cash. They have no urgent need to be efficient about their AI investments, even if they could be.
SpaceX is of course not profitable and has a lot of baggage but they still have a major asset, which is that Starlink prints utility company levels of money and is expanding both customer base and profit margins rapidly. Are they overvalued? Yeah, of course.
Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?
#280For SpaceX (and possible the others): Yes it can, since they changed the rules to force over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. From https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065 : "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k a…
So the obvious thing to do, for someone that's got ~$3mm to play with, is to setup an ETF that is SP500 but with the old rules. If you can convince $40mm of other people's money to go into your not-specifically-Musk-less-but-just-happens-to-be ETF, they'd come out ahead.
Only $3mm needed?