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Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

economist.com

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Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#241

Post by randbyte »

gruez wrote: post #173
augstein wrote: post #105

For SpaceX (and possible the others): Yes it can, since they changed the rules to force over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. From https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065 : "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k a…

>and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. 90 days or 5 days, it doesn't really matter because the float will be tiny due to the 6 month lockup. What kind of price discovery are we expecting that would happen in the other 85 days?

> it doesn't really matter because the float will be tiny due to the 6 month lockup.

Not really: https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/spacex-allow-early-...

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#242

Post by loeg »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #195
themafia wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you actually optimistic?

> Are you actually optimistic? Not particularly. When I posted the request for comment to HN it got crickets [1]. Not enough people care about this. And the "safe" option has kind of shifted with the other index providers having moved first. That said, there were a lot of proposals and I'm not expecting all of them to be adopted. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48054324

There's no obviously correct answer here.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#243

Post by lovich »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #219
lovich wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you think it’s more or less likely that they will make the same change as the other benchmarks?

> Do you think it’s more or less likely that they will make the same change as the other benchmarks? S&P has historically been more conservative. My personal guess is they won't adopt all of the proposals.

But you think they’ll adopt some of these proposals that are in the benefit of these companies IPOing at the expense of large funds?

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#244

Post by andsoitis »

bobsomers wrote: post #220
newshackr wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can't sell these ETFs without incurring capital gains, potentially large. So it isn't really a choice.

If it's actually your 401k, sure you can. Just today I rebalanced my retirement funds away from large cap stocks to avoid this steaming turd that Elon is dumping on the public.

> Just today I rebalanced my retirement funds away from large cap stocks

Away from large cap stocks to what?

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#245

Post by raincole »

themafia wrote: post #189
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> All three benchmarks are now structured to buy SpaceX at IPO pricing S&P has not finalized a rule change yet.

Are you actually optimistic?

A: posted a fact

B: but what about your emotions

Very glad to see HN stereotype being upended :)

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#246

Post by stingraycharles »

rockskon wrote: post #222
giancarlostoro wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In terms of SpaceX (the space portion of it) they've produced the cheapest way to get any payload into space. If you pay anybody else, you will overpay drastically depending on who you want to take your payload into space. In terms of AI, we've seen even here on HN everything from mathematical problems that remaind unsolved, being solved, mathematical proofs being used to disprove theories, heck we even learned more…

Isn't AI routinely making significant mistakes in analyzing medical imaging?

My understanding is that it’s better than doctors themselves. But it’s probably the same as with autonomous driving: the bar isn’t just “be as good as humans”, it’s “be flawless”.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#247

Post by Cider9986 »

threetonesun wrote: post #191
olalonde wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Comments like these make me feel like we're living in different worlds. I use LLMs multiple times a day and they've significantly improved my quality of life. They are also steadily becoming more useful over time (e.g. now solving math problems).

I’d love it if for once someone on here saying LLMs are some life changing apparatus would give a single example.

Some guy vibe coded a tasks app client that I really like. Not life changing but I couldn't find one that suited my needs since de-iPhoning before this one.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#248

Post by freakynit »

01100011 wrote: post #146
Xunjin wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If this is a bubble... The pop stage will be devastating...

We don't let bubbles pop anymore. We print money and borrow from the future so that no one loses money on their homes and retirement accounts. The GFC changed the rules.

It looks less like capitalism and more like socialism for the rich, marketed as free markets.

Print money. Push most of it into cheap credit for giant corporations and asset owners. Let a little trickle into the real economy so ordinary people feel temporary relief. Then let inflation quietly do the dirty work.

The public pays through higher prices, weaker savings, and future debt.

The powerful collect the upside.

That is the game: privatize the profits, socialize the losses, and call it capitalism.

And all of this is legal under the disguise of "protecting the economy for regular folks", and they can keep doing it repeatedly.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#249

Post by [deleted] »

joegibbs wrote: post #75

Anthropic at $1t for an IPO vs Google at $23b in 2004 sounds insane but Google's revenue at the time was $2.7b while Anthropic's already at $47b, so a valuation at about 20x vs 10x revenue. Anthropic also has very high revenue growth (50x since 2024), it doesn't seems quite as insane as it could be.

[deleted]

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#250

Post by whateveracct »

bdangubic wrote: post #232
coliveira wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The stock market is just a game that rich people use to manipulate money. It is not a reflection of the real world. Consider for example Google, one of the companies with highest valuation in the market. If Google stops working now, the only problem we'll have is getting a few minutes back of our time. Nobody will have big issues in life because one cannot find a web page, view more ads, and watch silly videos! Howev…

you can replace “google” with every company that exists or has ever existed so no sure what the purpose of your comment is unless you are pitching abolishing the stock market. google is what they are because they make shitton of money and will continue to do so (more and more) into foreseeable future. that is stock market, always has been, always will be

if kroger shut its doors, my life would be much worse
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