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Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

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Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#371

Post by vGPU »

sjwhevvvvvsj wrote: post #168
FredPret wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I understand the sentiment. But the only reason you're mad at Nvidia is because they made something desirable (a GPU that does NN training) but didn't do it in the way you prefer (NVLink, Linux compatibility etc). It's not their fault AMD and others have been asleep at the wheel and handed them the whole market for free. Any company with a monopoly on the hot new thing would try to capitalize on it. When the other GP…

If AMDs version of “asleep at the wheel” is them eating Intels lunch for the last few years, I’d hate to see them awake. Intel is weak, and it’s much smarter to put resources into squeezing Intel while they are on the ropes than shift too much focus to ML.

The most amazing thing about their current offerings is that they haven’t screwed them up yet.

AMD has a looooong history of seemingly deliberately shooting themselves in the foot every time they get ahead.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#372

Post by eru »

latchkey wrote: post #370
eru wrote: post #364

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Have you noticed that data center stock, like EQIX, are at all time highs? Though the FTSE All-World index (or the S&P 500) is also at all time highs, so I would expect most stocks to be at all time highs, too. > Even still, power is limited. You can build DC's but if you can't power them... what are you going to do? This isn't just throw more money at the problem. I guess you can try to outbid other people? But th…

I knew you'd say that. SMCI though. It isn't just the macro. It is this AI stuff and has been going on quietly behind the scenes for the last 1.5-2 years now. Unless you're deep in the business, it just doesn't make the news headlines because it is all so intrinsically hush hush. > I didn't know the data-centre-building industry was so supply constrained at the moment. The whole supply chain is borked. Try to buy 800…

Thanks a lot!

I've seen some of that playing out in a business that was using GPUs for deep learning as applied to financial market making. They were throwing a lot of money at nvidia, too.

I wonder if it's enough money in total in AI to show up in countrywide GDP figures anytime soon. Because either AI's hunger for ever more computing power has to slow down, or world GDP has to increase markedly.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#373

Post by latchkey »

eru wrote: post #372
latchkey wrote: post #370

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I knew you'd say that. SMCI though. It isn't just the macro. It is this AI stuff and has been going on quietly behind the scenes for the last 1.5-2 years now. Unless you're deep in the business, it just doesn't make the news headlines because it is all so intrinsically hush hush. > I didn't know the data-centre-building industry was so supply constrained at the moment. The whole supply chain is borked. Try to buy 800…

Thanks a lot! I've seen some of that playing out in a business that was using GPUs for deep learning as applied to financial market making. They were throwing a lot of money at nvidia, too. I wonder if it's enough money in total in AI to show up in countrywide GDP figures anytime soon. Because either AI's hunger for ever more computing power has to slow down, or world GDP has to increase markedly.

I am pretty convinced that it won't ever slow down. The need for compute is infinite. I'm super biased on that opinion though, obviously.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#374

Post by eru »

latchkey wrote: post #373
eru wrote: post #372

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks a lot! I've seen some of that playing out in a business that was using GPUs for deep learning as applied to financial market making. They were throwing a lot of money at nvidia, too. I wonder if it's enough money in total in AI to show up in countrywide GDP figures anytime soon. Because either AI's hunger for ever more computing power has to slow down, or world GDP has to increase markedly.

I am pretty convinced that it won't ever slow down. The need for compute is infinite. I'm super biased on that opinion though, obviously.

Well, I'm talking about the rate of increasing slowing.

Given the speed of light as an upper limit, in the very long run we can at most have a cubic growth, not an exponential growth. Something will have to give eventually.

(OK, you also probably need to Bekenstein bound. Otherwise, you could try sticking more and more into information into the same amount of space. But there's a limit to that, before things turn into black holes.)

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#375

Post by dakial1 »

ralph84 wrote: post #11

Nvidia is still run by a founder, while the other two aren’t. I’d always bet on a founder over a McKinsey consultant or a Harvard MBA.

Plenty of MBAs and ex-McKinsey Consultants at NVIDIA (including leadership).

Nobody builds a company the size of NVIDIA alone.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#376

Post by SmokeyHamster »

ActorNightly wrote: post #265
SmokeyHamster wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is that even logistically possible for rivals at this point? You think AMD doesn't want to carve out a chunk of that pie? What Nvidia is doing is hard and the engineers with the skill to design those chips are few far between. I'm sure Nvidia's already hired most of the best in the business. Anyone who wants to unseat Nvidia will need very talented people, who aren't cheap, and that means massive investment capital w…

If you look at graphics performance, AMD already is pretty much on par with Nvidia. All of the math with graphics and ML is largely the same. The thing that is missing is AMD focusing their software engineers that develop the drivers, and making them put work into RoCM to make it usable across all cards, all driver versions, like with NVIDIA.

That's true. AMD does make some attractive Radeon cards.

However, the real killer feature now is CUDA. Everyone's coding for CUDA, which AMD's hardware doesn't support, so even if they have a GPU that's on par with Nvidia, most libraries still can't make full use of it.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#377

Post by nostrebored »

tomoyoirl wrote: post #107
nostrebored wrote: post #41

When you look at the moat for these companies, is it really justified? I just think about ARM and Intel/AMD. I find it hard to believe that existing GPUs with their memory bandwidth considerations are optimal architecture and that in 20y we will have the same compute model But the last time I did any work with cuda was a decade ago, so very rough ideas here

I’m not sure of all the details of the architecture, but my understanding is that there’s all sorts of “GPU Direct Storage” and massive on-chip CPU/GPU shared memory spaces on the new GH100s, plus all the Mellanox stuff for interconnects. At least in the datacenter space, anyway.

Thanks! The last time I cared about this I was doing SGD on GPU clusters and memory bandwidth was the limiting factor. Almost the entirety of the work was focused on chunking the problem so that a maximal number of subproblems was on the GPU.

If storage really is becoming integrated at similar speed (EG not on an order of magnitude difference like L2 vs RAM) then I think I'm wrong

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#378

Post by luckman212 »

benreesman wrote: post #349
FredPret wrote: post #348

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's very entertaining writing - almost NS-esque

I'm very flattered that you enjoyed my comment, it's been my observation that failed novelists are entertaining posters somewhere on the Internet :) "How's that novel coming Brian? Still working on that novel?" Levity aside, unfortunately this stuff is as real as Tuesday and taxes, and as serious as a heart attack used to be and an off-color tweet is now. This is the "Star Trek: TNG" v. "Blade Runner 2024" moment: fo…

What did I just read? Not sure... fuckin enjoyed it though.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#379

Post by HDThoreaun »

ein0p wrote: post #185
HDThoreaun wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Intel is jsut as much a competitor to Nvdia as AMD. I suspect they will work together on creating a CUDA alternative which is the biggest problem both of them face. If they can figure it out I dont see how nvdia isnt fucked as the money is in the big cloud purchasers who have every incentive to switch as soon as a legitimate alternative presents itself. Even if amd/intel dont beat Nvdia coming close with a product th…

Intel can’t even make a competitive CPU anymore, let alone a competitive compute-oriented GPU. It’s way behind on lithography, with no end in sight. Their GPUs also aren’t properly integrated with any popular DL framework. I honestly have no idea what they’re thinking. If I were them, at least PyTorch would work flawlessly with their current Arc offerings. It doesn’t - it’s a decidedly “enthusiast” affair for people…

I firmly believe intel is incompetent. I also firmly believe that with enough time and money they can come up with a decent offering. Their GPU is still very young, and theyve got plenty of time to figure it out. Theres just no way nvdia keeps its datacenter GPU stranglehold for a decade plus which is what theyd need to do for this market cap to make sense.
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