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Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

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Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#151

Post by thfuran »

FredPret wrote: post #23
behnamoh wrote: post #16

Somehow I wish it weren't true because I hate monopolies in any markets. Nvidia has been enjoying their absurd premium on consumer and production GPUs and intentionally removed the NVLink capability in the GeForce 4090 series (3090 had them) to avoid cannibalizing their A100 and H100 business. With NVLink, people could chain multiple GPUs and increase the overall VRAM without much reduction in bandwidth. But without…

I understand the sentiment. But the only reason you're mad at Nvidia is because they made something desirable (a GPU that does NN training) but didn't do it in the way you prefer (NVLink, Linux compatibility etc). It's not their fault AMD and others have been asleep at the wheel and handed them the whole market for free. Any company with a monopoly on the hot new thing would try to capitalize on it. When the other GP…

>Any company with a monopoly on the hot new thing would try to capitalize on it.

So what? "Any company with a monopoly" would also pay children in company scrip to work 20 hours a day in unsafe factories unless compelled to do otherwise.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#152

Post by Retric »

JoshTko wrote: post #53
ralph84 wrote: post #11

Nvidia is still run by a founder, while the other two aren’t. I’d always bet on a founder over a McKinsey consultant or a Harvard MBA.

This is a silly take the two largest companies are headed by non founder MBA grads. Each who grew their respective companies ~10x.

Which is underperforming compared to Nvidia.

It’s not that founders are more skilled, it’s that successful ones who stick around have different priorities. The long term performance of their existing stock is worth more than hitting targets. Not a guarantee of success, but something to consider.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#153

Post by rezonant »

JoshTko wrote: post #53
ralph84 wrote: post #11

Nvidia is still run by a founder, while the other two aren’t. I’d always bet on a founder over a McKinsey consultant or a Harvard MBA.

This is a silly take the two largest companies are headed by non founder MBA grads. Each who grew their respective companies ~10x.

Meanwhile I'm of the opinion that Google started it's slide downhill during Larry Page's time as CEO.

Somewhat ironically, I think Google's brightest days had Eric Schmidt (MBA, "adult in the room") as CEO.

This isn't to say MBAs are always a good thing either, and certainly Google isn't a typical example.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#154

Post by blackoil »

rezonant wrote: post #146
eru wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Watch out, different jurisdictions have different 'anti-trust' laws. And, especially in common law jurisdictions, interpretations of a law can also change over time.

Who's this warning for? Do we have any budding monopolists in the HN crowd who need the warning?

Maybe for not lawyers like me who pretend to be expert in everything :|

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#155

Post by HDThoreaun »

dave_sullivan wrote: post #6
beebmam wrote: post #3

It seems deeply overvalued to me, as it's pretty likely that NVIDIA's competitors will have parallel computation hardware that competes well enough. I'm personally not a fan of NVIDIA's drivers or the reliability of their hardware.

> I'm personally not a fan of NVIDIA's drivers or the reliability of their hardware. As compared to AMD or Intel? I wish there was real competition to Nvidia but there isn't. I'm not a fan of their defacto monopoly but they do have the best product on the market and their competition has been asleep for 10 years. AMD and Intel barely knew what deep learning was 10 years ago (and certainly did not appreciate the oppor…

As compared to a hypothetical product that is better than whats available today. With literally a trillion dollars on the line I find it very difficult to believe no one will come and scoop this opportunity up. The real value in GPUs is the datacenter segment which largely didnt exist, certainly not in that state it is today before the LLM take off. Takes time to develop products but theyll arrive eventually.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#156

Post by FredPret »

Ologn wrote: post #99
FredPret wrote: post #30

Nvidia has seen a fantastic, geometric increase in profit [1]. This is exactly the kind of thing growth investors hope for. However, their PE ratio is currently 93. This is the kind of PE growth investors buy at, hoping for geometric earnings growth to kick in, not the situation after such growth has taken place. Which means they'll have to keep 2x-ing that profit for a long time to come. It could be doable but I don…

What is their trailing P/E and what is their forward P/E? Their trailing P/E has January 2023, where their earnings were 1.41 billion, and revenues were 6.05 billion. Their last quarter earnings were 9.24 billion, and revenues were 18.12 billion. Their earnings last quarter were 50% more than, not their earnings in the first quarter, but their revenues in the first quarter.

What you're saying is equivalent to expecting the growth curve to continue for some time.

Forward PE hasn't happened yet and might never happen. Corporate earnings projections are numbers that come out of somebody's Excel and is justified by looking reasonable to an expert. It's a lot better than nothing, but I'm not betting the farm on that.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#157

Post by AnthonyMouse »

eru wrote: post #140
AnthonyMouse wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AMD has taken more CPU market share from Intel than Apple. But the weird thing about the "Nvidia will remain undefeated forever" theory is that it seems to assume they have some kind of permanent advantage. Nvidia was well positioned to make an early investment in this because they had the right combination of existing technology and resources. Other companies would have had to invest more because they were starting…

> It's like betting that Tesla will retain their 2022 market share in electric car market even as the market grows and everyone else gets in. Yes. Especially once you take the Chinese electric car companies into account, that are already outselling Tesla.

And even a Tesla optimist would presumably admit that maintaining a third of the EV market would be a huge win for Tesla, as the EV market becomes "the car market" going forward. Maybe that won't happen, but it's at least within the realm of possibility -- maybe some of the existing carmakers stick the transition and some of them fail, but Tesla remains the biggest one, that's not impossible.

But maintaining the 80% they had a few years ago, much less 100%? That's not optimism, it's fantasizing.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#158

Post by rezonant »

HDThoreaun wrote: post #155
dave_sullivan wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm personally not a fan of NVIDIA's drivers or the reliability of their hardware. As compared to AMD or Intel? I wish there was real competition to Nvidia but there isn't. I'm not a fan of their defacto monopoly but they do have the best product on the market and their competition has been asleep for 10 years. AMD and Intel barely knew what deep learning was 10 years ago (and certainly did not appreciate the oppor…

As compared to a hypothetical product that is better than whats available today. With literally a trillion dollars on the line I find it very difficult to believe no one will come and scoop this opportunity up. The real value in GPUs is the datacenter segment which largely didnt exist, certainly not in that state it is today before the LLM take off. Takes time to develop products but theyll arrive eventually.

Well there's not really a trillion dollars on the line. This is a valuation, not revenue.

All this says is that AI and LLMs are extremely over hyped, and the market believes Nvidia's tech is the only viable supplier of the platform LLMs run on.

These are things we already knew, so it's not surprising the market is quadrupling what it thinks Nvidia is worth.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#159

Post by HDThoreaun »

ein0p wrote: post #91

As much as I’d like to say it’s overpriced, its only potential competitor, AMD, is even more overpriced with an eye watering P/E of 324 as of right now, three times that of NVIDIA. Such numbers are stark raving insanity for hardware companies. For comparison, Apple, fully in possession of the world’s most valuable brand, and a gigantic money printer powered by a loyal, billion+ user strong customer base, and a deep p…

Intel is jsut as much a competitor to Nvdia as AMD. I suspect they will work together on creating a CUDA alternative which is the biggest problem both of them face. If they can figure it out I dont see how nvdia isnt fucked as the money is in the big cloud purchasers who have every incentive to switch as soon as a legitimate alternative presents itself. Even if amd/intel dont beat Nvdia coming close with a product that "just works" for half the price is certainly on the table and will be compelling for the hyperscalers.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#160

Post by selectodude »

jayd16 wrote: post #122
selectodude wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You using your market advantage to exploit your employer or do you feel like you’re being paid a fair amount?

I have exploitable market advantage? Explain.

Do you work in tech in the United States? Congratulations, you’re one of the wealthiest people on the planet. That’s one hell of a market advantage.
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