As much as I’d like to say it’s overpriced, its only potential competitor, AMD, is even more overpriced with an eye watering P/E of 324 as of right now, three times that of NVIDIA. Such numbers are stark raving insanity for hardware companies. For comparison, Apple, fully in possession of the world’s most valuable brand, and a gigantic money printer powered by a loyal, billion+ user strong customer base, and a deep pipeline of products, has P/E one third that of NVIDIA, and 1/10th of AMD. Make this make sense.
Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google
91–100 of 379 posts
Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google
#92At the time of posting this, NVIDIA has dropped below both companies.
I expect them to bounce back, but the headline as shared was not true at the time the article was submitted
Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google
#93Nvidia is a great company with a great and highly desired product. Unfortunately, NVDA the stock seems to have entered "meme stock" territory.
At least their GPUs are free.
Buy NVDA -> sell NVDA -> buy GPU
I did the same with TSLA, got a free car
Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google
#94Nvidia is a great company with a great and highly desired product. Unfortunately, NVDA the stock seems to have entered "meme stock" territory.
It's at a P/E of 95, which is high but not bubble levels. Doubling their earnings twice seems achievable with the AI hype and everything.
Meanwhile, Arm is at a P/E of 1650. That does seem completely unrealistic to me, also considering that they aren't even at the forefront of high-performance ARM designs themselves (that would be Apple, and they have a perpetual architectural license, I believe).
The second they squeeze on the licensing fees too hard, maybe due to pressure from shareholders to deliver on that valuation, they'll catalyze the creation of a RISC-V based opponent.
Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google
#95Somehow I wish it weren't true because I hate monopolies in any markets. Nvidia has been enjoying their absurd premium on consumer and production GPUs and intentionally removed the NVLink capability in the GeForce 4090 series (3090 had them) to avoid cannibalizing their A100 and H100 business. With NVLink, people could chain multiple GPUs and increase the overall VRAM without much reduction in bandwidth. But without…
I understand the sentiment. But the only reason you're mad at Nvidia is because they made something desirable (a GPU that does NN training) but didn't do it in the way you prefer (NVLink, Linux compatibility etc). It's not their fault AMD and others have been asleep at the wheel and handed them the whole market for free. Any company with a monopoly on the hot new thing would try to capitalize on it. When the other GP…
"You're only upset because they "
Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google
#96As much as I’d like to say it’s overpriced, its only potential competitor, AMD, is even more overpriced with an eye watering P/E of 324 as of right now, three times that of NVIDIA. Such numbers are stark raving insanity for hardware companies. For comparison, Apple, fully in possession of the world’s most valuable brand, and a gigantic money printer powered by a loyal, billion+ user strong customer base, and a deep p…
The forward PE is 31 for AMD, and Nvidia is at 33. Apple's forward PE is 26. The market prices are based on future expectations. Nvidia is expected to increase earnings by something like 3x, and AMD by 10X
Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google
#97Earlier quoted context omitted.
In the LLM world, each month is a year and each week is a month. AMD hasn't done anything substantive in the past two years since GPT-3/GPT-3.5. Almost every research paper implements their algorithm in CUDA. AMD can't beat software with good hardware.
Didn't AMD just commit to a CUDA compatible api? Did I hallucinate that?
If you mean the one posted here earlier today, I believe that article was more like “we paid a contractor to implement this, and then decided not to use it, so per our terms it’s open source now.”
Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google
#98It seems deeply overvalued to me, as it's pretty likely that NVIDIA's competitors will have parallel computation hardware that competes well enough. I'm personally not a fan of NVIDIA's drivers or the reliability of their hardware.
Google is actually working on 1st party datacenter chips. Although I doubt those would be user-facing GPUs.
Nobody other than Anthropic and a few other large cloud customers like that really cares what Google is working on. They bet the farm on a DL framework (Jax) with 2% market share. That’s a very deep hole to climb out of, particularly considering the popularity of PyTorch in generative AI space.
Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google
#99Nvidia has seen a fantastic, geometric increase in profit [1]. This is exactly the kind of thing growth investors hope for. However, their PE ratio is currently 93. This is the kind of PE growth investors buy at, hoping for geometric earnings growth to kick in, not the situation after such growth has taken place. Which means they'll have to keep 2x-ing that profit for a long time to come. It could be doable but I don…
What is their trailing P/E and what is their forward P/E?
Their trailing P/E has January 2023, where their earnings were 1.41 billion, and revenues were 6.05 billion. Their last quarter earnings were 9.24 billion, and revenues were 18.12 billion. Their earnings last quarter were 50% more than, not their earnings in the first quarter, but their revenues in the first quarter.
Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google
#100Earlier quoted context omitted.
Is it always about earnings? The market is all about speculation and trust. Unless a competitor obliterates them, I don't see their stock tanking more than 10%. Look at Apple, Google, or even Boeing. Boeing's doors are flying off the planes yet their stock is still higher than October 2023 crash. Nvidia can just go for a stock split and take care of the numbers quickly.
It's about earnings (freshly made money) and equity (existing money) and growth potential (future money). One way or another, they need to have money in order to distribute it to me, the investor (through dividends or buybacks). At a valuation of 90x earnings and only $0.02 in equity per dollar of market cap, I have to pay an insane premium to acquire: - an anemic stockpile of equity ($50b in assets - $22b in liabili…
Unrelated question: Do you have any stocks you are following and expecting to go high soon?