Nvidia is still run by a founder, while the other two aren’t. I’d always bet on a founder over a McKinsey consultant or a Harvard MBA.
Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google
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Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google
#12[dead]
Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google
#13It seems deeply overvalued to me, as it's pretty likely that NVIDIA's competitors will have parallel computation hardware that competes well enough. I'm personally not a fan of NVIDIA's drivers or the reliability of their hardware.
Google is actually working on 1st party datacenter chips. Although I doubt those would be user-facing GPUs.
The last decade of Google datacenter engineering can be viewed as an elaborate plan to avoid paying either Intel or Nvidia any more money than was really necessary.
Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google
#14It seems deeply overvalued to me, as it's pretty likely that NVIDIA's competitors will have parallel computation hardware that competes well enough. I'm personally not a fan of NVIDIA's drivers or the reliability of their hardware.
Not having done any GPU programming...is most of the code out there tied to the Nvidia architecture? I mean, if AMD or somebody else builds a better mousetrap, how much work would it be to switch?
Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google
#15Earlier quoted context omitted.
agreed, it's very high, but with M2 growing again such outlandish valuations seem sustainable. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WM2NS
What is the implication of M2?
It's the amount of money in the economy, and its growth is one measure of inflation. GP may be commenting that the "good times" of super-high valuations are about to come back thanks to inflation.
That isn't the financial datum that really matters, though - what matters for P/E ratios is the risk free rate (which establishes the discount rate for the time value of money), which is still very high.
Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google
#16Somehow I wish it weren't true because I hate monopolies in any markets. Nvidia has been enjoying their absurd premium on consumer and production GPUs and intentionally removed the NVLink capability in the GeForce 4090 series (3090 had them) to avoid cannibalizing their A100 and H100 business. With NVLink, people could chain multiple GPUs and increase the overall VRAM without much reduction in bandwidth. But without it, if you chain two 4090s, your effective bandwidth gets shrunk, so higher VRAM but much slower for LLM inference.
I'm with Linus Torvalds on this—f*** NVidia.
Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google
#17Insanity. How much of their success/future hinges on TSMC's continued success/future? Kudos to them but the risk makes me uneasy.
Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google
#18It seems deeply overvalued to me, as it's pretty likely that NVIDIA's competitors will have parallel computation hardware that competes well enough. I'm personally not a fan of NVIDIA's drivers or the reliability of their hardware.
Not having done any GPU programming...is most of the code out there tied to the Nvidia architecture? I mean, if AMD or somebody else builds a better mousetrap, how much work would it be to switch?
Most of the AI and ML related programming uses frameworks that abstract away what brand of GPU you are using. They could care less whether it is nvidia or AMD.
Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google
#19It seems deeply overvalued to me, as it's pretty likely that NVIDIA's competitors will have parallel computation hardware that competes well enough. I'm personally not a fan of NVIDIA's drivers or the reliability of their hardware.
I’m not sure I would bet an ads/spyware company with admittedly deep deep pockets would beat a specialized hyper focused company at its core business, especially as they have deeper pockets now with 30 years of experience in the sub sector. If Nvidia were wandering in the desert like Cisco I could believe it. But Nvidia isn’t, and I don’t believe Google, Amazon, or others will beat Nvidia at their own game. (Given my time in FAANG, I also speak from inside knowledge of how deeply f’ed these companies are - making your own arm chip or network adapter isn’t the same thing as taking on high end designers at their own game)
Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google
#20Earlier quoted context omitted.
Google is actually working on 1st party datacenter chips. Although I doubt those would be user-facing GPUs.
The last decade of Google datacenter engineering can be viewed as an elaborate plan to avoid paying either Intel or Nvidia any more money than was really necessary.
And, yet.