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Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

forbes.com

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Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#51

Post by FredPret »

what_ever wrote: post #44
FredPret wrote: post #30

Nvidia has seen a fantastic, geometric increase in profit [1]. This is exactly the kind of thing growth investors hope for. However, their PE ratio is currently 93. This is the kind of PE growth investors buy at, hoping for geometric earnings growth to kick in, not the situation after such growth has taken place. Which means they'll have to keep 2x-ing that profit for a long time to come. It could be doable but I don…

Wouldn't 2x-ing their profit over the next year get the PE down to half? Why do they need to 2x their profit for a long time to come?

Half is still crazy; 1/4 is what I would consider a little high (I'm a value investor). Especially for a tech company, I don't understand the rationale behind high valuations.

A high valuation makes sense to me if the asset will deliver a reliable cashflow over time, or if there's a high chance it'll start making much more cash in years to come.

More reliable / more growth = higher premium.

But tech companies come and go. Admittedly, Nvidia is more of an infrastructure company, but nobody can guarantee that they will be relevant 20 years from now, so even a PE of 20 seems risky to me.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#52

Post by [deleted] »

behnamoh wrote: post #37
system2 wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AMD is not too far behind. They can go wild in a few years.

In the LLM world, each month is a year and each week is a month. AMD hasn't done anything substantive in the past two years since GPT-3/GPT-3.5. Almost every research paper implements their algorithm in CUDA. AMD can't beat software with good hardware.

[deleted]

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#53

Post by JoshTko »

ralph84 wrote: post #11

Nvidia is still run by a founder, while the other two aren’t. I’d always bet on a founder over a McKinsey consultant or a Harvard MBA.

This is a silly take the two largest companies are headed by non founder MBA grads. Each who grew their respective companies ~10x.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#54

Post by MuffinFlavored »

behnamoh wrote: post #16

Somehow I wish it weren't true because I hate monopolies in any markets. Nvidia has been enjoying their absurd premium on consumer and production GPUs and intentionally removed the NVLink capability in the GeForce 4090 series (3090 had them) to avoid cannibalizing their A100 and H100 business. With NVLink, people could chain multiple GPUs and increase the overall VRAM without much reduction in bandwidth. But without…

> Somehow I wish it weren't true because I hate monopolies in any markets.

If you peel the layers back... isn't the real monopoly ASML?

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#56

Post by MuffinFlavored »

what_ever wrote: post #42
sebmellen wrote: post #2

And with a P/E ratio of 95, versus 25 and 59 for Google and Amazon, respectively!

Nvidia haven't released their latest earnings yet.

> NVIDIA Corporation Common Stock is expected* to report earnings on 02/21/2024 after market close.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#57

Post by mmaunder »

jumploops wrote: post #45

The crypto bubble (circa 2017/2018 [0]) looks like an ant hill compared to the recent Gen AI-based gains! $68/share in August 2018 would be $722/share today. [0] https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/08/22/the-cryptocurrency...

It’s the guy collecting currency shells on the beach compared to a new Iron Age and the guy who has all the iron.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#58

Post by virtue3 »

latchkey wrote: post #26
cowsandmilk wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most of the AI and ML related programming uses frameworks that abstract away what brand of GPU you are using. They could care less whether it is nvidia or AMD.

This is true for making things just work, however to really squeeze performance out of a GPU, you need to go lower level and that is tied to the architecture.

This has happened before and it will probably go the same way. Software and compilers will make up the difference, or hardware will become so cheap and ubiquitous it wont super matter.

In 3-5 years what will a 10% performance difference matter to you? Then calculate how much that 10% performance difference is going to cost in real dollars to run on nvidia hw and then the fun math should start.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#59

Post by __float »

llm_trw wrote: post #40
FredPret wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I understand the sentiment. But the only reason you're mad at Nvidia is because they made something desirable (a GPU that does NN training) but didn't do it in the way you prefer (NVLink, Linux compatibility etc). It's not their fault AMD and others have been asleep at the wheel and handed them the whole market for free. Any company with a monopoly on the hot new thing would try to capitalize on it. When the other GP…

There is _one_ other GPU maker.

Intel makes desktop cards too

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#60

Post by grogenaut »

jedberg wrote: post #10

Considering how much money Amazon and Google (and Microsoft and Oracle and....) are giving NVIDIA, this makes sense. Amazon and Microsoft in particular seem to be staking a pretty big part of their business on things that need GPUs. And even though Amazon makes GPUs, they are still buying NVIDIAs by the truckload.

Amazon buys whatever they can sell to customers. You want windows? We got that. Oracle, got it. Amd, got it, Intel, got that. Mac, got that. Arm? Got that. Nvidia, got it. Their own arms, got em. Their own training and inference? Got it.

They buy things by the cargo ship load.

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