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Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

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Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#31

Post by jgalt212 »

pclmulqdq wrote: post #15
brcmthrowaway wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is the implication of M2?

It's the amount of money in the economy, and its growth is one measure of inflation. GP may be commenting that the "good times" of super-high valuations are about to come back thanks to inflation. That isn't the financial datum that really matters, though - what matters for P/E ratios is the risk free rate (which establishes the discount rate for the time value of money), which is still very high.

> what matters for P/E ratios is the risk free rate

Where's the research showing the empirical relationship between P/E ratios and the risk free rate?

Also, we are living in a a time of unprecedented monetary aggregate growth (for the US at least). I posit his why the yield curve has been inverted for so long and yet there is no recession in sight. The predictive power of asset prices seemingly no longer exists.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#32

Post by hasmanean »

ralph84 wrote: post #11

Nvidia is still run by a founder, while the other two aren’t. I’d always bet on a founder over a McKinsey consultant or a Harvard MBA.

Well a founder can make decades long bets.

Any other company would have had an annual review of progress or a review any time mid-level leadership changed hands. Assuming a 50/50 chance of survival each time, the odds of the project lasting 10 years would be 1 in 1024.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#33

Post by tempsy »

Aeolun wrote: post #27

Hmm, AMD is worth 55B, and somehow almost keeping up. I'd consider that a success. I do think it's a bit sad they have basically no representation in the AI market though. Whenever it's about AI it's Nvidia all the way.

AMD's market cap is 278B

Not sure where you got 55B

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#34

Post by system2 »

behnamoh wrote: post #16

Somehow I wish it weren't true because I hate monopolies in any markets. Nvidia has been enjoying their absurd premium on consumer and production GPUs and intentionally removed the NVLink capability in the GeForce 4090 series (3090 had them) to avoid cannibalizing their A100 and H100 business. With NVLink, people could chain multiple GPUs and increase the overall VRAM without much reduction in bandwidth. But without…

AMD is not too far behind. They can go wild in a few years.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#35

Post by riku_iki »

fnordpiglet wrote: post #19
beebmam wrote: post #3

It seems deeply overvalued to me, as it's pretty likely that NVIDIA's competitors will have parallel computation hardware that competes well enough. I'm personally not a fan of NVIDIA's drivers or the reliability of their hardware.

I’m not sure I would bet an ads/spyware company with admittedly deep deep pockets would beat a specialized hyper focused company at its core business, especially as they have deeper pockets now with 30 years of experience in the sub sector. If Nvidia were wandering in the desert like Cisco I could believe it. But Nvidia isn’t, and I don’t believe Google, Amazon, or others will beat Nvidia at their own game. (Given my…

TPU is a thing and well competitive already for a long time?..

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#36

Post by what_ever »

fnordpiglet wrote: post #20
jeffbee wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The last decade of Google datacenter engineering can be viewed as an elaborate plan to avoid paying either Intel or Nvidia any more money than was really necessary.

And, yet.

Yet, what?

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#37

Post by behnamoh »

system2 wrote: post #34
behnamoh wrote: post #16

Somehow I wish it weren't true because I hate monopolies in any markets. Nvidia has been enjoying their absurd premium on consumer and production GPUs and intentionally removed the NVLink capability in the GeForce 4090 series (3090 had them) to avoid cannibalizing their A100 and H100 business. With NVLink, people could chain multiple GPUs and increase the overall VRAM without much reduction in bandwidth. But without…

AMD is not too far behind. They can go wild in a few years.

In the LLM world, each month is a year and each week is a month.

AMD hasn't done anything substantive in the past two years since GPT-3/GPT-3.5. Almost every research paper implements their algorithm in CUDA. AMD can't beat software with good hardware.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#38

Post by FredPret »

pclmulqdq wrote: post #15
brcmthrowaway wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is the implication of M2?

It's the amount of money in the economy, and its growth is one measure of inflation. GP may be commenting that the "good times" of super-high valuations are about to come back thanks to inflation. That isn't the financial datum that really matters, though - what matters for P/E ratios is the risk free rate (which establishes the discount rate for the time value of money), which is still very high.

By risk-free rate, do you mean the yield on US gov bonds?

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#39

Post by tuyguntn »

fnordpiglet wrote: post #19
beebmam wrote: post #3

It seems deeply overvalued to me, as it's pretty likely that NVIDIA's competitors will have parallel computation hardware that competes well enough. I'm personally not a fan of NVIDIA's drivers or the reliability of their hardware.

I’m not sure I would bet an ads/spyware company with admittedly deep deep pockets would beat a specialized hyper focused company at its core business, especially as they have deeper pockets now with 30 years of experience in the sub sector. If Nvidia were wandering in the desert like Cisco I could believe it. But Nvidia isn’t, and I don’t believe Google, Amazon, or others will beat Nvidia at their own game. (Given my…

don't underestimate market forces.

Same could have been told about Intel, but Apple anyway beat them in some ways and took away big market share

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#40

Post by llm_trw »

FredPret wrote: post #23
behnamoh wrote: post #16

Somehow I wish it weren't true because I hate monopolies in any markets. Nvidia has been enjoying their absurd premium on consumer and production GPUs and intentionally removed the NVLink capability in the GeForce 4090 series (3090 had them) to avoid cannibalizing their A100 and H100 business. With NVLink, people could chain multiple GPUs and increase the overall VRAM without much reduction in bandwidth. But without…

I understand the sentiment. But the only reason you're mad at Nvidia is because they made something desirable (a GPU that does NN training) but didn't do it in the way you prefer (NVLink, Linux compatibility etc). It's not their fault AMD and others have been asleep at the wheel and handed them the whole market for free. Any company with a monopoly on the hot new thing would try to capitalize on it. When the other GP…

There is _one_ other GPU maker.
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