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Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

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Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#341

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't take this advice unless you want massively subpar returns. The idea that picking individual companies is "gambling" is quite frankly ridiculous. The information around NVidia being a great company has been around for years and years and was obvious to anyone who took a look at the company performance. The same is true for companies like Netflix or Shopify. I invested in all three of the these companies for the…

This can work out so great if you do it well. In the legendary books Securities Analysis and The Intelligent Investor they recommend this approach if you are serious about researching and they also recommend diversifying into a variety of stocks - certainly more than 3. Personally I like your approach much more and it’s why I’m building https://ultimatestockpicker.com . I feel like there’s a ton of money rushing into…

Thank you for your insights.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#342

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Why don't you take a crack at your own question? There has to be a logical business reason right? Selling 30M GPUs with a huge margin is more profitable than selling 60M GPUs with a modest margin, and they can point to Bitcoin or AI as an excuse. But also, we're talking about them crippling the cards "for gamers" so there will be cards "for gamers" -- the premise of this has to be that they're supply constrained (a…

I think you answered your own question, really. Although I would modify your statement slightly: Original: Selling 30M GPUs with a huge margin is more profitable than selling 60M GPUs with a modest margin. Modified: Nvidia and AMD must sell at a higher ASP because the market for discrete GPUs has shrunk from 60m to 30m/year. That's your answer! It's what I've been arguing for since my very first post. It isn't Nvidia…

> Modified: Nvidia and AMD must sell at a higher ASP because the market for discrete GPUs has shrunk from 60m to 30m/year.

That makes no sense as a reason not to sell more.

It also makes no sense in general because discrete GPUs aren't a distinct technology. The H100 isn't literally a bunch of RTX cards glued together, but it's approximately that and the same R&D goes into both, implying that the higher demand for this technology should allow for lower ASPs as you now have a new source of demand to spread the R&D costs into.

And the same is true for consoles and laptops. It's the same technology, it's just soldered to something instead of being in a PCIe card. Discrete GPUs aren't expensive because they can't justify the cost of the printed circuit board without selling more units, they're expensive because the market is consolidated and in the absence of more competition, Nvidia charges what they can get away with even when that is far in excess of what they would need to charge simply to remain a viable business.

> I remember midrange GPUs that have great value such as the AMD HD 4850. I don't think those days are ever coming back.

The way you get those days back is to get more competition. Support AMD and Intel and anyone else who might present a viable challenge to Nvidia so that Nvidia has to provide better value for money to keep you from switching.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#343

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People want Apple to change because they can't handle Apple making such amazing products? That's certainly a brand new take. Elaborate?

It's pretty straight forward. Android provides all the openness people claim to want. Different device makers, different roms, different stores, side loading, etc... But people don't want to use Android or its hardware. People want to use iPhones and iOS and force Apple to add side loading, stores, etc... If Android were superior, no one would care what Apple did. Everyone would simply use Android.

Android's market share inside the United States is 42%. Globally, Android's market share is 70%. I don't think it's accurate to generalize that "people" don't want to use Android. Both platforms seem to have their pros and cons, like any comparable competing products.

I think the conversation around side loading and store royalties on iOS has more to do with who owns the hardware, and what the user is permitted to do by the manufacturer.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#344
post #269

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I did not intend to be confrontational and you are correct that talking up your company without declaring your affiliation is not against HN guidelines. I feel it is however a convention that is widely followed and for good reasons. Obviously your call at the end of the day.

The guidelines state: "Please don't use HN primarily for promotion. It's ok to post your own stuff part of the time, but the primary use of the site should be for curiosity." I was not "talking up" my company. I made a reference to it, by name, on a relevant thread. This is well within the guidelines.

If you'd added "where I work" you'd be fine.

This disclosure thing ain't a biggie to do

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#345

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't take this advice unless you want massively subpar returns. The idea that picking individual companies is "gambling" is quite frankly ridiculous. The information around NVidia being a great company has been around for years and years and was obvious to anyone who took a look at the company performance. The same is true for companies like Netflix or Shopify. I invested in all three of the these companies for the…

This can work out so great if you do it well. In the legendary books Securities Analysis and The Intelligent Investor they recommend this approach if you are serious about researching and they also recommend diversifying into a variety of stocks - certainly more than 3. Personally I like your approach much more and it’s why I’m building https://ultimatestockpicker.com . I feel like there’s a ton of money rushing into…

And the easiest way to diversify is to buy index funds. In the long run you do far less work and you probably beat people picking stocks and trying to compete with extremely well resourced finance firms. The comment above you is a great example of survivorship bias. He picked well. That is rare.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#346
post #340

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t have hard evidence of this, which makes it a thought experiment and not an assertion. Big-cap tech is utterly notorious for some of the worst anti-trust violations and other cartel-style behavior of any sector. This goes back as least as far as “Wintel” in the 90s and probably further that I didn’t watch up close. Suffice it to say that the Justice Department is extremely disincentivized to go after domestic…

Market segmentation generally benefits consumers though. Enterprise is willing to pay much more than an average consumer, and they buy a lot more PCs/gpus/etc than the average consumer , so if you banned market segmentation tomorrow the response would be that gpus get a lot more expensive. You can see that happening when miners or enterprises buy up gaming gpus (which they are doing right now with 4090s for example).…

I've addressed this point elsewhere in this thread and in a thousand other comments but it bears repeating: there are either zero or one groups of people who understand economics mathematically depending on whether or not Medallion is a a Ponzi scheme that's lasted 35 years (I tend to think they invented attention models at the same time LeCun invented working convolutional networks). If someone makes more money than the indices consistently by "using math" on markets they are lucky as hell (in a manifold compactness no fucking way sense), have some grey edge in the mix, or work at Ren.

Price discrimination is generally prohibited in naked form: it often if not usually induces market failures. So companies spare no expense working around it (there's a reason why ITA software people made a mint approximating NP-hard problems acceptably well and rather cheaply to compute airplane ticket prices).

"Market segmentation generally benefits consumers" is exactly the kind of Wien's Law first-order approximation that sounds compelling but doesn't fit the data.

It does not benefit consumers that a 4090 has the same amount of GDDR6 in it as a 3090, which is incidentally 2.6Gb shy of `dolphin-8x7b-v1-q4_k_m` (or whatever the NVIDIA equivalent is, I use Apple gear now because inference is the game now), while the price of that RAM dropped. The fact that an H100 or whatever the next Hopper iteration is costs more than an M-series BMW on paper says nothing about what Meta paid for 150k of them or whatever it was, and it certainly doesn't help someone who'd like a decent chat bot without sending their data to eyeball-scanner database guy. When you see a leading edge x090 for MSRP or less at Best Buy, it's a good idea to stock up if you're in the market over the last 5 years (London has been running ETH2 for what, a year and change now?). That hardly seems a subsidy to the consumer paid for by those spendthrifts in FAANG.

NVIDIA pioneered serious "GPGPU" engineering. 5-10 years ago their microarch and fab-sourcing and software and the whole show were legitimately differentiated, no one had done it. And they made a pile, and that pile seems "conflict-free". But anyone can make a fused multiply-add unit these days, EE undergraduates do it in Verilog. Intel makes PCI express cards that cost $300 and have higher memory bandwidth in the decoder-only language attention model use case. And their drivers are documented and work on everything.

Now did Lisa Su decide to "concentrate on the supercomputing market with the MI300XYZ" and Jensen decided to "concentrate on AI with Hopper" independently to a degree where the market is perfectly partitioned? Who knows, I certainly don't have proof one way or the other. But if someone made a call being like "I'm thinking of focusing on X but don't really see our differentiation in Y. How's Cathy?", it wouldn't be the fucking first time.

But even that isn't critical to the point: this, the here and now, isn't good for consumers, or society, or our industry, and unlike e.g. Stallman's melodrama, it fucking matters this time.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#347

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The guidelines state: "Please don't use HN primarily for promotion. It's ok to post your own stuff part of the time, but the primary use of the site should be for curiosity." I was not "talking up" my company. I made a reference to it, by name, on a relevant thread. This is well within the guidelines.

If you'd added "where I work" you'd be fine. This disclosure thing ain't a biggie to do

Had I realized that just listing my company name would create so many confrontational-made-up-rules responses, I would have gladly added [0] whatever disclosure comments necessary in order to silence the persistent self-anointed disclosure police mafia.

[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39361453

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#348
post #340

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Market segmentation generally benefits consumers though. Enterprise is willing to pay much more than an average consumer, and they buy a lot more PCs/gpus/etc than the average consumer , so if you banned market segmentation tomorrow the response would be that gpus get a lot more expensive. You can see that happening when miners or enterprises buy up gaming gpus (which they are doing right now with 4090s for example).…

I've addressed this point elsewhere in this thread and in a thousand other comments but it bears repeating: there are either zero or one groups of people who understand economics mathematically depending on whether or not Medallion is a a Ponzi scheme that's lasted 35 years (I tend to think they invented attention models at the same time LeCun invented working convolutional networks). If someone makes more money than…

That's very entertaining writing - almost NS-esque

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#349

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've addressed this point elsewhere in this thread and in a thousand other comments but it bears repeating: there are either zero or one groups of people who understand economics mathematically depending on whether or not Medallion is a a Ponzi scheme that's lasted 35 years (I tend to think they invented attention models at the same time LeCun invented working convolutional networks). If someone makes more money than…

That's very entertaining writing - almost NS-esque

I'm very flattered that you enjoyed my comment, it's been my observation that failed novelists are entertaining posters somewhere on the Internet :) "How's that novel coming Brian? Still working on that novel?"

Levity aside, unfortunately this stuff is as real as Tuesday and taxes, and as serious as a heart attack used to be and an off-color tweet is now. This is the "Star Trek: TNG" v. "Blade Runner 2024" moment: for the first time in history the endless cycle of tennis courts and guillotines and eventually a new crop of nepotism-fueled classism awaiting its turn at the guillotine might end up in a spontaneously broken symmetry.

There are like 5-10 unanimous markers of human achievement that machines can trivially reproduce or exceed, and everyone acknowledges Chess and Go and Atari and fan-fiction and ImageNet and ImageNet fan-fiction are in that box.

But think about what an LLM actually does:

`argmax(P(next_token | {previous_tokens, corpus, joint_alignment_loss, epsilon}))`

They're human in a really scary sense: there's an old saying that if you can only be good at one thing, be good at lying, because then you're good at everything. LLMs beat pick-up artists in bars and tech CEOs in all-hands meetings all to hell at vaguely riffing with a ruthless, amoral, and narrow goal. If I ask Dolphin to talk like a VC? It says "path-dependent" every third sentence like it's got a Substack and a Tesla and a very respectable 3-bedroom in Los Gatos or Atherton.

If this stuff was floating around 20 years ago? We'd throw out the donor class without a second thought on seeing that a MacBook can talk like any power-broker but better.

Today? The capture is so far along that we might end up handing the reigns of "alignment" over to "effective altruists", at which point the situation is pretty static.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#350
post #322
post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They did not add a compat layer, where did you get this? The recent news was about AMD giving up on that path.

https://github.com/vosen/ZLUDA They still funded it and it was created.

They only reason it is open source is because they decided not to go this direction.

They gave it to us instead of tossing it into the trash.

I don't know what you mean to imply by that.

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