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Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

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Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then why wouldn't they just make more of them? The excuse is supposed to be fab capacity, but the 3070 has better performance than the 4060 etc. and is built on the older process which should no longer be in short supply.

Then why wouldn't they just make more of them? The excuse is supposed to be fab capacity, but the 3070 has better performance than the 4060 etc. and is built on the older process which should no longer be in short supply. There is actually very little margins in the midrange consumer discrete GPU market. The market for discrete GPUs have been shrinking since the mid 2000s.[0] Most GPUs are sold as integrated such as…

> Most GPUs are sold as integrated such as SoCs and in consoles nowadays.

But those are mostly AMD, and doesn't really have anything to do with what features someone puts on their discrete gaming cards, except insofar as it implies gamers don't need the cards some amateur ML hobbyist might buy.

> In a shrinking market, the midrange and low-end products will cease to be profitable.

That's assuming the products have high independent development costs, but that isn't really the case. The low end products are essentially the high end products with fewer cores which use correspondingly less silicon -- which have higher yields because you don't need such a large area of perfect silicon or can sell a defective die as a slower part by disabling the defective section, making them profitable with a smaller margin per unit die area.

> Furthermore, node advancements have stopped scaling $/transistor. So the transistors aren't getting cheaper, just smaller.

Which implies that they can profitably continue producing almost-as-good GPUs on the older process node.

> Lastly, Nvidia wants to allocate every last wafer they pre-purchased from TSMC to their server GPUs.

Which is why the proposal is for them to make as many GPUs as the gamers could want at Samsung.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's about earnings (freshly made money) and equity (existing money) and growth potential (future money). One way or another, they need to have money in order to distribute it to me, the investor (through dividends or buybacks). At a valuation of 90x earnings and only $0.02 in equity per dollar of market cap, I have to pay an insane premium to acquire: - an anemic stockpile of equity ($50b in assets - $22b in liabili…

Unrelated question: Do you have any stocks you are following and expecting to go high soon?

Don't take financial advice from hacker news. Go to the bogleheads wiki, get a handle on your personal finances, then invest using a standard 3 fund spread in index funds. Picking individual stocks is just gambling.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#163
post #66

Nvidia has seen a fantastic, geometric increase in profit [1]. This is exactly the kind of thing growth investors hope for. However, their PE ratio is currently 93. This is the kind of PE growth investors buy at, hoping for geometric earnings growth to kick in, not the situation after such growth has taken place. Which means they'll have to keep 2x-ing that profit for a long time to come. It could be doable but I don…

Is it always about earnings? The market is all about speculation and trust. Unless a competitor obliterates them, I don't see their stock tanking more than 10%. Look at Apple, Google, or even Boeing. Boeing's doors are flying off the planes yet their stock is still higher than October 2023 crash. Nvidia can just go for a stock split and take care of the numbers quickly.

At the end of the day GPU copmpute is a commodity. I just cant see how nvdia has differentiated itself in a way that will last a decade plus. Theres too much money on the line for every competitor to be asleep at the wheel here. Eventually a competitor will have a compelling product and then nvdia will have to slash prices.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#164

Somehow I wish it weren't true because I hate monopolies in any markets. Nvidia has been enjoying their absurd premium on consumer and production GPUs and intentionally removed the NVLink capability in the GeForce 4090 series (3090 had them) to avoid cannibalizing their A100 and H100 business. With NVLink, people could chain multiple GPUs and increase the overall VRAM without much reduction in bandwidth. But without…

I understand the sentiment. But the only reason you're mad at Nvidia is because they made something desirable (a GPU that does NN training) but didn't do it in the way you prefer (NVLink, Linux compatibility etc). It's not their fault AMD and others have been asleep at the wheel and handed them the whole market for free. Any company with a monopoly on the hot new thing would try to capitalize on it. When the other GP…

Unfortunately, I think developers handed them the market too, it wasn't just the competition not being up to snuff.

Developers valued their own development experience, features, and performance over value, efficiency, portability, openness, or freedom. The result is anyone depending on CUDA became vendor locked to Nvidia. Similar as the story with Direct3D, though thankfully there are workable solutions for D3D now implemented on top of Vulkan. Nvidia's CUDA moat may be less fordable.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#165
post #34

Somehow I wish it weren't true because I hate monopolies in any markets. Nvidia has been enjoying their absurd premium on consumer and production GPUs and intentionally removed the NVLink capability in the GeForce 4090 series (3090 had them) to avoid cannibalizing their A100 and H100 business. With NVLink, people could chain multiple GPUs and increase the overall VRAM without much reduction in bandwidth. But without…

AMD is not too far behind. They can go wild in a few years.

Oh please, AMD's offerings are worse than Nvidia's in every imaginable way except the open source nature of their Linux drivers. ROCm is shit. Nvidia actually supports CUDA on almost any Nvidia card. ROCm not so much.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As compared to a hypothetical product that is better than whats available today. With literally a trillion dollars on the line I find it very difficult to believe no one will come and scoop this opportunity up. The real value in GPUs is the datacenter segment which largely didnt exist, certainly not in that state it is today before the LLM take off. Takes time to develop products but theyll arrive eventually.

Well there's not really a trillion dollars on the line. This is a valuation, not revenue. All this says is that AI and LLMs are extremely over hyped, and the market believes Nvidia's tech is the only viable supplier of the platform LLMs run on. These are things we already knew, so it's not surprising the market is quadrupling what it thinks Nvidia is worth.

Yes there is a trillion dollars on the line here. Market cap is what matters to investors end of the day, everything else is just influencing it. Yes the market is saying Nvdia is the only supplier for AI and LLM hype, but its also saying they will continue to be the only supplier long term and that seems deeply flawed to me.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#168

Somehow I wish it weren't true because I hate monopolies in any markets. Nvidia has been enjoying their absurd premium on consumer and production GPUs and intentionally removed the NVLink capability in the GeForce 4090 series (3090 had them) to avoid cannibalizing their A100 and H100 business. With NVLink, people could chain multiple GPUs and increase the overall VRAM without much reduction in bandwidth. But without…

I understand the sentiment. But the only reason you're mad at Nvidia is because they made something desirable (a GPU that does NN training) but didn't do it in the way you prefer (NVLink, Linux compatibility etc). It's not their fault AMD and others have been asleep at the wheel and handed them the whole market for free. Any company with a monopoly on the hot new thing would try to capitalize on it. When the other GP…

If AMDs version of “asleep at the wheel” is them eating Intels lunch for the last few years, I’d hate to see them awake.

Intel is weak, and it’s much smarter to put resources into squeezing Intel while they are on the ropes than shift too much focus to ML.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#169
post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's plenty of founders who ran their companies in to the ground, and even more who never got it off the ground in the first place. There's no guaranteed recipe for success.

We are talking successful founders here, that is a very different group from all founders. > There's no guaranteed recipe for success. Yes, which is why he said bet on, not know it will win.

[deleted]

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#170
post #91

As much as I’d like to say it’s overpriced, its only potential competitor, AMD, is even more overpriced with an eye watering P/E of 324 as of right now, three times that of NVIDIA. Such numbers are stark raving insanity for hardware companies. For comparison, Apple, fully in possession of the world’s most valuable brand, and a gigantic money printer powered by a loyal, billion+ user strong customer base, and a deep p…

The forward PE is 31 for AMD, and Nvidia is at 33. Apple's forward PE is 26. The market prices are based on future expectations. Nvidia is expected to increase earnings by something like 3x, and AMD by 10X

Apparently, AMD can remain irrational longer than retail investors can remain solvent.
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