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Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

forbes.com

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Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#101

Post by foolswisdom »

sebmellen wrote: post #2

And with a P/E ratio of 95, versus 25 and 59 for Google and Amazon, respectively!

That's a P/E ratio based on the past four reported quarters, over which time earnings at Nvidia increased so much that the earnings for the last reported quarter was over 4 times that of four quarters ago. Assuming that future earnings for the next year are consistent with the last reported quarter, they're valued at 45x earnings. But of course such a valuation still only reddit makes sense assuming growth (and the projected earnings for the next quarterly report is indeed expected to be 12% higher, giving a 40x p/e valuation). Consider that Amazon's P/E (using the last reported quarter as the baseline for the future - Amazon has had consistently increasing earnings over the last year, let's assume it doesn't decrease from here) is 43x.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#102

Post by HWR_14 »

dheera wrote: post #89
jumploops wrote: post #45

The crypto bubble (circa 2017/2018 [0]) looks like an ant hill compared to the recent Gen AI-based gains! $68/share in August 2018 would be $722/share today. [0] https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/08/22/the-cryptocurrency...

well $1000 of crypto in early-2017 would be worth $50000 now if you didn't panic sell in 2018 so ...

They were talking about the effect of crypto mining on NVidias stock price.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#103

Post by AnthonyMouse »

tuyguntn wrote: post #39
fnordpiglet wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m not sure I would bet an ads/spyware company with admittedly deep deep pockets would beat a specialized hyper focused company at its core business, especially as they have deeper pockets now with 30 years of experience in the sub sector. If Nvidia were wandering in the desert like Cisco I could believe it. But Nvidia isn’t, and I don’t believe Google, Amazon, or others will beat Nvidia at their own game. (Given my…

don't underestimate market forces. Same could have been told about Intel, but Apple anyway beat them in some ways and took away big market share

AMD has taken more CPU market share from Intel than Apple.

But the weird thing about the "Nvidia will remain undefeated forever" theory is that it seems to assume they have some kind of permanent advantage.

Nvidia was well positioned to make an early investment in this because they had the right combination of existing technology and resources. Other companies would have had to invest more because they were starting from a different place (e.g. Microsoft), or didn't have the resources to invest at the time (AMD).

But now the market is proven and there are more than half a dozen 800 pound gorillas who all want a piece of it. It's like betting that Tesla will retain their 2022 market share in electric car market even as the market grows and everyone else gets in. Maybe some of the others will stumble, but all of them? Apple, AMD, Google, Intel, Microsoft, Amazon and Facebook?

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#104

Post by lhl »

HWR_14 wrote: post #85
behnamoh wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the LLM world, each month is a year and each week is a month. AMD hasn't done anything substantive in the past two years since GPT-3/GPT-3.5. Almost every research paper implements their algorithm in CUDA. AMD can't beat software with good hardware.

Didn't AMD just commit to a CUDA compatible api? Did I hallucinate that?

Well, you probably read a inaccurate headline about it. The project is called ZLUDA https://github.com/vosen/ZLUDA and it had a recent public update because of the opposite - AMD decide not to continue sponsoring work on it:

> Shortly thereafter I got in contact with AMD and in early 2022 I have left Intel and signed a ZLUDA development contract with AMD. Once again I was asked for a far-reaching discretion: not to advertise the fact that AMD is evaluating ZLUDA and definitely not to make any commits to the public ZLUDA repo. After two years of development and some deliberation, AMD decided that there is no business case for running CUDA applications on AMD GPUs. > > One of the terms of my contract with AMD was that if AMD did not find it fit for further development, I could release it. Which brings us to today.

It's worth noting that while ZLUDA is a very cool project, it's probably not so relevant for ML. Also from the README:

> PyTorch received very little testing. ZLUDA's coverage of cuDNN APIs is very minimal (just enough to run ResNet-50) and realistically you won't get much running. > However if you are interested in trying it out you need to build it from sources with the settings below. Default PyTorch does not ship PTX and uses bundled NCCL which also builds without PTX:

PyTorch has OOTB ROCm support btw and while there are some CUDA-only libraries I'd like (FA2 for RDNA, bitsandbytes, ctranslate2, FlashInfer among others), I think sponsoring direct porting/upstreaming compatibility of the libraries probably makes more sense. Also from the ZLUDA README:

> ZLUDA offers limited support for performance libraries (cuDNN, cuBLAS, cuSPARSE, cuFFT, OptiX, NCCL).

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#105

Post by throwup238 »

latchkey wrote: post #28
FredPret wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I understand the sentiment. But the only reason you're mad at Nvidia is because they made something desirable (a GPU that does NN training) but didn't do it in the way you prefer (NVLink, Linux compatibility etc). It's not their fault AMD and others have been asleep at the wheel and handed them the whole market for free. Any company with a monopoly on the hot new thing would try to capitalize on it. When the other GP…

AMD has figured it out and is in the process of catching up. It won't happen over night though.

Yeah we’ll have power positive fusion any day now.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#106

Post by selectodude »

jayd16 wrote: post #95
FredPret wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I understand the sentiment. But the only reason you're mad at Nvidia is because they made something desirable (a GPU that does NN training) but didn't do it in the way you prefer (NVLink, Linux compatibility etc). It's not their fault AMD and others have been asleep at the wheel and handed them the whole market for free. Any company with a monopoly on the hot new thing would try to capitalize on it. When the other GP…

"You're only upset because they "

You using your market advantage to exploit your employer or do you feel like you’re being paid a fair amount?

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#107

Post by tomoyoirl »

nostrebored wrote: post #41

When you look at the moat for these companies, is it really justified? I just think about ARM and Intel/AMD. I find it hard to believe that existing GPUs with their memory bandwidth considerations are optimal architecture and that in 20y we will have the same compute model But the last time I did any work with cuda was a decade ago, so very rough ideas here

I’m not sure of all the details of the architecture, but my understanding is that there’s all sorts of “GPU Direct Storage” and massive on-chip CPU/GPU shared memory spaces on the new GH100s, plus all the Mellanox stuff for interconnects. At least in the datacenter space, anyway.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#108

Post by Wohlf »

ralph84 wrote: post #11

Nvidia is still run by a founder, while the other two aren’t. I’d always bet on a founder over a McKinsey consultant or a Harvard MBA.

There's plenty of founders who ran their companies in to the ground, and even more who never got it off the ground in the first place. There's no guaranteed recipe for success.

Re: Nvidia is now more valuable than Amazon and Google

#109

Post by latchkey »

throwup238 wrote: post #105
latchkey wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AMD has figured it out and is in the process of catching up. It won't happen over night though.

Yeah we’ll have power positive fusion any day now.

Azure, Oracle, Meta, Tesla, Hot Aisle... all buying up MI300x.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/06/meta-and-microsoft-to-buy-am...

https://www.tomshardware.com/news/amd-scores-two-big-wins-or...

https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intell...

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