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US inflation means families are spending $709 more per month than two years ago

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Re: US inflation means families are spending $709 more per month than two years ago

#142
post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Prices drop and people spend less? That's silly.

It’s not silly. If you know prices are only going down you might hold off on buying that house or car until later because you know you’ll just get it cheaper.

Depends if you need a house or not, the idea that people are treating future consumption as an investment does not seem to hold much weight. In a competitive market others will be making a similar gamble meaning rents will be higher than normal due to increased demand, and the market will normalize.

Re: US inflation means families are spending $709 more per month than two years ago

#143

As a parent with kids, I really don't know how folks are getting by with the prices of everything. I know folks who keep eating out, buying new vehicles, and even building new houses and I'm left scratching my head wondering how they afford all of this. I'm not saving nearly as much as I was years ago and I think my "lifestyle" has decreased post COVID (few vacations, eating out is a treat, gifts are for birthdays/ho…

With kid moving up to public school from pre-k we'll be saving an extra 2500$/month now. And in a couple years when our younger one is old enough that'll be another 2500$/month saved so I'm feeling pretty optimistic.

Those prices are insane. I'm in a rural area but our daycare is $150 a week.

Re: US inflation means families are spending $709 more per month than two years ago

#144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think a lot of people get into a mindset that a 25 year mortgage is meant to be paid off in 25 years, so that mindset guides their entire frame of reference for how large a lifestyle to adopt. I’m not saying to rush through a mortgage. Do whatever you want. But consider not getting into a situation where you’re somehow struggling even though you’re one of the lucky few who can afford to even own a home. When times…

Is it not meant to be paid off in 25 years?

Definitely pays off to invest more than the minimum required payments over 25 years. Not going to find better non callable leverage.

Re: US inflation means families are spending $709 more per month than two years ago

#145
Inflation has not been that high over the last two years. That $709/month is due to profit taking, I imagine. Inflation in the U.S. has not exceeded single digits in 40 years, and has been <3% for about a year (slightly over 3% last month).

Re: US inflation means families are spending $709 more per month than two years ago

#146
post #93
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not an actual Henry Ford quote fwiw. https://skeptics.stackexchange.com/questions/18247/did-henry...

Your link says it's a paraphrase rather than an exact quote. It still represents his sentiment accurately. But quoting Henry Ford, particularly his views on nefarious bankers, is a pretty questionable choice considering what he had to say about Jews.

This is a logical fallacy. His view on Jews has no effect on whether his statements on nefarious bankers are true.

You can quote me saying 1+1=2, even if 2 is my favorite number.

Now if he’s being misleading and you have evidence of that, then his feeling toward Jews might explain why he is biased

Re: US inflation means families are spending $709 more per month than two years ago

#147
post #98

I feel blessed to work in Tech, where -- however bad the economy is -- most of us dont face absolute deprivation as those in some other industries. That said, basic expectations of things growing up are just unreachable for many. My parents lived much more comfortable lives than I do. My grandparents even more so. Recall how food inflation was a major suspected cause of the Arab Spring ( https://www.pbs.org/newshour/…

> That said, basic expectations of things growing up are just unreachable for many. My parents lived much more comfortable lives than I do. My grandparents even more so. My wife’s grandma got married as a teenager to a trucker passing by because her family couldn’t support all their kids. This was not unusual in that generation.

Firstly I'm sorry to hear about your family's situation. I certainly dont mean to imply everything was rosy.

I will compare very roughly and anecdotally across generations. I'm an Engineer (CS). So was my father, though he ended up doing accounting. So was my grandfather (civil.)

My grandfather owned a home by 23 on his engineering salary.

My father owned a comfortable home by 35 on his salary. The salary:homeprice ratio was almost 1.5:1

My salary:homeprice ratio for the same exact house as my father is 4:1. Arguably, i'm better educated than my father and grandfather, and have much better credentials.

Im not trying to be ungrateful for what has been given to me, but the ratios seem completely off.

Re: US inflation means families are spending $709 more per month than two years ago

#148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> is a _LOT_ of debt being added, household debt is up to something like 17 trillion dollars Household debt to GDP is around at a multi-decade low [1]. Payments as a fraction of disposable income, similarly low [2]. Total debt is rising [3]. But non-housing debt rose 5.8% from Q2 2022 to the same quarter '23; that's about inflation. [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HDTGPDUSQ163N [2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/…

GDP isn't a good metric to compare household debt to. The US has an incredibly unequal society (see Gini index) and a lack of welfare compared to other Western countries. In aggregate, it means that debt is likely higher for households where that matters. The poor.

> GDP isn't a good metric to compare household debt to

It's a fantastic metric to compare aggregate debt to. It isn't the end of the story, which is why I also cited debt payments to disposable income.

American households are not, in aggregate, in a painful or even deteriorating position with respect to their debt. That doesn't mean many households, or even entire regions, e.g. West [1], aren't in pain.

[1] https://usafacts.org/articles/the-state-of-household-debt-in...

Re: US inflation means families are spending $709 more per month than two years ago

#149
post #15
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know how most people are doing it. For me it's because the asset bubble has inflated my stock income. I suspect a lot of folks who owned homes, stocks and other assets are feeling the wealth effect. For the rest of society, I don't know why they're not in the streets with pitchforks.

> my stock income My investment portfolio profits (or RSU vests or bonuses) never make their way to my checking account. Are people really dipping into their investment accounts to cover living costs? Maybe for home or car purchases?

I definitely never kept my RSUs after they vested. I always diversified them over the six months. I wouldn’t have used 25-30% of my cash income to invest in my company stock. Why would I keep my RSUs instead of selling them?

While I could live off of my base income working remotely in the burbs of Atlanta, there is no way that my friend who had to relocate to Seattle and had two kids and a wife could have managed on the same $160K base.

Re: US inflation means families are spending $709 more per month than two years ago

#150
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> my stock income My investment portfolio profits (or RSU vests or bonuses) never make their way to my checking account. Are people really dipping into their investment accounts to cover living costs? Maybe for home or car purchases?

My paycheck is quite small due to the massive tax withholding I need to pay the taxes on my RSUs. I don't currently spend more than a fraction of my shares but I certainly use some of the proceeds to pay monthly expenses. I also sell company stock as soon as I get it and diversify(currently just buying T-Bills) because keeping all your eggs in one basket(i.e. keeping your wealth in the stock of the company that pays…

You don’t have the option for the company to just sell enough stock to pay the taxes on the RSUs once they vest?
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