Live data from Hacker News

US inflation means families are spending $709 more per month than two years ago

cnn.com

111–120 of 327 posts

Re: US inflation means families are spending $709 more per month than two years ago

#111
post #81
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Deflation means a dollar tomorrow is always worth more than a dollar today meaning a rational person should strive to spend as little money today as possible. This eventually locks the entire economy up into a death spiral.

I'm curious to know if this is a real phenomenon that has been observed. Would you be able to point me in the direction of resources to learn more about this? The reason for my skepticism is that even without deflation, a dollar tomorrow is usually worth more than a dollar today, yet tons of people* don't save or invest much/any of their money, even if they're able to. * I'm speaking from the perspective of an Americ…

Japan had deflation. Can search for information on that. Many articles out there about it.

Re: US inflation means families are spending $709 more per month than two years ago

#112
post #17

What I don't understand is this 2% price target. Prices could go up 10% one year, and well call it a success if next year we "tame inflation" by only having our prices go up 2%. Why can't we target to get prices back down? For those on a fixed income, this is money we lost forever. We expect (and see) some prices go down every year (mainly electronics) and it works fine. But god forbid the price of milk goes down a b…

Governments are afraid of deflation (prices going down) because consumers can go into a holding pattern (stopping spending while waiting for prices to continue to decrease) which can cause the economy to stall out.

Speculative asset bubbles seem to tank money velocity more than small amounts of deflation. I think the 2% inflation target roughy yields the maximum long term sustainable capital gains tax.

Re: US inflation means families are spending $709 more per month than two years ago

#113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a _LOT_ of debt being added, household debt is up to something like 17 trillion dollars from like under 10 trillion pre pandemic. IMHO vehicles are huge drivers of debt. There are almost no cars under $30k now, and the average sale price of new cars is pushing up near $50k. This is for bog standard stuff like Hondas and Fords, not luxury cars. Used cars are incredibly expensive too. People are financing cars…

> is a _LOT_ of debt being added, household debt is up to something like 17 trillion dollars Household debt to GDP is around at a multi-decade low [1]. Payments as a fraction of disposable income, similarly low [2]. Total debt is rising [3]. But non-housing debt rose 5.8% from Q2 2022 to the same quarter '23; that's about inflation. [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HDTGPDUSQ163N [2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/…

GDP isn't a good metric to compare household debt to. The US has an incredibly unequal society (see Gini index) and a lack of welfare compared to other Western countries. In aggregate, it means that debt is likely higher for households where that matters. The poor.

Re: US inflation means families are spending $709 more per month than two years ago

#114
post #17

What I don't understand is this 2% price target. Prices could go up 10% one year, and well call it a success if next year we "tame inflation" by only having our prices go up 2%. Why can't we target to get prices back down? For those on a fixed income, this is money we lost forever. We expect (and see) some prices go down every year (mainly electronics) and it works fine. But god forbid the price of milk goes down a b…

Stickiness of nominal wages means thaf deflation leads to more rapid downsizing in industries facing slowdowns (including transitoy ones), which is among the reasons that the Fed, faced with a dual mandate of price stability and promoting full employment, prefers small positive inflation. There's also reason to believe that deflation is more likely to be sticky once entrenched than inflation, because the knock-on effects produce more deflation.

> For those on a fixed income, this is money we lost forever.

Yes, that's a fundamental problem with fixed incomes and why minimum support programs don't tend to use fixed nominal benefits across time. Most people aren’t on fixed incomes, and if we tried to manage price levels around people on fixed incomes, not only would it be bad for everyone else, but it would also threaten the investments underlying the sources of those fixed incomes (which aren’t really fixed, because they can drop, including to 0.)

Re: US inflation means families are spending $709 more per month than two years ago

#115

As a parent with kids, I really don't know how folks are getting by with the prices of everything. I know folks who keep eating out, buying new vehicles, and even building new houses and I'm left scratching my head wondering how they afford all of this. I'm not saving nearly as much as I was years ago and I think my "lifestyle" has decreased post COVID (few vacations, eating out is a treat, gifts are for birthdays/ho…

I think a lot of people get into a mindset that a 25 year mortgage is meant to be paid off in 25 years, so that mindset guides their entire frame of reference for how large a lifestyle to adopt. I’m not saying to rush through a mortgage. Do whatever you want. But consider not getting into a situation where you’re somehow struggling even though you’re one of the lucky few who can afford to even own a home. When times…

Is it not meant to be paid off in 25 years?

Re: US inflation means families are spending $709 more per month than two years ago

#116
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>IMHO vehicles are huge drivers of debt. There are almost no cars under $30k now, and the average sale price of new cars is pushing up near $50k. This is for bog standard stuff like Hondas and Fords, not luxury cars. I went on toyota.com and a base level corolla is only selling for $22,795. This includes a "Delivery, Processing & Handling" charge of $1,095. If for whatever reason you think that driving a compact car…

Goooooooood luck driving off a dealer lot with a $22k Toyota! Seriously, if you can do it then good on you! But back in the real world the on the lot availability of cars is abysmal and most makes are sold out for months of backlog. Like if you want a Toyota minivan it's something like a 2 year wait--unless you are willing to buy one on the lot with a $10k dealer markup.

Minivans are a special case that's not a good example. Minivan's have been drastically dropping in popularity (as defined by market share)for the last 20 years. Many models have been discontinued, and remaining models are being made in much lower quantity. It's basically a very niche product at this point at somewhere around 2% of all new vehicles sold.

Now there are only really 5 models of minivan left, so any small jump in purchasing, or misforecasts by a manufacturer leads to huge backlogs.

Re: US inflation means families are spending $709 more per month than two years ago

#117

As a parent with kids, I really don't know how folks are getting by with the prices of everything. I know folks who keep eating out, buying new vehicles, and even building new houses and I'm left scratching my head wondering how they afford all of this. I'm not saving nearly as much as I was years ago and I think my "lifestyle" has decreased post COVID (few vacations, eating out is a treat, gifts are for birthdays/ho…

> I know folks who keep eating out, buying new vehicles, and even building new houses and I'm left scratching my head wondering how they afford all of this.

You can never judge people's financial situations from their spending habits.

Someone in my extended family spent years living large, buying new cars, building new houses, and wearing nice clothes. They had a family business and always said that the business wad doing well. Several years later the husband died unexpectedly. His wife was suddenly struggling to make ends meet, despite nothing actually changing with their "business".

As we later discovered, they were experts at amassing debt. The business wasn't really successful but they had used every possible angle to get more lines of credit, debt, "investments", and loans. They had even made a habit of "buying" supplies from vendors with Net 30 terms, reselling them, and then never paying the vendors back. They moved from state to state to scam new vendors every time they were blacklisted by the all of their local vendors.

That's an extreme example, but it highlights how appearances can differ so much from reality. More commonly, I think a lot of people just never learned how to save anything at all. I know an alarming number of people in their 30s who still haven't bothered saving anything more than the $1-10K they have in their checking account at a given time. When the number goes up, they spend it back down. You could have the same net income as these people but never achieve their level of lifestyle spending because you're doing some savings.

On the other end of the spectrum, many people are actually doing well. Wages are up (contrary to what you see on social media) and people's investments have done very well in recent years. Many of my friends are doing quite well for themselves by simply getting working a little harder to get jobs that pay a little above average and then carefully budgeting and investing over the long haul. Do this for a couple decades with some careful attention paid to where you live and the job you get and it's not hard to get a rather comfortable financial position by 40, especially in tech.

Re: US inflation means families are spending $709 more per month than two years ago

#118
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know how most people are doing it. For me it's because the asset bubble has inflated my stock income. I suspect a lot of folks who owned homes, stocks and other assets are feeling the wealth effect. For the rest of society, I don't know why they're not in the streets with pitchforks.

One of the biggest opponent of minimum wage increase are the one who's in that category. 43% of Ohio voters voted against their own interest last week. Majority of them are in lower side of the income.

Minimum wage has no effect on inflation huh?

Re: US inflation means families are spending $709 more per month than two years ago

#119
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>IMHO vehicles are huge drivers of debt. There are almost no cars under $30k now, and the average sale price of new cars is pushing up near $50k. This is for bog standard stuff like Hondas and Fords, not luxury cars. I went on toyota.com and a base level corolla is only selling for $22,795. This includes a "Delivery, Processing & Handling" charge of $1,095. If for whatever reason you think that driving a compact car…

Toyota doesn’t sell direct to consumer. Good luck getting it at that price! Have fun hearing from salesmen when you call for the real price.

Having gone through this two years ago at the height of car unavailability, it really was take what was available. You don’t want that $50 first aid kit that comes in a canvas bag and has a few band aids in it? Too bad, you’re buying it. (I offered to sell mine to the sales person, but he wouldn’t bite.) don’t want the rails that could just be unscrewed by literally anyone at the dealership, too bad, $500. Fortunately, those were the only things we were stuck with.

When Scion was around it was supposed to be customer driven, but the sales people were the same Toyota salespeople and couldn’t help themselves. Are treacherous people drawn to (car) sales or does sales make people treacherous?

Re: US inflation means families are spending $709 more per month than two years ago

#120
I'm not a high paid tech worker like the rest of you, but I've never really considered the price of individual grocery items as a factor in buying it. If something was on sale - great, and I'd prefer that over other options. Otherwise I'd just fling stuff in my cart.

Now? I regularly don't buy things after seeing their price. It's not that we can't afford it, but I simply can't stomach the price. I'm not paying $11 for two shrinkflationed bags of "regular size" Doritos apparently on sale. An empty calorie snack like that just isn't worth it for me, and it pisses me off that they'll charge that much for what's basically a small amount of corn...and that enough people still buy it to maintain that price.

Eventually I may adjust to these new prices, but in the interim I'm regularly shocked at what things cost and it's causing me to spend less.

Post reply on HN