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US inflation means families are spending $709 more per month than two years ago

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Re: US inflation means families are spending $709 more per month than two years ago

#91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Governments are afraid of deflation (prices going down) because consumers can go into a holding pattern (stopping spending while waiting for prices to continue to decrease) which can cause the economy to stall out.

Prices drop and people spend less? That's silly.

It’s not silly. If you know prices are only going down you might hold off on buying that house or car until later because you know you’ll just get it cheaper.

Re: US inflation means families are spending $709 more per month than two years ago

#92
post #17

What I don't understand is this 2% price target. Prices could go up 10% one year, and well call it a success if next year we "tame inflation" by only having our prices go up 2%. Why can't we target to get prices back down? For those on a fixed income, this is money we lost forever. We expect (and see) some prices go down every year (mainly electronics) and it works fine. But god forbid the price of milk goes down a b…

Most of the other responses are missing the point of your question. You really asking why central banks don't engage in targeting the price level, rather than price changes (=inflation). In price level targeting, they'd aim for higher (lower) inflation next year if they under-(over-)shot their target this year.

Academics and have studies the pros and cons. I don't have time to post summaries, but maybe someone else can step in:

https://www.stlouisfed.org/-/media/project/frbstl/stlouisfed...

https://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb2002_3.pdf

Re: US inflation means families are spending $709 more per month than two years ago

#93
post #79
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning." - Henry Ford

Not an actual Henry Ford quote fwiw. https://skeptics.stackexchange.com/questions/18247/did-henry...

Your link says it's a paraphrase rather than an exact quote. It still represents his sentiment accurately.

But quoting Henry Ford, particularly his views on nefarious bankers, is a pretty questionable choice considering what he had to say about Jews.

Re: US inflation means families are spending $709 more per month than two years ago

#94
post #78
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is base. How many people buy the base model?

That's moving the goalposts, because the original claim was that "There are almost no cars under $30k now".

The base models don't exist except for fleet sales right now. A regular consumer literally cannot buy one.

Re: US inflation means families are spending $709 more per month than two years ago

#96
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Same. I make decent money and used to save thousands per month. Now I'm lucky to stash away high hundreds a month, but any expense like new brakes wipes that out. I wonder how in the world everyone else is getting by. Maybe we're all just smiling and pretending here...

I live alone and just realized I’ve been spending $1300/month this year on groceries. For one person.

That sounds like a you problem. I spend $400/month and that would be a lot lower without an obsessive cycling habit which necessitates eating about double the calories of a more sedentary individual my size.

Like please share a receipt that shows how you spent $325 for one week's groceries. $43/day?? Maybe you're eating fresh fish every meal?

Re: US inflation means families are spending $709 more per month than two years ago

#97
post #17

What I don't understand is this 2% price target. Prices could go up 10% one year, and well call it a success if next year we "tame inflation" by only having our prices go up 2%. Why can't we target to get prices back down? For those on a fixed income, this is money we lost forever. We expect (and see) some prices go down every year (mainly electronics) and it works fine. But god forbid the price of milk goes down a b…

Governments are afraid of deflation (prices going down) because consumers can go into a holding pattern (stopping spending while waiting for prices to continue to decrease) which can cause the economy to stall out.

Is there any evidence that modest deflation actually causes this "holding pattern" in the overall economy? I see this theory stated a lot for the reason that deflation is bad, and it definitely checks out on a basic logical level. But economics is complex right? So I'm curious what the evidence is in the real world.

I can imagine this happening with large deflation (10%, say), but what about 2% or 1%? It's not obvious to me that people would not buy a TV they really wanted if they knew it would be $392 instead of $400 next year. If consumers actually acted this sensitively toward a drop in prices, then wouldn't nearly all consumers wait for sales for all purchases? But we know that is not the case. Hell, if consumers were this sensitive toward their finances, they certainly wouldn't pay lots of interest on avoidable credit card debt, right?

Re: US inflation means families are spending $709 more per month than two years ago

#98

I feel blessed to work in Tech, where -- however bad the economy is -- most of us dont face absolute deprivation as those in some other industries. That said, basic expectations of things growing up are just unreachable for many. My parents lived much more comfortable lives than I do. My grandparents even more so. Recall how food inflation was a major suspected cause of the Arab Spring ( https://www.pbs.org/newshour/…

> That said, basic expectations of things growing up are just unreachable for many. My parents lived much more comfortable lives than I do. My grandparents even more so.

My wife’s grandma got married as a teenager to a trucker passing by because her family couldn’t support all their kids. This was not unusual in that generation.

Re: US inflation means families are spending $709 more per month than two years ago

#99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Governments are afraid of deflation (prices going down) because consumers can go into a holding pattern (stopping spending while waiting for prices to continue to decrease) which can cause the economy to stall out.

Prices drop and people spend less? That's silly.

It's more people see prices dropping hence their money increase in relative value so they save up more instead of spending it.

Re: US inflation means families are spending $709 more per month than two years ago

#100

As a parent with kids, I really don't know how folks are getting by with the prices of everything. I know folks who keep eating out, buying new vehicles, and even building new houses and I'm left scratching my head wondering how they afford all of this. I'm not saving nearly as much as I was years ago and I think my "lifestyle" has decreased post COVID (few vacations, eating out is a treat, gifts are for birthdays/ho…

There is a _LOT_ of debt being added, household debt is up to something like 17 trillion dollars from like under 10 trillion pre pandemic. IMHO vehicles are huge drivers of debt. There are almost no cars under $30k now, and the average sale price of new cars is pushing up near $50k. This is for bog standard stuff like Hondas and Fords, not luxury cars. Used cars are incredibly expensive too. People are financing cars…

> is a _LOT_ of debt being added, household debt is up to something like 17 trillion dollars

Household debt to GDP is around at a multi-decade low [1]. Payments as a fraction of disposable income, similarly low [2]. Total debt is rising [3]. But non-housing debt rose 5.8% from Q2 2022 to the same quarter '23; that's about inflation.

[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HDTGPDUSQ163N

[2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TDSP

[3] https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc

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