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Post-GPT Computing

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Re: Post-GPT Computing

#491

Post by CatWChainsaw »

gitfan86 wrote: post #98
nunez wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, and look at where YouTube is now. Millions of creators grinding for pennies while the lucky ones that got in early and made it rake in the profits. I think success in tech is going to become extremely pyramidal in the coming years. This is a huge shame, as this was one of the only fields out there where you could make a really good living without going to the "right" school for years and years and years.

Yes, but we are in a world of abundance. Most people carry around what would be in 1980 a 10 million dollar supercomputer in their pocket. 10 years from now we might have the equivalent of what today costs 10 million dollars today. Automated farming means what today we consider high end and expensive produce becomes almost free. Automated transportation means that food gets delivered to you for almost nothing. Imagin…

What good is abundance if we haven't used it to minimize suffering? It's a good laugh whenever people think AI will democratize things. Summer children and their little daydreams.

Re: Post-GPT Computing

#492

Post by omaranto »

devjab wrote: post #265
idopmstuff wrote: post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm a PM who is relatively technical, but I haven't written more than a few lines of code (stuff like minor modifications to my Shopify site) in a decade. I saw a bunch of people talking about how GPT helped them code stuff on Twitter, so I thought I'd give it a try. Right now I'm building a sort of simple, mock version of the type of software that integrates with my company's APIs. I've successfully managed to creat…

One of the reasons I'm not blown away is that everything we've tasked it to do has resulted in rather terrible answers. A lot of them outright didn't work. When they did, the way GPT created our solutions were often in a way that wouldn't work well over time. Unfortunately you wouldn't necessarily know that unless you really know your tools. In many ways, this isn't too different from people performing brute-force pr…

> I'm still impressed with it in other areas.

You mean in areas you are less expert in? :) Maybe it's bad at everything, but each person can only tell when it comes to their own area of expertise.

Re: Post-GPT Computing

#493

Post by epylar »

jandrewrogers wrote: post #161
coldtea wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Yes, but we are in a world of abundance. Most people carry around what would be in 1980 a 10 million dollar supercomputer in their pocket. Most people also don't have $1000 for an emergency, live hand to mouth, and are dead scared of the cost and impact of a potential health issue. They are also overworked, underpaid, and with raising expenses, and sick of it, with depression levels skyrocketing. Having "a 10 milli…

> Most people also don't have $1000 for an emergency This has been debunked many times. The source is misleading to the point of being deceptive, it is pushing a narrative. Per the US government, the median household has $1000 per month leftover after all ordinary expenses. A very detailed breakdown of this for each income decile is available from the BLS. You can’t square “most Americans can’t afford a $1000 emergen…

What are the figures by year? Is 2021 an outlier?

Re: Post-GPT Computing

#494

Post by somethingreen »

Nemi wrote: post #488
somethingreen wrote: post #389

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If there is a way to produce senior software engineers without years of work experience, why aren't we doing it now?

There is no way. What I am alluding to is that, the only people who will go down the path of being a junior to senior dev are those that truly love the field. It will purge those that only go down the path because they think it will make them a lot of money. Is this good or bad? Only you can decide. What I didn’t say but should be a given is that these AI tools won’t be able to completely eliminate the need for any h…

In order to be able to make use of the code produced by AI - be it review, validate, fix, integrate or iterate - operator needs to ultimately be better than AI at making software. (Unless we abandon the idea of understanding what exactly software we are running does)

The question then is how exactly does one become better than AI at making software if no one is going to pay you to make software until you are better than AI?

The same issue with art - we need a sea of mediocre artists and a market for their work for great artists to emerge. AI takes over mediocre art market - all commercially driven art disappears.

Re: Post-GPT Computing

#495

Post by breck »

rdg42 wrote: post #102
breck wrote: post #26

> OpenAI made the extraordinary and IMO under-discussed decision to use an open API specification format, where every API provider hosts a text file on their website saying how to use their API. Interesting! Somehow I missed this. https://spec.openapis.org/oas/latest.html

Mixing up OpenAI with OpenAPI here ?

Ah, I think you're right!

Re: Post-GPT Computing

#496

Post by green_man_lives »

namaria wrote: post #385
green_man_lives wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The first time around (and every subsequent time) the tools used for production, lets call them capital, made laborers more efficient and cheapened goods and drove wages up (mostly). In all of these cases there was still the need for a laborer. At a point when all labor is obsolete there will be literally no method of survival for anyone who doesn't own the "compute capital". The two options will be to let everyone s…

Laborers are not fungible you know. There is plenty of evidence of lives ruined by industrial change. The fact that the net result is positive doesn't mean that everyone profits equally. Having lived in capitalistic societies should have made that clear already.

I never said that it was. I just explained why this time was different. Innovation always hurts people but it benefits enough people that there's not massive social unrest. I am not making a moral assertion here just pointing out the qualitative difference.

Re: Post-GPT Computing

#497

Post by CatWChainsaw »

nextlevelwizard wrote: post #410
ROTMetro wrote: post #408

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fletching, creating an arrowhead (that needs to be small and perfect) goes through way more material than a hand held obsidian blade, you are not necessarily saving on labour switching to arrows, especially as you now have introduced multiple specialized skills that require hundreds of hours of practice across multiple tribal members (the opposite of this, where you go down to a few babysitters to finesse the final c…

>you're quota of mammoths to kill a day didn't go up Expect with more efficient hunting methods you could kill more than you did before per day, which meant less hunting days, which meant more time with the wife which in turn meant bigger tribe, which in turn meant you actually had to increase your quota. Just because you are more efficient doesnt mean your manager becomes an idiot and starts to demand unreasonable o…

Sounds like it's an argument not to maximize output at every possible opportunity, just because it's possible?

More, more, more, always more, the ideology of infinite growth belongs to a cancer. Quite literally a self-defeating, pathological mindset. More brought us here, to the present day, and it will probably bring us over a Seneca cliff too.

That's the thing about ambition. It means you will never be content.

Re: Post-GPT Computing

#498

Post by gitfan86 »

CatWChainsaw wrote: post #491
gitfan86 wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but we are in a world of abundance. Most people carry around what would be in 1980 a 10 million dollar supercomputer in their pocket. 10 years from now we might have the equivalent of what today costs 10 million dollars today. Automated farming means what today we consider high end and expensive produce becomes almost free. Automated transportation means that food gets delivered to you for almost nothing. Imagin…

What good is abundance if we haven't used it to minimize suffering? It's a good laugh whenever people think AI will democratize things. Summer children and their little daydreams.

The 100 million people in India who are no longer in poverty do not matter?

Obviously the target number of starving children is zero. But the reality is that we are not going to get that number to zero overnight. It takes incremental steps.

Re: Post-GPT Computing

#499

Post by thequadehunter »

mrtksn wrote: post #477
thequadehunter wrote: post #368

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just FYI for non-Americans...most Americans are insured and doctors visits don't cost 10k. Major surgeries might, but your insurance usually caps at a certain number in the 2-8k range for the whole year. Not saying the system isn't bad, but 10k for a doctor's visit is kind of a stretch...

It doesn’t matter who pays for it, in the statistics it appears that an appendicitis generates much more economic activity in the USA than EU. Healthcare spending per capita in the USA is 12K, the second most expensive is Germany and it’s 7K. The life expectancy in Germany is 82 and in the USA is 77, so it’s not the case that Americans are getting much better one, explaining the higher costs. Oh and that appendicitis…

All your points I agree with. I didn't say it was a good system. I've lived in Japan and I loved the government health insurance. One of my biggest annoyances about being back in the US is how I get my insurance through my job, so now every time I hop jobs I have to do the stupid math and figure out the new employer's health crap.

I'm just saying that I see these weird takes about Americans paying like 10k for a single visit when that's just not the reality for most people. Only 8.6% of Americans were uninsured in 2020. Most insurance plans have a cap that doesn't even allow you to pay more than like 2-10k in an entire year.

Is it more expensive? Duh. It's just that there's more nuance to the issue. If I wasn't American (or I was an American that didn't understand how insurance actually works) I might have read that and believed that the poor Americans are all living in hell.

So yeah...we can talk about the issue because it's a big deal. In fact, I think it's the #1 biggest problem with American society right now and it's maddening that I never see anyone focusing on it. However, I don't like to see this kind of hyperbole from OP because people turn their brains off and stop looking at the facts.

Re: Post-GPT Computing

#500

Post by anonyfox »

namaria wrote: post #390
margorczynski wrote: post #325

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The thing is then the people in power were reliant on other people to provide force. What happens when the tech-overlords and government cliques put their hands on perfect robot AI slaves which are completely superior to humans when it comes to fighting?

Kill bot enforced gated communities and a free for all outside, naturally. Maybe in due time we have a second industrial revolution and rebuild modern society ourselves...

I think with the advanced level of weaponry we (will) have, the is no thing like a truly gated community no matter the bots.

And given the amount of time needed to actually build this against the current pace of AI progress, the angry mob should materialize itself much earlier. French Nobles didn’t see the Guillotine coming either, even like a day before the revolution

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