ChatGPT will destroy GitHub and NPM long before it destroys programming.
What do I need them for if I can get equivalent code written for me on-demand?
Post-GPT Computing
361–370 of 504 posts
Re: Post-GPT Computing
#362> Yesterday, I watched someone upload a video file to a chat app, ask a language model “Can you extract the first 5 s of the video?”, and then wait as the language model wrote a few lines of code and then actually executed that code, resulting in a downloadable video file. What chat app? Is this gpt-4? I haven't seen anything executing the code that is generated. So is the above quote a hypothetical or what?
Yes, this happened using GPT-4 and a coding plugin:
Re: Post-GPT Computing
#363I don’t get the overall doom and gloom towards LLMs on the software field. If you are a software engineer, this will output your productivity ten fold on the upcoming years. Now you don’t need to hire junior devs and can just build the product of your dreams with very limited capital. In my opinion this technology will be as democratising as the YouTube’s early days. Instead of worrying, learn to work with it. It wil…
> If you are a software engineer, this will output your productivity ten fold on the upcoming years. Is this really true? I may be missing something (I probably am), but I didn't find much use for AI tools in my itsec/programming work. It's a nice tool to have, but I don't write that much boilerplate. I've tried to use it as a better Google, but it kept replying with made up nonsense (things I have problem with are u…
What exactly are you working on and which "AI tool" did you try? I will bet you $20 that GPT-4 (which can take 80kb of API docs or examples in the 32k model and is a very good programmer) if given reference info in your domain and a good prompt to think through the problem and solution step-by-step will be able to do very well.
So the future is anyone with that model access (the 8k tokens could have 20kb of docs which is still useful) who wants to really try.
Re: Post-GPT Computing
#364> Yesterday, I watched someone upload a video file to a chat app, ask a language model “Can you extract the first 5 s of the video?”, and then wait as the language model wrote a few lines of code and then actually executed that code, resulting in a downloadable video file. What chat app? Is this gpt-4? I haven't seen anything executing the code that is generated. So is the above quote a hypothetical or what?
Yes, this happened using GPT-4 and a coding plugin: https://twitter.com/gdb/status/1638971232443076609
Roger, ty for the info.
Re: Post-GPT Computing
#365Earlier quoted context omitted.
I mean this in the least snarky, most sympathetic way possible: it's time to level up. Countless roles have had to do this, it's now our turn.
I've been leveling up since I started as a helpdesk rep at 18, becoming a Windows sysadmin, then a junior dev, and now a senior dev. College was not an option for me for reasons totally outside of my control, as my parents decided to not do their taxes for a number of years and I was unable to get any financial aid (grants or loans) whatsoever. I scratched and clawed, read tons of books, blogs, spent extra time polis…
No jobs will be safe. In the very, very near future.
GPT-4 is a very capable systems architect and can also implement the code. There are a few tools available to put it in a debug loop. Writing documents is a walk in the park for GPT-4. Emails or Discord chats or even perfectly realistic voice conversations are completely doable (I have that on my website).
At this point it's about connecting things together and looping them properly to automate a very high portion of jobs.
I think the answer is not employment but rather production. Think of something you can leverage these AIs that would be interesting or useful to someone else or some business.
Beyond that things like UBI and generally better integration of technology into government is going to be critical for our survival. Especially decentralized technologies and real-world resource data.
Re: Post-GPT Computing
#366Earlier quoted context omitted.
Ironically administration overhead in many industries, particularly healthcare and education, has been growing over the past several decades despite increasing technology adoption. This is exactly the opposite of what you would expect given the increased efficiencies that come from adopting computer systems and automation. I see AI as a continuation of this trend and I don’t expect it to put people out of work, burea…
I’ve heard this stated as “jobs that don’t exist for economic reasons aren’t going to get automated for economic reasons”.
I think we overestimate the extent to which organizations are aligned and making cohesive decisions based on economics.
Re: Post-GPT Computing
#367LLMs will be end for portion of programmers for sure. We all know people at our companies who aren't in this for passion, but for a pay check. And while so far it has been fine to code just for a pay check their time is up. We soon won't be needing code monkeys who just produce OK code, we will need people who actually know what they are doing and are passionate about what they do.
We still need actual experts to vet the code LLMs produce and to choose the optimal solutions. This is what senior devs have done so far with junior and mid level devs always. There are people who can write code, but someone needs to review and approve what they have done.
Obviously LLMs will also eat into that space, but before we come up with AGI LLMs alone won't be able to completely replace humans in software.
Re: Post-GPT Computing
#368Earlier quoted context omitted.
> but notice how the EU is not any poorer than the USA. EU is significantly poorer than the US. Lots of different ways to measure it, but it’s a factor of roughly 1.5-2x in purchasing power parity.
It’s just accounting differences. The life in Europe is not any different. If the junior developers don’t make 100K and the visit to a doctor doesn’t cost 10K the overall economic activity appears to be lower but it’s not.
Just FYI for non-Americans...most Americans are insured and doctors visits don't cost 10k. Major surgeries might, but your insurance usually caps at a certain number in the 2-8k range for the whole year.
Not saying the system isn't bad, but 10k for a doctor's visit is kind of a stretch...
Re: Post-GPT Computing
#369I'm stoked by the idea that NL processing is suddenly becoming much more accessible and powerful. Old, boring static text documents are suddenly "coming alive". Imagine what this means not just for software engineering, but for all engineering, and even if not a single one of these documents is generated by a LLM.
Re: Post-GPT Computing
#370What happens to social mobility in the post GPT world. Given that knowledge work (not just software) has been one big option for people to climb the social ladder. If the AI can reasonably do all knowledge work in future, the amount of social climbing opportunities will drastically decrease. And no, UBI will not create more opportunities for social mobility. It seems like more and more people will have to compete wit…
Focussing on the climbing is the core problem I think. Why even do this? We collectlively should own the machines and guarantee just wealth distribution, so that its impossible for a few to have much more than than others. Then every increase in machine work is a great thing for everyone, instead of increasing competition between fewer and fewer people. Europe in itself is (together) the single biggest market/economy…
>We collectlively should own the machines and guarantee just wealth distribution, so that its impossible for a few to have much more than than others.
OK, put your money where your mouth is and send me 10% of your pay check.