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Post-GPT Computing

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Re: Post-GPT Computing

#351

Post by rimliu »

nopinsight wrote: post #132
throwawayai2 wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What happens when no junior devs are hired for 5 years? Who works their way up to replace the seniors who are leaving?

By the late 2020s, it's entirely possible that a "weaker" AGI will emerge. Consequently, there may be much less need for senior developers as well. However, that could be among the least of our concerns if we cannot reliably align AI with human interests by then. Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/date-weakly-general... Date of Artificial General Intelligence https://www…

   > By the late 2020s, it's entirely possible that a "weaker" AGI will emerge.
We will surely have self-driving cars by then? Right? Right?

Re: Post-GPT Computing

#352

Post by rimliu »

CuriouslyC wrote: post #72
msm_ wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If you are a software engineer, this will output your productivity ten fold on the upcoming years. Is this really true? I may be missing something (I probably am), but I didn't find much use for AI tools in my itsec/programming work. It's a nice tool to have, but I don't write that much boilerplate. I've tried to use it as a better Google, but it kept replying with made up nonsense (things I have problem with are u…

There is already software to basically run unit tests on LLM output and re-run the prompt until it passes. As the models get better and the tooling improves, a lot of programming will become specifying constraints on the program you want, and letting the AI explore the latent space until it finds a solution, which you then evaluate before providing more detailed constraints until it does everything you want.

Where do you get those unit tests though?

Re: Post-GPT Computing

#353

Post by golergka »

anonyfox wrote: post #160
crop_rotation wrote: post #103

What happens to social mobility in the post GPT world. Given that knowledge work (not just software) has been one big option for people to climb the social ladder. If the AI can reasonably do all knowledge work in future, the amount of social climbing opportunities will drastically decrease. And no, UBI will not create more opportunities for social mobility. It seems like more and more people will have to compete wit…

Focussing on the climbing is the core problem I think. Why even do this? We collectlively should own the machines and guarantee just wealth distribution, so that its impossible for a few to have much more than than others. Then every increase in machine work is a great thing for everyone, instead of increasing competition between fewer and fewer people. Europe in itself is (together) the single biggest market/economy…

You're describing a dystopia.

Re: Post-GPT Computing

#354

Post by jltsiren »

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #337
sharemywin wrote: post #303

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This video kind of scared me even more. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0dBq9sKTKTY

Holy fuck. I don't see how people can see stuff like that and say "oh, it's just a fancy Markov chain generator" or "it can't reason". Even if that stuff is nominally true, how can people not be totally blown away by this? Just a couple years ago I think people would have been amazed that it can have totally natural, grammatically correct conversations. Moreover, for nearly 3/4 of a century the scientific community h…

> Moreover, for nearly 3/4 of a century the scientific community has pretty much coalesced on only using the output to define intelligence (aka the Turing Test).

It's more like the scientific community has spent the last 50+ years criticizing the Turing Test. Passing as a human is a nice engineering goal, but there has been a lot of doubt of using input/output behavior as the only measure of intelligence. If you took a basic AI class before machine learning became popular, the chances are the class spent more time on the criticism than on the test itself.

Re: Post-GPT Computing

#355

Post by 8organicbits »

vehementi wrote: post #338
devjab wrote: post #265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One of the reasons I'm not blown away is that everything we've tasked it to do has resulted in rather terrible answers. A lot of them outright didn't work. When they did, the way GPT created our solutions were often in a way that wouldn't work well over time. Unfortunately you wouldn't necessarily know that unless you really know your tools. In many ways, this isn't too different from people performing brute-force pr…

> everything we've tasked it to do has resulted in rather terrible answers Maybe this is the chatGPT equivalent of "learning to google search properly". You got bad answers, but maybe someone more competent at chatGPT prompts and workflow would have gotten to a better solution more quickly, and we need to figure out what that means

Is there a primer on how to engineer prompts? I didn't like my results, tried engineering my prompts a bit, but it kept introducing different error. I had the domain knowledge to see them, but it felt like whack-a-mole.

Re: Post-GPT Computing

#356

Post by ilaksh »

dudeinhawaii wrote: post #143
Jevon23 wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really don’t want my productivity to increase. Worst case scenario is that it gets SO good at writing code that software engineering teams are severely downsized or are made obsolete altogether, and I find myself out of a job. I’m not expecting UBI to start falling out of the sky any time soon, especially while there are still manual labor jobs that robots can’t do. Alternative scenario is that individual developer…

I think the rapid rate of change in modern software libraries has left me underwhelmed with ChatGPT when it comes to new libraries, C++, or niche APIs (financial, etc). If you're writing react/python/angular or something popular it seems to do amazing things and spit out entire websites (per demos). Unfortunately, when I try to put together C++, Rust, or even C# using recent libraries like Blazor it chokes up. I full…

Your tool just needs examples of the more recent library calls.

With 32k tokens coming that's like 90kb total chars which 80kb could library or API docs.

Also it can easily be connected to things like pip or GitHub or Google to check documentation. And many tools are coming over the next few months that will put it in a debugging loop.

So maybe it's "safe" in the very near term but that issue of out of date training in no way prevents it from taking software engineering jobs.

I am working hard to build an AI system that can replace me before someone else does.

Re: Post-GPT Computing

#357

Post by 93po »

piyh wrote: post #73
Jevon23 wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really don’t want my productivity to increase. Worst case scenario is that it gets SO good at writing code that software engineering teams are severely downsized or are made obsolete altogether, and I find myself out of a job. I’m not expecting UBI to start falling out of the sky any time soon, especially while there are still manual labor jobs that robots can’t do. Alternative scenario is that individual developer…

Alternatively, there's more developer output, the unit price of an application gets cheaper, and this stimulates demand for more developers. CPUs getting cheaper and faster didn't decrease demand for CPUs.

This is the assumption that there is end-user demand for the software developers would write. I think we can assume that end users will be using traditional software less as ChatGPT functionality increases.

Re: Post-GPT Computing

#358

Post by mock-possum »

liampulles wrote: post #347

I think as rather tech savvy people, we forget the degree to which most of the world population really struggles to use computers well[1]. The potential of this chat based AI technology to expand the market is massive. [1] https://www.nngroup.com/articles/computer-skill-levels/

You do still need some kind of savvy to evaluate whether what the chat bot tells you is correct though.

Re: Post-GPT Computing

#359

Post by ilaksh »

nopinsight wrote: post #132
throwawayai2 wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What happens when no junior devs are hired for 5 years? Who works their way up to replace the seniors who are leaving?

By the late 2020s, it's entirely possible that a "weaker" AGI will emerge. Consequently, there may be much less need for senior developers as well. However, that could be among the least of our concerns if we cannot reliably align AI with human interests by then. Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/date-weakly-general... Date of Artificial General Intelligence https://www…

Has anyone tested GPT-4 on APPS? And if it can get 90% (which it probably can) does that mean people will admit it's an AGI? Or more likely they just keep moving the goalposts.

Re: Post-GPT Computing

#360

Post by mftb »

> Yesterday, I watched someone upload a video file to a chat app, ask a language model “Can you extract the first 5 s of the video?”, and then wait as the language model wrote a few lines of code and then actually executed that code, resulting in a downloadable video file.

What chat app? Is this gpt-4? I haven't seen anything executing the code that is generated. So is the above quote a hypothetical or what?

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