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Post-GPT Computing

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Re: Post-GPT Computing

#261

Post by redmaverick »

angarg12 wrote: post #158

Last week I used ChatGPT for the first time for a real world task at work. It was a self-contained lambda function to perform some admin tasks, so it seemed like an ideal fit. Although the experience was good, it's far from the end of programmers. This was my experience: * Although ChatGPT is pretty good at generating code, it kept making simple mistakes such as calling non-existing APIs or introducing bugs. Some of…

Upton Sinclair: "It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it."

This quote highlights the challenges of accepting new information or ideas when they might jeopardize one's livelihood or status quo.

Re: Post-GPT Computing

#262

Post by matesz »

groestl wrote: post #254
creeble wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But did you? Does it store and re-train on all of that input?

It will, rest assured. There is a reason that you have a history of chats in the free version, and it's not because it's so handy for you.

Wow how about people using paid api. Can OpenAI retrain on data provided there?

ps.

  ChatGPT: "You should only share information that you are comfortable with being stored or potentially used as training data."

Re: Post-GPT Computing

#263

Post by travisjungroth »

mrtksn wrote: post #151
crop_rotation wrote: post #103

What happens to social mobility in the post GPT world. Given that knowledge work (not just software) has been one big option for people to climb the social ladder. If the AI can reasonably do all knowledge work in future, the amount of social climbing opportunities will drastically decrease. And no, UBI will not create more opportunities for social mobility. It seems like more and more people will have to compete wit…

The panic is needless. If one hour of design work generates $100 income, then one might assume that MidJourney/Dall-E/StableDiffusion will generate trillions of dollars, but the world doesn't work like this. What will happen is that the design jobs will transform. As you might have noticed, the AI boom will decimate the code writing jobs as well, something that the EU is behind on. Europe missed the "tech" age, but n…

> but notice how the EU is not any poorer than the USA.

EU is significantly poorer than the US. Lots of different ways to measure it, but it’s a factor of roughly 1.5-2x in purchasing power parity.

Re: Post-GPT Computing

#264

Post by visarga »

ticviking wrote: post #194
crop_rotation wrote: post #103

What happens to social mobility in the post GPT world. Given that knowledge work (not just software) has been one big option for people to climb the social ladder. If the AI can reasonably do all knowledge work in future, the amount of social climbing opportunities will drastically decrease. And no, UBI will not create more opportunities for social mobility. It seems like more and more people will have to compete wit…

I’m not terribly worried. Though I assume my work will begin to resemble that of the Adeptus Mechanicus rather than proper engineering. The fact is that anyone who understands even at a basic level what the computer is actually doing and isn’t afraid to look at it at a low level can’t be replaced by an AI trained on stack overflow. It may be that I will spend more of my time on code review of LLM generated code, or m…

You should read the "Sparks of AGI" paper, especially the math and code sections. It's a GPT-4 evaluation conducted from outside OpenAI (authored by a MS team). It's an easy to read paper, mostly a collection of examples.

https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.12712

Re: Post-GPT Computing

#265

Post by devjab »

idopmstuff wrote: post #247
angarg12 wrote: post #158

Last week I used ChatGPT for the first time for a real world task at work. It was a self-contained lambda function to perform some admin tasks, so it seemed like an ideal fit. Although the experience was good, it's far from the end of programmers. This was my experience: * Although ChatGPT is pretty good at generating code, it kept making simple mistakes such as calling non-existing APIs or introducing bugs. Some of…

I'm a PM who is relatively technical, but I haven't written more than a few lines of code (stuff like minor modifications to my Shopify site) in a decade. I saw a bunch of people talking about how GPT helped them code stuff on Twitter, so I thought I'd give it a try. Right now I'm building a sort of simple, mock version of the type of software that integrates with my company's APIs. I've successfully managed to creat…

One of the reasons I'm not blown away is that everything we've tasked it to do has resulted in rather terrible answers. A lot of them outright didn't work. When they did, the way GPT created our solutions were often in a way that wouldn't work well over time. Unfortunately you wouldn't necessarily know that unless you really know your tools. In many ways, this isn't too different from people performing brute-force programming through their favorite search engine, but at least most people know that "Google programming" is sort of bad. I think we're going to be cleaning up the GPT messes for decades to come because it's very confidently incorrect and much more accessible as you point out.

I think we're going to see a lot of programmers who are going to trust GPT a little too much, and I think that's sort of scary. For the most part that is going to work out just fine. Often the quality of your programming isn't actually going to matter that much, because as long as it solves the business needs okish, then it's frankly great. That's not always the case, however, imagine someone using GPT to get your healthcare software wrong.

I'm still impressed with it in other areas. I think it'll do wonders in the world of office automation because it seems to have the ability to succeed at this much better than any previous "no-code" attempt where the logic would almost always end up requiring people who are basically programmers for it to work. I think GPT will help here, requiring less "superusers" for a department to move their data flows into automation. Especially in areas, where efficiency and stability aren't necessarily that important if the automation-tools mean you don't need three full time employees moving data from one system to another.

Re: Post-GPT Computing

#266

Post by seydor »

It is interesting how history repeats itself here: When google started it was just a list of links to the websites that contained your answer. As tech advanced, it increasingly started giving out the answers in google's pages.

OpenAI's plugins are equally temporary. Right now they will be generating actions through APIs, but GPT4 is probably already capable of performing the same actions on your browser. All it needs is a "control my browser" plugin that allows it to make that reservation on expedia, without expedia having any control in it. It will inevitably eat the world again

Re: Post-GPT Computing

#267

Post by beezlebroxxxxxx »

tomp wrote: post #192
anonyfox wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Focussing on the climbing is the core problem I think. Why even do this? We collectlively should own the machines and guarantee just wealth distribution, so that its impossible for a few to have much more than than others. Then every increase in machine work is a great thing for everyone, instead of increasing competition between fewer and fewer people. Europe in itself is (together) the single biggest market/economy…

[flagged]

Rawlsian justice is actually an enormously influential idea in political philosophy, arguably the most influential in the 20th century. It has 3 central principles that work together:

1. You enable equality of opportunity.

2. You allow the chance for "winners" and "losers".

3. You adopt the original position ("the veil of ignorance") because no one has foresight into their place of birth and the conditions therein (ie. no one can a priori help themselves), therefore you enact the "difference principle" which states that, insofar as you allow the chance for "winners" and "losers", governments enact policy in such a way that the majority of the benefits of those policies go to the "losers" over the "winners".

There has, of course, been enormous debate on the nature of Rawlsian justice, but it's not like "just" has to immediately equate with communism. Most modern western democracies are implicitly (and sometimes explicitly) modelled on Rawls' idea.

Re: Post-GPT Computing

#268

Post by fendy3002 »

I'm not doubting that someday AI will able to do better than junior devs, even to lower-level of senior devs. But I doubt they'll able to replace those of higher level seniors, at least not in tens of years.

Then I predict we'll get more business analysts than programmers, since managements will still need people to translate their needs to AI.

Re: Post-GPT Computing

#269

Post by sharemywin »

otabdeveloper4 wrote: post #199
bmitc wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You made me think: it feels like ChatGPT is just a less accurate StackOverflow answer generator. The culture of needing to use StackOverflow is not a good one, so I'm not sure why people are considering ChatGPT to be.

Yeah, it seems like a better search engine would be easier and more accurate to use in this case.

but it can usually answer your specific question. not loke close to your question.

Re: Post-GPT Computing

#270

Post by visarga »

fendy3002 wrote: post #268

I'm not doubting that someday AI will able to do better than junior devs, even to lower-level of senior devs. But I doubt they'll able to replace those of higher level seniors, at least not in tens of years. Then I predict we'll get more business analysts than programmers, since managements will still need people to translate their needs to AI.

> Then I predict we'll get more business analysts than programmers

Why would analysts be harder to replace than devs?

The question is - how will competition influence the job market? if everyone has AI, everyone has the same powers. So how do you differentiate yourself? You put more humans in the loop, like "human plugins". You need humans to extract the most from AI.

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