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Post-GPT Computing

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Re: Post-GPT Computing

#471

Post by dogcomplex »

gitfan86 wrote: post #98
nunez wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, and look at where YouTube is now. Millions of creators grinding for pennies while the lucky ones that got in early and made it rake in the profits. I think success in tech is going to become extremely pyramidal in the coming years. This is a huge shame, as this was one of the only fields out there where you could make a really good living without going to the "right" school for years and years and years.

Yes, but we are in a world of abundance. Most people carry around what would be in 1980 a 10 million dollar supercomputer in their pocket. 10 years from now we might have the equivalent of what today costs 10 million dollars today. Automated farming means what today we consider high end and expensive produce becomes almost free. Automated transportation means that food gets delivered to you for almost nothing. Imagin…

I hear ya bud, and I think you have the right take. This will ultimately vastly improve the lives of quite a lot more people than if it never happened. If we survive the coming years of turmoil and AIs or social unrest dont destroy the world, we are looking at post-scarcity future of so much plenty that the powers that be would have to do something particularly obviously evil and nefarious to keep that wealth from spreading to everyone. As the cost of mass production of basic needs, housing, etc etc all drastically lower, the excuse for why they're not being spread gets more and more ridiculous - even as people's individual power lowers as they become redundant. (Though reminder: the current chess champion is a human with AI assistance, not a pure AI. Humans copilots may still be semi-relevant a while longer!) Wealth Inequality might very-well still skyrocket, but overall this should still uplift everyone's quality of life and effectively allow for mass retirement - even in the third world, eventually.

IF we make it through...

Re: Post-GPT Computing

#472

Post by magpi3 »

dimitriye98 wrote: post #468
magpi3 wrote: post #458

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I watched the video. Chat GPT is impressive, but exactly as the person creating the video mentioned, the deeper you get into the project, the easier it is for Chat GPT to get confused. And Chat GPT has no idea it's confused. You have to point out each individual error, and the Chat GPT scans for it, makes a correction, and potentially introduces more errors. I don't see how you could use it with any confidence on a p…

The thing is, that's a capability which is likely to get added into AI harnesses very soon in the future. Look at the difference between Bing Chat and ChatGPT. Now consider when we have not a 32k context length model, but a 1m CL model, or even 1g CL, and that model can search the web for information, act on it, compile and test the code, diagnose the errors by again searching the web for information, etc. ChatGPT is…

I understand the expectation, but I am definitely in the "I'll see it when I believe it camp." Which is not to say that I am not impressed by what it can do now. I am. There is just no way I would trust it without first thoroughly examining the code it produced.

Re: Post-GPT Computing

#473

Post by shostack »

gmd63 wrote: post #456

Reducing coding to "deciding what to build" is not a pleasant endgame. In that endgame, anyone who can speak can command AI can do whatever they want it to do. Any kid with a louder mouth can outwish the wisest man on earth. That means shortsighted impulsive criminals can use it to learn how to steal. Shady politicians can use it to astroturf entire campaigns. Everyone knows the tropes but it bears repeating as we al…

Reminds me of a book called The Wizbiz. Or, what happens when a coder from modern times gets transported to a fantasy world where magic is controlled by a wizards guild, and decides to democratize it.

Re: Post-GPT Computing

#474

Post by coldtea »

kulikalov wrote: post #466
coldtea wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If you are a software engineer, this will output your productivity ten fold on the upcoming years. Now you don’t need to hire junior devs and can just build the product of your dreams with very limited capital. This 10x productivity absense of a 10x expansion of programming industry (which is very unlikely) translates to less developers in general, including senior ones. Even more so in an economy like this... > It…

The world have moved beyond zero sum economy a long time ago.

You'd be surprised...

Re: Post-GPT Computing

#475

Post by random_cynic »

boh wrote: post #155
crop_rotation wrote: post #103

What happens to social mobility in the post GPT world. Given that knowledge work (not just software) has been one big option for people to climb the social ladder. If the AI can reasonably do all knowledge work in future, the amount of social climbing opportunities will drastically decrease. And no, UBI will not create more opportunities for social mobility. It seems like more and more people will have to compete wit…

This is a question to ask when this actually becomes a reality. The AI taking jobs narrative is more of a marketing ploy to convince companies to buy AI services but the truth is, none of this stuff is anywhere near market ready. If a person is doing a job an AI bot can currently replace you've probably already replaced that person with cheap labor overseas. Regardless of whatever optimism is being channeled into the…

> it hasn't convinced many businesses.

Those businesses would not be around for very long, so who cares?

Re: Post-GPT Computing

#476

Post by mrtksn »

ipatec wrote: post #374
mrtksn wrote: post #272

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s just accounting differences. The life in Europe is not any different. If the junior developers don’t make 100K and the visit to a doctor doesn’t cost 10K the overall economic activity appears to be lower but it’s not.

is not accounting differences at all: - Europeans (and I am one) live in tiny housing even compared to people in NYC. - we have less cars (you can claim it's due to public transport but if public transport is not available most people would not afford cars regardless. - overall less leisure expenditures and less disposable income. That 10k doctor is a myth and certainly not something the 100k developer will have to p…

How many New York’s are there in the USA? Maybe NY is not the average American experience?

Re: Post-GPT Computing

#477

Post by mrtksn »

thequadehunter wrote: post #368
mrtksn wrote: post #272

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s just accounting differences. The life in Europe is not any different. If the junior developers don’t make 100K and the visit to a doctor doesn’t cost 10K the overall economic activity appears to be lower but it’s not.

Just FYI for non-Americans...most Americans are insured and doctors visits don't cost 10k. Major surgeries might, but your insurance usually caps at a certain number in the 2-8k range for the whole year. Not saying the system isn't bad, but 10k for a doctor's visit is kind of a stretch...

It doesn’t matter who pays for it, in the statistics it appears that an appendicitis generates much more economic activity in the USA than EU.

Healthcare spending per capita in the USA is 12K, the second most expensive is Germany and it’s 7K.

The life expectancy in Germany is 82 and in the USA is 77, so it’s not the case that Americans are getting much better one, explaining the higher costs.

Oh and that appendicitis? It kills much more Americans than Germans(0.08 vs 0.06 per 100K).

Re: Post-GPT Computing

#478

Post by coldtea »

jandrewrogers wrote: post #161
coldtea wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Yes, but we are in a world of abundance. Most people carry around what would be in 1980 a 10 million dollar supercomputer in their pocket. Most people also don't have $1000 for an emergency, live hand to mouth, and are dead scared of the cost and impact of a potential health issue. They are also overworked, underpaid, and with raising expenses, and sick of it, with depression levels skyrocketing. Having "a 10 milli…

> Most people also don't have $1000 for an emergency This has been debunked many times. The source is misleading to the point of being deceptive, it is pushing a narrative. Per the US government, the median household has $1000 per month leftover after all ordinary expenses. A very detailed breakdown of this for each income decile is available from the BLS. You can’t square “most Americans can’t afford a $1000 emergen…

It's the debunkings that are pushing a narrative (and reading the BLS numbers in whatever way fits it).

And it would be news to million struggling to pay the bills and rent (and not because they buy expensive lattes or new iPhones) that then can "afford to light $1000 every month without impacting their standard of living".

Especially for people whose standard of living is already working their ass off, perhaps in two jobs, and still scrapping to make it and not even thinking of affording to sent their kids to school, or can't even dream of ever being able to survive a need to stay off work for a month for medical reasons...

Re: Post-GPT Computing

#479

Post by anonyfox »

meghan_rain wrote: post #445
anonyfox wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

it begins with everyone has enough to begin with, and whatever is importent is available as public services. there are different flavors to do this, the currently best implementation is to have very high&progressive taxes that fund a strong public sector, that in turn makes people feel safe and allows them to pursue higher education (doctors, teachers, ...) that again are needed for all this. Sure you can work to hav…

> but not 100x more than your neighbor, nobody is worth that. Hard disagree. Have you seen the average human, and compare him to somebody like John Carmak, Andrej Karpathy, etc. They create value at least 100x as big as the avg person

And without a society around them to support them, they would be unknown and busy trying to survive.

Even if many people might not be able to do some genius things, they do other stuff that is ultimately mandatory for the geniuses.

So yes, they might produce massively more value, but are still not worth that much more, since they wouldn’t be able to thrive without the others to begin with.

Re: Post-GPT Computing

#480

Post by splatzone »

magpi3 wrote: post #458
hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #337

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Holy fuck. I don't see how people can see stuff like that and say "oh, it's just a fancy Markov chain generator" or "it can't reason". Even if that stuff is nominally true, how can people not be totally blown away by this? Just a couple years ago I think people would have been amazed that it can have totally natural, grammatically correct conversations. Moreover, for nearly 3/4 of a century the scientific community h…

I watched the video. Chat GPT is impressive, but exactly as the person creating the video mentioned, the deeper you get into the project, the easier it is for Chat GPT to get confused. And Chat GPT has no idea it's confused. You have to point out each individual error, and the Chat GPT scans for it, makes a correction, and potentially introduces more errors. I don't see how you could use it with any confidence on a p…

Is it not possible to write a script which repeatedly attempts to run the code, then sends the errors back to GPT to be fixed? Then it changes the code based on GPT’s requests and runs it again, refining it until some test condition is met
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