I think your parent is on to something: it won't be the programmers trusting GPT a little too much, it will be the PMs, and there won't be a programmer :-)
I see an Idiocracy inspired future for programming. People claim that AI can write code so they start firing programmers. Universities stop software engineering programs as there is no one taking the courses. People stop writing blogs or stackoverflow. Software engineers either move to other fields or start living offgrid. No new innovation or new line of code written by human. Meanwhile, software quality get worse b…
The biggest difference between a beginner and a veteran is systematic problem solving. Software development has already been reduced to bashing libraries together like rocks... It still is very effective, but frustrating to the end user. If software development gets reduced to brute forcing a prompt until it starts to look like it's working, then we might as well call it a day and promote the users to eternal QA.
It's already becoming a strain to review ChatGPT code committed by others, who try to save time by using it instead of thinking for a moment and then coming up with a proper solution to a problem.
What happens to social mobility in the post GPT world. Given that knowledge work (not just software) has been one big option for people to climb the social ladder. If the AI can reasonably do all knowledge work in future, the amount of social climbing opportunities will drastically decrease. And no, UBI will not create more opportunities for social mobility. It seems like more and more people will have to compete wit…
I mean when enough people are unemployed they will just vote to socialize the society. Also, massive deflation will reset the global economy. The social ladder as you call it will flatten pretty hard. At that point we nationalize and ubi with work being some kind of minimum amount a year to qualify for ubi. Work hours per year will drop alot. I think society will transform for the better where we start developing towards a post scarcity deflationary future rather than the inflationary rat race we have now.
What happens to social mobility in the post GPT world. Given that knowledge work (not just software) has been one big option for people to climb the social ladder. If the AI can reasonably do all knowledge work in future, the amount of social climbing opportunities will drastically decrease. And no, UBI will not create more opportunities for social mobility. It seems like more and more people will have to compete wit…
Social mobility is already a joke. Knowledge workers have enjoyed prosperity for decades, software folks in particular, all AI does is even the playing field a bit more.
I don’t get the overall doom and gloom towards LLMs on the software field. If you are a software engineer, this will output your productivity ten fold on the upcoming years. Now you don’t need to hire junior devs and can just build the product of your dreams with very limited capital. In my opinion this technology will be as democratising as the YouTube’s early days. Instead of worrying, learn to work with it. It wil…
They got to this level of progress with maybe a million users input and feed back. Now they will have 1000s of plugins feeding them with high quality structured data and 100s of millions of users feeding it. They are also going multi modal and have billions in capital to expand the size and scale of the network. The probability that this is peak gpt seems very unlikely. I expect they will have a post grad level of intelligence gpt across the board in less than 5 years.
No white collar job will be valued the same since GPT will basically be doing most of the work and we will maybe review it and steer it. We will just keep feeding it and it will know everything at the cutting edge of all fields.
What happens to social mobility in the post GPT world. Given that knowledge work (not just software) has been one big option for people to climb the social ladder. If the AI can reasonably do all knowledge work in future, the amount of social climbing opportunities will drastically decrease. And no, UBI will not create more opportunities for social mobility. It seems like more and more people will have to compete wit…
What you're describing requires AI to make conjectures, hypothesize, design experiments, run them, and assess their results.
I don’t get the overall doom and gloom towards LLMs on the software field. If you are a software engineer, this will output your productivity ten fold on the upcoming years. Now you don’t need to hire junior devs and can just build the product of your dreams with very limited capital. In my opinion this technology will be as democratising as the YouTube’s early days. Instead of worrying, learn to work with it. It wil…
> If you are a software engineer, this will output your productivity ten fold on the upcoming years. Now you don’t need to hire junior devs and can just build the product of your dreams with very limited capital. This 10x productivity absense of a 10x expansion of programming industry (which is very unlikely) translates to less developers in general, including senior ones. Even more so in an economy like this... > It…
The world have moved beyond zero sum economy a long time ago.
Focussing on the climbing is the core problem I think. Why even do this? We collectlively should own the machines and guarantee just wealth distribution, so that its impossible for a few to have much more than than others. Then every increase in machine work is a great thing for everyone, instead of increasing competition between fewer and fewer people. Europe in itself is (together) the single biggest market/economy…
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Someone swallowed the propaganda. They'll probably get defensive about it too and try to argue for their manufacturered belief.
Holy fuck. I don't see how people can see stuff like that and say "oh, it's just a fancy Markov chain generator" or "it can't reason". Even if that stuff is nominally true, how can people not be totally blown away by this? Just a couple years ago I think people would have been amazed that it can have totally natural, grammatically correct conversations. Moreover, for nearly 3/4 of a century the scientific community h…
I watched the video. Chat GPT is impressive, but exactly as the person creating the video mentioned, the deeper you get into the project, the easier it is for Chat GPT to get confused. And Chat GPT has no idea it's confused. You have to point out each individual error, and the Chat GPT scans for it, makes a correction, and potentially introduces more errors. I don't see how you could use it with any confidence on a p…
The thing is, that's a capability which is likely to get added into AI harnesses very soon in the future. Look at the difference between Bing Chat and ChatGPT. Now consider when we have not a 32k context length model, but a 1m CL model, or even 1g CL, and that model can search the web for information, act on it, compile and test the code, diagnose the errors by again searching the web for information, etc. ChatGPT is the simplest possible use of the model, with nothing but user input -> model output. The thing is, tests have already been done with having these models act as agents, and they perform exceedingly well when appropriately instructed. It's not about right now. It's about 1 year from now, or maybe even merely 6 months from now.
ChatGPT is an amplifier of our skills. As Ben Thompson in a recent episode of the Podcast dithering said, something along the line that differentiable people will become more prominent. The existential threats are coming to current low-code/no code companies (some of them will thrive after integrating with ChatGPT or the like, though). They are also coming to entry-level engineers because there will be less demand of their time. Unfortunately, ChatGP will not be an existential threat to those who are good at only drawing boxes. Well, maybe asserting influence by drawing boxes is a rare skill.
Why don't more people see this capability as an accelerator and/or amplifier? To borrow from the book "Smarter Than You Think" by Clive Thompson, it can turn us into "centaurs", fusing the minds of humans with the computing power of AI.
Doesn't this show that we can now use this technology to generate and execute code for modest problems that have already been solved, while we can spend more time on even more complex problems?