781–790 of 809 posts
I've seen other construction related businesses try to go direct and it is extremely difficult. By going direct to the homeowner you are targeting the venn diagram union of "people who are willing & able to do the work themselves" and "people who will pay more" How are you going to build your service network? You say you will "connect them with a contractor to do the actual install." But contractors make their money…
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I've seen other construction related businesses try to go direct and it is extremely difficult. By going direct to the homeowner you are targeting the venn diagram union of "people who are willing & able to do the work themselves" and "people who will pay more" How are you going to build your service network? You say you will "connect them with a contractor to do the actual install." But contractors make their money…
> By going direct to the homeowner you are targeting the venn diagram union of "people who are willing & able to do the work themselves" This is meant to be installed by a professional contractor, not the homeowner. > How are you going to build your service network? Compensate the contractors fairly and act as lead gen. > Who are the decision makers in your target market exactly? Homeowners. Not targeting multiunit r…
> Compensate the contractors fairly and act as lead gen
This will be tough. At least in my geography every decent contractor is busy all the time. Additionally, you'll need to provide enough business to your partners that it's worth the time to deal with. I don't know if that's 1/x install per week or enough to basically have a whole dedicated person. I've tried to outsource something similar (equipment start-up, not install), but my volume was only ~20/year and my guy eventually said it wasn't worth the hassle unless the price was outrageous.
I see a bunch of people dogpiling. I'm skeptical of the distribution approach, but there is space for more heat pump players. Good luck. See you at AHR in Chicago
Heat control with a touch screen? Never.
What's your preferred thermostat?
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I get where you're coming from. There's a lot of scope to this though, and not a lot of technical risk. I think in this case it makes sense to sell units, and also generate feedback about the product as early as possible. We're not selling fusion or self driving cars.
In this particular case, and given your background, I am not worried about your ability to build it. Yes, a bit easier than fusion energy :) I am wondering, though... Why don't you make a prototype, and attach a webcam in front of it, with a few sensors, etc?
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Wow, this says everything I need to know about you. You are arguing in incredibly bad faith. Germany? What the natural gas thing? They heavily relied on it through building up gas heating and then they had to embargo Russia due to their invasion of Ukraine. You can't replace all German homes with heat pumps overnight, and they hadn't even started until the war started. Texas? They refuse to winterize their energy gri…
Didn’t mean to trigger you. Sorry. The point I’m making is that no matter how cheap solar and wind are, with electric cars increasing in popularity, usage is getting more and more lopsided. The network just cannot deal with peak loads, especially in places with harsh winters. Solar and wind are pretty useless at night or when there’s no wind, which is a lot of the time. And thanks for the detailed answer!
It can if it gets upgraded. Which is happening.
"Solar and wind are pretty useless at night or when there’s no wind"
Did you forget about the batteries already? And are you forgetting that power grids operate on a continental level? Your power doesn't have to come from next door.
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> your hand wringing over heat-pump induced blackouts seems misplaced. I would very much appreciate it if we could keep to a mutually-respectful conversation rather than resorting to insults. We only learn if we respect each other's positions. I have no problem being wrong. Show me how and will forever be grateful. I have no problem with anyone challenging anything I say. Thanks for questioning my claim. I can't get…
There's a major study out of Princeton from a year or two ago that fully covers what is needed for full electrification with only renewables, and with mostly renewables. It covers all this much better than I could, especially here on HN: https://netzeroamerica.princeton.edu/the-report My take on that report is "yep, this would/will be a major effort, as large as anything we've ever done, but not much more than an ord…
A prime example of this is the "high speed" train here in California. They said the bill was ten billion. We are in for over a hundred billion. What had been built isn't finished and it isn't even high speed (I think it tops out at around 50 mph). The whole thing is a disgusting example of just how dysfunctional we have become as a nation.
And so, I look at the idea of having to, say, double, our power generation and distribution infrastructure and the only equation that balances out in my head says: Good luck. It will never happen.
I hope I am wrong. A sign of this would be for these people (politicians) to finally get their heads out of their behinds, work together and put forth a solid 25 year plan to materially expand our power generation and distribution. A plan that is executable, not some hand-wavy thing that will never happen.
Anyhow, I don't want to be a pessimist, yet, I can't see any evidence of anything that might lead me to believe this nation is capable of the great things we accomplished in the past. The Hoover Damn could not be built today. We could say that about almost every large scale project going back a century or more. Can you imagine proposing to build the Panama Canal today? Right.
In this context, we are waving our hands and talking about 300 million electric cars and 100 million all-electric homes. Part of me things "C'mon. Get serious".
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There's a major study out of Princeton from a year or two ago that fully covers what is needed for full electrification with only renewables, and with mostly renewables. It covers all this much better than I could, especially here on HN: https://netzeroamerica.princeton.edu/the-report My take on that report is "yep, this would/will be a major effort, as large as anything we've ever done, but not much more than an ord…
Yeah, from my perspective, the fact that it is large isn't the problem. The issues is that we can't seem to get anything done. Politicians --of all denominations-- stopped working for us and towards solid long term objectives for the benefit of society a long time ago, decades. Their focus is firmly aimed at winning elections and opposing the other side. We, the people, well, we don't really matter, all they want is…
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/20/opinion/ezra-klein-podcas...
The title is a bit click-baity, so ignore that.
My parents neighbors got a heat pump installed at about that same price so I think it makes sense. Even at 50% the cost of a natural gas boiler it would be at least a decade before it was paid off which I'm not sure how long these things last.
Also for the founder there are a lot of companies in Europe selling this type of thing at a similar price.
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Yeah, from my perspective, the fact that it is large isn't the problem. The issues is that we can't seem to get anything done. Politicians --of all denominations-- stopped working for us and towards solid long term objectives for the benefit of society a long time ago, decades. Their focus is firmly aimed at winning elections and opposing the other side. We, the people, well, we don't really matter, all they want is…
I would recommend listening to the Ezra Klein show interview with one of the main authors of the NetZero Princeton report. It is not recklessly optimistic, but I was surprised to finish it and have a sense "hell, maybe we might actually pull this off". https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/20/opinion/ezra-klein-podcas... The title is a bit click-baity, so ignore that.