Myocarditis after Covid vaccination: Research on possible long-term risks begins • Hacker News Board

Re: Myocarditis after Covid vaccination: Research on possible long-term risks begins

#691

Post by alvah » Thu, Nov 17, 2022, 3:17 AM UTC

edmundsauto wrote: post #687

alvah wrote: post #671

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“Good process, bad outcome.” And that is where I vehemently disagree. Bad process, bad outcome. Many people lied to make the information appear as you said. The incentives they had to lie should have a lot more scrutiny, rather than being shrugged off, and many of these people should be in jail.

How did you differentiate lies from inherent complexities in public health communication in a novel situation?

I don't claim any special ability to differentiate lies from inherent complexities in public health communication in a novel situation. However, the claim in early 2021 that the vaccines were both safe and effective, before enough time had elapsed for either to be known, was a bit of a red flag. I don't think you needed much expertise in anything to have reached this conclusion.

I believed at the time (and still believe) the risk/reward ratio still favoured offering the vaccines to at-risk groups. Making it mandatory or de-facto mandatory for all was a colossal clusterfuck. It worked out well for big pharma though, but at what long-term cost?

Re: Myocarditis after Covid vaccination: Research on possible long-term risks begins

#692

Post by edmundsauto » Thu, Nov 17, 2022, 4:14 AM UTC

alvah wrote: post #691

edmundsauto wrote: post #687

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How did you differentiate lies from inherent complexities in public health communication in a novel situation?

I don't claim any special ability to differentiate lies from inherent complexities in public health communication in a novel situation. However, the claim in early 2021 that the vaccines were both safe and effective, before enough time had elapsed for either to be known, was a bit of a red flag. I don't think you needed much expertise in anything to have reached this conclusion. I believed at the time (and still beli…

Isn't the road to hell paved with good intentions? Based on what I know about human nature, especially those who self-select into public health, it seems just as plausible they were overly optimistic. That's not a lie, which requires concrete knowledge that the opposite is true.

I didn't mean to suggest you had any special ability. I was just wondering how you reached that conclusion. Internet text boards are bad at tone, I apologize if it sounded attacking. But I think it's a wide gap between officials lied and someone had a different interpretation and did not exhibit as much caution as I prefer in my p.h. officials.

I am certain people lied about covid. I'm not certain that was the ph officials.

Re: Myocarditis after Covid vaccination: Research on possible long-term risks begins

#693

Post by ls15 » Thu, Nov 17, 2022, 7:48 PM UTC

xracy wrote: post #683

ls15 wrote: post #681

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> you can't criticize a decision made with limited information with perfect information, and pretend like you would've seen the perfect information at the time. I can absolutely criticize handwavy low knowledge / high impact decisions afterwards, because that's what they were and that was clear to many at that time already. Consensus wasn't reached based on knowledge, but based on power. Luckily I came to that conclu…

ah, I should've known I was having this discussion with someone who is clairvoyant

It does not take a very high quality crystal ball to see that others are deploying their crystal balls

Re: Myocarditis after Covid vaccination: Research on possible long-term risks begins

#694

Post by speakfreely » Thu, Nov 17, 2022, 7:55 PM UTC

ceejayoz wrote: post #660

ars wrote: post #655

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do people not remember how insurance was like before the ACA? You actually could get less expensive insurance that actually covered things. Not this junk insurance you're linking to me, which only exists because of the ACA. These days all coverage is emergency only coverage, because of the insanely high deductibles. Except without the benefits of lower premiums. I am aware that some things improved, but not for the a…

> Do people not remember how insurance was like before the ACA? I do. My wife and I went bankrupt with it, via $90k in copays and coinsurance. We had good insurance, but back then insurance could have uncapped costs of this kind. As a bonus, they could a) set a maximum annual and lifetime amount they'd pay and b) decline to renew our coverage, leaving only high-risk pools (4-5x as expensive for premiums) available. I…

> I have a zero-deductible ACA plan. There are plenty of them.

How much does that cost? And which state?

Re: Myocarditis after Covid vaccination: Research on possible long-term risks begins

#695

Post by TMWNN » Fri, Nov 18, 2022, 5:43 AM UTC

edmundsauto wrote: post #663

nradov wrote: post #589

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Access to ventilators or lack thereof has no significant impact on death rates. Very few patients are put on ventilators now since those are considered salvage therapy only used when all else has failed. The initial focus on ventilators early in the pandemic was misguided and not based on any reliable evidence.

> The initial focus on ventilators early in the pandemic was misguided and not based on any reliable evidence. Was there reliable evidence to the contrary during the initial infection window (2020)? (IE, anything showing that vents don't help)

Yes. https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/08/doctors-say-ventilators-...> was completely vindicated in retrospect.

Re: Myocarditis after Covid vaccination: Research on possible long-term risks begins

#696

Post by TMWNN » Fri, Nov 18, 2022, 6:29 AM UTC

scop wrote: post #326

phtrivier wrote: post #311

Just so we now for next time: what is the proper way to express concerns about _this_ kind of things with enough nuance and moderation so as not to be automatically considered an anti-scientist tin foil hat ? What is the scientifically acceptable way to phrase "I'm not concerned about BigPharma planting 5G chips in my future children's eyeballs to turn them into communist ; but I'm very concerned about blind spots du…

Eric Weinstein had a great segment on his Portal podcast about this very thing. I can't recall the interview (maybe with Balaji?), but if it comes to me I'll comment it. The gist was that he was talking about Covid and he observed that the guest had to spend an inordinate amount of time saying what he was not saying, to the point of being absurd. He had to constantly preface his comments with a long series of stateme…

>"Now I'm not saying X, or Y, and I'm definitely not a P, and I don't agree with everything Z said but..." How can you have a conversation if so much time is spent not saying things?

Further, it intellectually constricts the speaker, both in thought and speech. It's running a race with lead weights and straitjacket.

For a smaller, but longer-lasting example, think of how many times in the past six years you heard someone preface a statement with "I hate Trump, but". Those who lived under Communism and Nazism experienced the same thing: Anything that might be perceived by another as being against approved thought in any way had to uttered in a way that would plausibly insulate the speaker from undesirable consequences. Now, think of how long-term adherence to such behavior crabs the intellect and soul.

Re: Myocarditis after Covid vaccination: Research on possible long-term risks begins

#697

Post by GuB-42 » Fri, Nov 18, 2022, 5:56 PM UTC

hitpointdrew wrote: post #4

Seems like this should have been a requirement before any emergency use authorization, and certainly before any mandates. The fact that this research is just now being done ought to be enough to immediately revoke the FDA emergency use authorizations and pull the product from the shelves. The covid vaccines have been a complete and utter disaster at every level. The erosion of trust in the institutions that are suppo…

I think most people misunderstand the point of emergency use.

It was an emergency.

At the time the vaccine got authorized, we were in a middle of a pandemic, millions of people with no immunity were getting sick, and we couldn't stop the spread even with heavy restrictions. It was clear that we will all have some immunity eventually. The point of the emergency use of vaccine was to give people immunity in a way that wasn't as bad at getting sick. Wait too much, and the vaccine would have been mostly useless. It was a game of how much uncertainty we allow vs how much more deaths if we do nothing. And I think the (fairly conservative) bet saved millions, maybe we could have saved a bit more if we actually vaccinated people before the end of phase 3.

We are now in the end game, and the rules have changed. We are now almost all immunized in one way or another, the virus is now optimized for immune escape instead of raw speed, thankfully making it less deadly in the process. Because of that, the way we approach vaccination needs to change too. We can't compare today's situation with the beginning of 2021.

Re: Myocarditis after Covid vaccination: Research on possible long-term risks begins

#698

Post by trog » Sun, Nov 20, 2022, 12:39 AM UTC

exodust wrote: post #689

trog wrote: post #679

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'll cheer lead vaccines from a team sport position all day long; in this case I'm doing so from that perspective and from the perspective that the vaccine has shown to have a significant (order of magnitude) impact on death (etc, etc). I don't think it's totally unfair to call it 'underwhelming' though. We are so used to vaccines being wildly successful at stamping out a bunch of diseases that when something as viru…

All you've done is double-down on "lockdowns are worth it", and assigned slurs for those who called them draconian. The pursuit of being a responsible citizen can cause people to find themselves in the red zone. Pushed by coercive campaigns designed to make you not only think and act a certain way, but also spread the message and attack those who disagree. It's fascinating stuff. "Dipshit libertarians"? Wow. I do won…

> The increased deaths in Australia this year were NOT expected.

This is so wrong I don't even know where to begin

Re: Myocarditis after Covid vaccination: Research on possible long-term risks begins

#699

Post by coolhand2120 » Sun, Nov 20, 2022, 5:28 AM UTC

edmundsauto wrote: post #692

alvah wrote: post #691

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't claim any special ability to differentiate lies from inherent complexities in public health communication in a novel situation. However, the claim in early 2021 that the vaccines were both safe and effective, before enough time had elapsed for either to be known, was a bit of a red flag. I don't think you needed much expertise in anything to have reached this conclusion. I believed at the time (and still beli…

Isn't the road to hell paved with good intentions? Based on what I know about human nature, especially those who self-select into public health, it seems just as plausible they were overly optimistic. That's not a lie, which requires concrete knowledge that the opposite is true. I didn't mean to suggest you had any special ability. I was just wondering how you reached that conclusion. Internet text boards are bad at…

No post body was provided.

Re: Myocarditis after Covid vaccination: Research on possible long-term risks begins

#700

Post by ls15 » Sun, Nov 20, 2022, 2:09 PM UTC

garfieldnate wrote: post #684

sva_ wrote: post #642

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Two vaccinations + confirmed recovery is enough afaik.

I think quite a few people caught omicron and didn't bother getting it confirmed. You have to go out into a public space, where you're presumably possibly spreading it, and get the more advanced test, even after you've already done the regular Bürgertest. Additionally, during the omicron wave the exemption from restrictions one would get for a confirmed case only lasted for a number of months, making it not worth it…

> Additionally, during the omicron wave the exemption from restrictions one would get for a confirmed case only lasted for a number of months, making it not worth it for many people.

I was waiting in the cold with covid symptoms for over an hour in the line, just to be told that I was not eligible for the Bürgertest, even though my partner was confirmed PCR-positive, but rapid tests did not detect my and my partner's covid.

It was already known at that time that rapid tests had poor detection rates for omicron.

I then found a doctor who was willing to do the test, which turned out to be positive. I only went through this instead of just recovering at home, because I really wanted to have the certificate, because I suspected already that it would later serve as certificate for "full immunization", because that's what science already suggested at that point.

The STIKO at that time clearly advised against getting booster shots within three months after infection, but without certificates there was no way to prove prior infection and people were cut off from 2G, even though they were technically entitled to the exemptions. The BMG and RKI basically bullied people into taking boosters. Enhanced myocarditis risk was known too already at that point. The BMG and RKI constantly changed the rules in hand-wavy last-minute decisions to make it extra confusing for everyone.