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Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

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Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#71

Post by svrourke »

Kamala will take over the presidency when Biden's colonoscopy comes back with colon cancer.

Graphics cards will return to msrp prices.

Government action to fix container pileup issues (incentives for hiring more workers, penalties for containers in stacks for longer than x weeks) (it's my understanding this a manufactured crisis to increase profits)

James Webb will observe proof of alien life nearby

Donbas will become part of Russia

North Korea will start modernizing and trying to rehab their image

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#72

Post by outside1234 »

throwaway4good wrote: post #50

Huawei/HiSilicon will start producing highend chips again, fabbed outside the reach of US sanctions. Probably first the chips sitting inside their 5G base stations. This will mark a turning point in the US-China tech war.

It doesn't matter where they are fab'ed. There is so much pressure worldwide to not add them to communications infrastructure by those that depend on US defense (basically everyone outside of Russia an China) that, if anything, I think this situation gets worse for these two.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#73

Post by l33tbro »

bshipp wrote: post #64
l33tbro wrote: post #20

I think the fake 'inflation' we are seeing (which is really supply-side shock) will vanish, and reveal that we are in a huge deflationary environment. Remote work is here to stay. Rents go up as over-leveraged landlords will have to pay back rising interest rates (QE is tapering already now). Climate issues, real and not so real, will be used to achieve the control agenda of established power in the same way the pand…

I'd argue that rents will fall as large volumes of "investment" housing starts to hit the market. The end of a decade (almost 2, actually) of quantitative easing and and resulting increase in interest rates is the death knell for asset value-derived investment. This includes any stock where the value is not correlated with revenue.

I purposely avoided the asset bubble collapse because it's all so volatile and overhwelming right now. But you're right - and it would quite likley crater rents.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#74

Post by hereforphone »

- Donald Knuth will die

- Joe Biden will become unable to maintain office (due to age / health related issues) and his VP will become president; many will theorize this was the plan all along

- People will settle down about COVID regardless of what happens. There will be more backlash as we continue to learn more about the vaccines (and require boosters at some currently undetermined interval)

- $SPY will lose 100+ points but regain that. Prices of goods and services will continue to spiral out of control

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#75

Post by uptownfunk »

kaycebasques wrote: post #46

I would love for this to become a regular thing on HN. And it would be even more wonderful if we had a standard template where we expressed our predictions in probabilities.

and some type of score keeping for who gets things right over time.. to know who are the bellwethers

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#76

Post by quickthrower2 »

outside1234 wrote: post #67
quickthrower2 wrote: post #58

Bitcoin bull due to inflation worries and bitcoin lack of intrinsic value means the only metric is FOMO, so if it goes up it goes up more. To stabilise a high price long term you’d need additional countries adopting it, and they need to fix the climate impact. Eventually Bitcoin will be a lacklustre investment like gold. Essentially cash-like but deflationary at heart. That’s if it succeeds. Or it will implode to not…

My prediction is that the FOMO thing will work the other way and there will be a stampede out of bitcoin in a 1930s style crash.

Yes the FOMO does go both ways. Without a network problem it will still hold some value but could be less than 1% of current market traded price in that scenario but unlikely zero.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#77

Post by pjc50 »

uejfiweun wrote: post #3

- COVID will continue to be a thing. Some new variant will come along and force everyone to lock down again. - The fed will have no choice but to keep interest rates low. This means we will have another year of rapidly rising asset prices. - Supply chain issues will get worse throughout 2022, massively fueled by US-China tensions and COVID related shifts in demand. Major inflation like we haven't seen since the 1970s…

> Major inflation like we haven't seen since the 1970s

I'm quite happy to bet that inflation over the next year will be no more than 10%. I'd even take 5% at good odds. If it does hit that, it will do incredible things for my fixed-rate mortgage as well as my portfolio. No, I do not have significant "cash" savings.

Otherwise I agree with your predictions. There may well be a crypto boom or two to go with the busts.

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