Social media-reality and outside-your-window reality will finally diverge so much people will begin to notice.
Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?
61–70 of 273 posts
Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?
#62- COVID will continue to be a thing. Some new variant will come along and force everyone to lock down again. - The fed will have no choice but to keep interest rates low. This means we will have another year of rapidly rising asset prices. - Supply chain issues will get worse throughout 2022, massively fueled by US-China tensions and COVID related shifts in demand. Major inflation like we haven't seen since the 1970s…
I think your last prediction is right, but targeting the wrong generation. The oldest Gen Z's are 25 which isn't old enough to be differentiated from the normal spending habits of broke young adults. It's the younger half of Millennials that are the ones to worry about because this would be the time where it's expected they would start having kids and buying houses and such but culturally they've got way more in common with Gen Z nihilistic anger than they do with Gen X or Boomers.
Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?
#63Earlier quoted context omitted.
>- Supply chain issues will get worse throughout 2022, massively fueled by US-China tensions and COVID related shifts in demand. Major inflation like we haven't seen since the 1970s. Due to this, GOP is probably going to retake the house largely because people won't realize that the inflation has little to do with Democrats policies but is entirely because of COVID fucking everything.
... which facilitates and end of free and fair elections in the US
Elections in the US have never been entirely free or fair.
Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?
#64I think the fake 'inflation' we are seeing (which is really supply-side shock) will vanish, and reveal that we are in a huge deflationary environment. Remote work is here to stay. Rents go up as over-leveraged landlords will have to pay back rising interest rates (QE is tapering already now). Climate issues, real and not so real, will be used to achieve the control agenda of established power in the same way the pand…
I'd argue that rents will fall as large volumes of "investment" housing starts to hit the market. The end of a decade (almost 2, actually) of quantitative easing and and resulting increase in interest rates is the death knell for asset value-derived investment. This includes any stock where the value is not correlated with revenue.
Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?
#65Earlier quoted context omitted.
*1 & 2 trillion over ten years. The actual addition to the federal budget isn’t that dramatic.
Do you have any idea how much money a trillion dollars is? If you paid $1 per second, it would take you: 12 days to spend $1 million 32 years to spend $1 billion 32,000 years to spend $1 trillion Imagine spending $1 every second for 32,000 years. It's ridiculous! Yet we throw that number around like it "isn't that dramatic". We will never be able to pay off that borrowed money! And it will work until it doesn't. And…
US GDP is over 23 trillion dollars on an annualized basis, what you’re saying lacks any sense of proportion. Even assuming no growth, 3 trillion dollars represents 1.3% of gdp over the same period.
If you just want to throw large numbers around, why not just convert everything into cents? Imagine spending 1 cent per second for 3.2 million years! That’s a long time.
Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?
#66On Good Judgment Open there is a question about where the Fed Funds Rate will be in January 2022. I have a blog post [1] tracking my forecast of this event. Currently I have the odds at:
* 0% chance the rate will be lower
* 98% chance the rate will be the same
* 2% chance the rate will be higher
[1] https://kayce.basqu.es/bets/january-2022-fed-funds-rate/
Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?
#67Bitcoin bull due to inflation worries and bitcoin lack of intrinsic value means the only metric is FOMO, so if it goes up it goes up more. To stabilise a high price long term you’d need additional countries adopting it, and they need to fix the climate impact. Eventually Bitcoin will be a lacklustre investment like gold. Essentially cash-like but deflationary at heart. That’s if it succeeds. Or it will implode to not…
My prediction is that the FOMO thing will work the other way and there will be a stampede out of bitcoin in a 1930s style crash.
Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?
#68- COVID will continue to be a thing. Some new variant will come along and force everyone to lock down again. - The fed will have no choice but to keep interest rates low. This means we will have another year of rapidly rising asset prices. - Supply chain issues will get worse throughout 2022, massively fueled by US-China tensions and COVID related shifts in demand. Major inflation like we haven't seen since the 1970s…
If the governments start locking down again Conservative states will see house prices rise.
.. and death rates rise.
Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?
#69previously (compiled by csomar here[0]):
[0]2021: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25594068
2020: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21802596
2019: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18753859
2018: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16007988
2016: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10809767
2015: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8822723
2014: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6994370
2012: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3395201
2011: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1970023
2010: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025681
And predictions for the decade:
Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?
#70My heuristic is to extend pre-2022 trends outward: Higher stock market even though everyone keeps calling it a bubble More inflation, but not as much gain in the CPI as 2021 Strong GDP growth, same for corporate profits Big tech gets bigger; Facebook, Tesla , Amazon, Google Microsoft stock keep going up. No anti-trust action against big tech companies No bursting of 'higher ed bubble' despite Covid US dollar continue…
> No bursting of 'higher ed bubble' despite Covid
Do you mean students will keep taking on debt to go to school? Or tuition prices will keep going up? Or both?