Bayern will win the UCL
Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?
11–20 of 273 posts
Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?
#12The companies that are double or triple ordering this year, in fear of suppliers not delivering, are going to get a lot of stuff in 2022. In other words, the shortages and empty shells will be followed by fire sales and stories of companies destroying their inventories.
Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?
#13Countries will look for viable Small Modular Reactor designs that aren't too expensive. If they succeed, it will kickstart a huge nuclear renaissance and whoever can supply the finished reactors fast will make a lot of money on it. If not, the entire technology will probably be dead (in the civilian sector) forever. Some of the longevity trials will show significant reduction of epigenetic age in humans. I am almost…
>During the next 10 or so years, all the debt-fueled spending is going to bite us back hard.
that's like saying it will happen eventually, which is not that helpful or useful of a prediction
Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?
#14- COVID will continue to be a thing. Some new variant will come along and force everyone to lock down again. - The fed will have no choice but to keep interest rates low. This means we will have another year of rapidly rising asset prices. - Supply chain issues will get worse throughout 2022, massively fueled by US-China tensions and COVID related shifts in demand. Major inflation like we haven't seen since the 1970s…
>- Supply chain issues will get worse throughout 2022, massively fueled by US-China tensions and COVID related shifts in demand. Major inflation like we haven't seen since the 1970s.
Due to this, GOP is probably going to retake the house largely because people won't realize that the inflation has little to do with Democrats policies but is entirely because of COVID fucking everything.
Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?
#15I hope/think more countries will start to compete for remote workers and add more favorable policies to have them move. Like Portugal.
Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?
#16Title should be "Ask HN: What are your* 2022 predictions?"
Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?
#17Countries will look for viable Small Modular Reactor designs that aren't too expensive. If they succeed, it will kickstart a huge nuclear renaissance and whoever can supply the finished reactors fast will make a lot of money on it. If not, the entire technology will probably be dead (in the civilian sector) forever. Some of the longevity trials will show significant reduction of epigenetic age in humans. I am almost…
>During the next 10 or so years, all the debt-fueled spending is going to bite us back hard. that's like saying it will happen eventually, which is not that helpful or useful of a prediction
Timing the market is a hopeless task. We do not know yet if our treasuries will make an attempt to wean themselves off cheap credit or not.
I am afraid they won't, but even then the curve may vary a lot.
I know this isn't a very good prediction. The only thing that bothers me is that the contemporary ruling class seems to operate as if the borrowing could go on forever.
Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?
#18NY Mets will be out of contention by early June.
Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?
#19- COVID will continue to be a thing. Some new variant will come along and force everyone to lock down again. - The fed will have no choice but to keep interest rates low. This means we will have another year of rapidly rising asset prices. - Supply chain issues will get worse throughout 2022, massively fueled by US-China tensions and COVID related shifts in demand. Major inflation like we haven't seen since the 1970s…
Major inflation like we haven't seen since the 1970s.
That's what the U.S. government needs. $29 trillion in debt paying $417 billion in interest per year = average interest of 1.43%.
Now imagine average interest rate across the curve goes to 2.86% and now we're paying $834 billion in interest per year.
Then it goes to 5% and we're paying $1.45 trillion in interest payments per year. That's over a third of the total tax revenue of the Federal government! More than we spend on defense!
The U.S. government is so far in debt that it needs inflation to erase it. Nothing else will.
So no surprise, the Federal Reserve balance sheet has grown to $8.5 trillion:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttren...
The Fed continues to buy $120 billion in bonds per month, interest rates are close to zero, we're mailing checks out to people each month, we just approved $1 trillion in stimulus a few weeks ago and on the cusp of approving almost $2 trillion more.
Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?
#20I think the fake 'inflation' we are seeing (which is really supply-side shock) will vanish, and reveal that we are in a huge deflationary environment.
Remote work is here to stay.
Rents go up as over-leveraged landlords will have to pay back rising interest rates (QE is tapering already now).
Climate issues, real and not so real, will be used to achieve the control agenda of established power in the same way the pandemic was.
The culture wars will continue humming away in the foreground, distracting us from our declining quality of life and the transfer of wealth from the lower and middle classes taking place before our eyes.
Overall, it will get worse as our current predicament perhaps needs to.