China will invade Taiwain.
Hopefully not, but if there is some major "internal" US trouble (like a big economic crash) they probably will.
Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?
51–60 of 273 posts
Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?
#52- COVID will continue to be a thing. Some new variant will come along and force everyone to lock down again. - The fed will have no choice but to keep interest rates low. This means we will have another year of rapidly rising asset prices. - Supply chain issues will get worse throughout 2022, massively fueled by US-China tensions and COVID related shifts in demand. Major inflation like we haven't seen since the 1970s…
- COVID will continue to be a thing. Some new variant will come along and force everyone to lock down again. - Supply chain issues will get worse throughout 2022, massively fueled by US-China tensions and COVID related shifts in demand. Major inflation like we haven't seen since the 1970s. - Crypto will undergo a major crash in 2022. It follows predictable, cyclical patterns, and we are nearing the end of the classic…
Crypto can't be a real inflation hedge because it's not a productive asset (this is not a criticism). It may be going up because people are worried about inflation and so are moving some money to riskier assets that offer a higher return, but if inflation were to continue people would be forced to move their crypto assets to things like food, housing, equipment, that are actually productive, which would drive down the price of crypto.
Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?
#53 - Unsupervised pre-training of vision transformers goes mainstream
- An NFT platform reinvents DRM
- Apple teases AR devices (Late 22, spring 23)
Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?
#54Earlier quoted context omitted.
Major inflation like we haven't seen since the 1970s. That's what the U.S. government needs. $29 trillion in debt paying $417 billion in interest per year = average interest of 1.43%. Now imagine average interest rate across the curve goes to 2.86% and now we're paying $834 billion in interest per year. Then it goes to 5% and we're paying $1.45 trillion in interest payments per year. That's over a third of the total…
*1 & 2 trillion over ten years. The actual addition to the federal budget isn’t that dramatic.
Do you have any idea how much money a trillion dollars is?
If you paid $1 per second, it would take you:
12 days to spend $1 million
32 years to spend $1 billion
32,000 years to spend $1 trillion
Imagine spending $1 every second for 32,000 years. It's ridiculous! Yet we throw that number around like it "isn't that dramatic". We will never be able to pay off that borrowed money! And it will work until it doesn't. And then we will wish we were never so foolish.
Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?
#55* Queen Elizabeth II will die, prompting complaints about how much coverage the BBC will give the event. * A large earthquake (>6) in the SF Bay Area. * COVID cases will reduce but not enough to rescind mask-wearing rules. * A large "stablecoin" will crash but the crypto market will (unfortunately, probably) recover reasonably quickly. * The NFT craze will not persist. * In the US, the GOP will make significant polit…
Obviously some people will complain to the BBC, but I really don’t think that will be much of a thing. It will be an undeniably monumental event.
Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?
#56I know nobody care but in 2022 I will lose my job because France will mandate vaccination at work.
Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?
#57Earlier quoted context omitted.
If the governments start locking down again Conservative states will see house prices rise.
I think that will happen even without the lockdowns. The states that tend to lock down seem to also have the highest housing prices. And with millions now free to work from wherever they like, they will seek out cheaper shores. When I moved, someone at my old office said, "How can you stand to live in a state represented by Senator X?" I told him, "When Senator X picks up my dry cleaning or valets my car, I'll care.…
It must be nice to belong to a demographic that is unaffected by politics.
Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?
#58Bitcoin bull due to inflation worries and bitcoin lack of intrinsic value means the only metric is FOMO, so if it goes up it goes up more.
To stabilise a high price long term you’d need additional countries adopting it, and they need to fix the climate impact.
Eventually Bitcoin will be a lacklustre investment like gold. Essentially cash-like but deflationary at heart. That’s if it succeeds. Or it will implode to nothing!
Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?
#59Earlier quoted context omitted.
Do they let us work remote?
Galactically-feared aliens arrive on Earth and come up with a diabolical plan to force us to work 4 hours a day, three days a week with full medical, dental, and prescription coverage along with 60 days of vacation per year. The rest of the galaxy scratches their...whatevers...wondering why the humans throw down their tools and rush to work for the invaders.
I'd buy that book.
Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?
#60I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla gets their self driving software to a human level within the next 5 years. And that this will be a huge wake-up call for mankind. To think about the future in the face of AI. I often watch videos of people who drive with FSD for the first time. Those are the most intense reactions to a product I can remember. If one day we wake up and see self driving cars all around us, we will start…
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