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Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

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Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#21

Post by mg »

I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla gets their self driving software to a human level within the next 5 years. And that this will be a huge wake-up call for mankind. To think about the future in the face of AI.

I often watch videos of people who drive with FSD for the first time. Those are the most intense reactions to a product I can remember.

If one day we wake up and see self driving cars all around us, we will start thinking about how the world will look like when everything is automated. This will be a huge challenge and adventure.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#22

Post by LeoPanthera »

* Queen Elizabeth II will die, prompting complaints about how much coverage the BBC will give the event.

* A large earthquake (>6) in the SF Bay Area.

* COVID cases will reduce but not enough to rescind mask-wearing rules.

* A large "stablecoin" will crash but the crypto market will (unfortunately, probably) recover reasonably quickly.

* The NFT craze will not persist.

* In the US, the GOP will make significant political gains primarily through gerrymandering.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#26

Post by CyanLite4 »

2022 starts the Roaring 20s. Covid takes a backseat as new therapeutics become available. Remote work trend allows mass migration out of the Western states and into more rural areas.

Prices and employment stabilize as the Fed tapers QE.

TikTok launches new Metaverse product.

Biden steps down to allow for Kamala to take over.

Lebron James wins one final NBA championship and retires. Patriots return to win the Super Bowl and Alabama wins another College football championship.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#27

Post by hackingforfun »

uejfiweun wrote: post #3

- COVID will continue to be a thing. Some new variant will come along and force everyone to lock down again. - The fed will have no choice but to keep interest rates low. This means we will have another year of rapidly rising asset prices. - Supply chain issues will get worse throughout 2022, massively fueled by US-China tensions and COVID related shifts in demand. Major inflation like we haven't seen since the 1970s…

> Crypto will undergo a major crash in 2022. It follows predictable, cyclical patterns, and we are nearing the end of the classic boom/bust cycle. It is unclear whether this will cause the Tether situation to blow up.

Crypto and stocks seem to be correlated at this point. Both are considered risk on assets by institutional buyers. I don't anticipate crypto to crash unless stocks start to crash. If the Fed keeps interest rates low and assets continue to rise, I think it's likely that crypto continues to rise as well. From what I've heard, there is likely to be heavy institutional buying in Q1 2022 as hedge funds and others who like to take risk will add risky assets at the start of the year.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#28

Post by scyclow »

uejfiweun wrote: post #3

- COVID will continue to be a thing. Some new variant will come along and force everyone to lock down again. - The fed will have no choice but to keep interest rates low. This means we will have another year of rapidly rising asset prices. - Supply chain issues will get worse throughout 2022, massively fueled by US-China tensions and COVID related shifts in demand. Major inflation like we haven't seen since the 1970s…

I'm inclined to say that the Fed keeps interest rates low _and_ crypto undergoes a major correction, but I feel like these are almost mutually exclusive scenarios. This isn't to say that crypto is inherently a good inflation hedge, but it definitely seems like the recent crypto bull run is a direct result of asset price inflation.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#29

Post by h2odragon »

TrueGeek wrote: post #23
h2odragon wrote: post #4

Large, squid like aliens will show up and announce they have been grooming humanity for the last 4,000 or so years to manufacture and repair microelectronics for them.

Do they let us work remote?

So far. Transplanting things to a different biosphere is just so.. icky.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#30

Post by germinalphrase »

h2odragon wrote: post #4

Large, squid like aliens will show up and announce they have been grooming humanity for the last 4,000 or so years to manufacture and repair microelectronics for them.

So long as we get to make a heroic - if futile - last stand, I wouldn’t even be that upset. At least we’d know we are not alone.
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