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Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

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Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#31

Post by metalliqaz »

JasonCannon wrote: post #14
uejfiweun wrote: post #3

- COVID will continue to be a thing. Some new variant will come along and force everyone to lock down again. - The fed will have no choice but to keep interest rates low. This means we will have another year of rapidly rising asset prices. - Supply chain issues will get worse throughout 2022, massively fueled by US-China tensions and COVID related shifts in demand. Major inflation like we haven't seen since the 1970s…

>- Supply chain issues will get worse throughout 2022, massively fueled by US-China tensions and COVID related shifts in demand. Major inflation like we haven't seen since the 1970s. Due to this, GOP is probably going to retake the house largely because people won't realize that the inflation has little to do with Democrats policies but is entirely because of COVID fucking everything.

... which facilitates and end of free and fair elections in the US

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#32

Post by phpnode »

mg wrote: post #21

I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla gets their self driving software to a human level within the next 5 years. And that this will be a huge wake-up call for mankind. To think about the future in the face of AI. I often watch videos of people who drive with FSD for the first time. Those are the most intense reactions to a product I can remember. If one day we wake up and see self driving cars all around us, we will start…

I would actually expect the opposite - that FSD gets banned in the short term because mistakes are a. inevitable and b. super, super dangerous.

I think self driving cars only become safe when every vehicle is capable of self driving, and infrastructure is adapted accordingly.

happy to be proven wrong though!

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#33

Post by tpmx »

poooogles wrote: post #7
h2odragon wrote: post #4

Large, squid like aliens will show up and announce they have been grooming humanity for the last 4,000 or so years to manufacture and repair microelectronics for them.

If I finally get an RTX3080 I might be OK with that outcome.

The squids are the ones taking all of them, duh.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#34

Post by idrios »

uejfiweun wrote: post #3

- COVID will continue to be a thing. Some new variant will come along and force everyone to lock down again. - The fed will have no choice but to keep interest rates low. This means we will have another year of rapidly rising asset prices. - Supply chain issues will get worse throughout 2022, massively fueled by US-China tensions and COVID related shifts in demand. Major inflation like we haven't seen since the 1970s…

- COVID will continue to be a thing. Some new variant will come along and force everyone to lock down again.

- Supply chain issues will get worse throughout 2022, massively fueled by US-China tensions and COVID related shifts in demand. Major inflation like we haven't seen since the 1970s.

- Crypto will undergo a major crash in 2022. It follows predictable, cyclical patterns, and we are nearing the end of the classic boom/bust cycle. It is unclear whether this will cause the Tether situation to blow up.

If the first 2 happen, then I do not think crypto will crash. I'm fairly sure the reason it blew up this year was a combination of people being bored at home because of lockdown and people trying to protect against inflation.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#35

Post by krapp »

germinalphrase wrote: post #30
h2odragon wrote: post #4

Large, squid like aliens will show up and announce they have been grooming humanity for the last 4,000 or so years to manufacture and repair microelectronics for them.

So long as we get to make a heroic - if futile - last stand, I wouldn’t even be that upset. At least we’d know we are not alone.

Don't be so hasty... let's find out what the pay and benefits are, first.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#36

Post by nickthemagicman »

uejfiweun wrote: post #3

- COVID will continue to be a thing. Some new variant will come along and force everyone to lock down again. - The fed will have no choice but to keep interest rates low. This means we will have another year of rapidly rising asset prices. - Supply chain issues will get worse throughout 2022, massively fueled by US-China tensions and COVID related shifts in demand. Major inflation like we haven't seen since the 1970s…

If the governments start locking down again Conservative states will see house prices rise.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#37

Post by bshipp »

TrueGeek wrote: post #23
h2odragon wrote: post #4

Large, squid like aliens will show up and announce they have been grooming humanity for the last 4,000 or so years to manufacture and repair microelectronics for them.

Do they let us work remote?

Galactically-feared aliens arrive on Earth and come up with a diabolical plan to force us to work 4 hours a day, three days a week with full medical, dental, and prescription coverage along with 60 days of vacation per year.

The rest of the galaxy scratches their...whatevers...wondering why the humans throw down their tools and rush to work for the invaders.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#38

Post by wbsss4412 »

300bps wrote: post #19
uejfiweun wrote: post #3

- COVID will continue to be a thing. Some new variant will come along and force everyone to lock down again. - The fed will have no choice but to keep interest rates low. This means we will have another year of rapidly rising asset prices. - Supply chain issues will get worse throughout 2022, massively fueled by US-China tensions and COVID related shifts in demand. Major inflation like we haven't seen since the 1970s…

Major inflation like we haven't seen since the 1970s. That's what the U.S. government needs. $29 trillion in debt paying $417 billion in interest per year = average interest of 1.43%. Now imagine average interest rate across the curve goes to 2.86% and now we're paying $834 billion in interest per year. Then it goes to 5% and we're paying $1.45 trillion in interest payments per year. That's over a third of the total…

*1 & 2 trillion over ten years.

The actual addition to the federal budget isn’t that dramatic.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#39

Post by throwaway4good »

mg wrote: post #21

I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla gets their self driving software to a human level within the next 5 years. And that this will be a huge wake-up call for mankind. To think about the future in the face of AI. I often watch videos of people who drive with FSD for the first time. Those are the most intense reactions to a product I can remember. If one day we wake up and see self driving cars all around us, we will start…

I expect Tesla to give up on driving by cameras, and simplier solutions requiring less processing power, but a more bespoke combination of hires maps, cameras, lidars, and other sensors, to acheive practical FSD before Telsa.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#40

Post by KhoomeiK »

Sorta predictions, sorta hopes...

GPT-4 or another huge language model like it will be released, and we will see diminishing returns continue to plateau.

Graph-based approaches in NLP will continue to grow in significance, with KGs, ontologies, and semantic graphs seeing growing adoption for their interpretability.

Model robustness in ML will probably remain a significant obstacle to productionization, holding back use-cases that need high reliability e.g. self-driving and front-facing chatbots.

Reinforcement Learning may see increased research focus for applications in NLP and user interaction.

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