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Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

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Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#41

Post by reaperducer »

- Companies that are buying up large swaths of real estate figure out that "money pit" is a real thing, and owning a thousand houses isn't a good way to make hard cash. They start merging with one another to stave off a crash.

- A new social media company starts to gain traction. Because that's what happens every few years.

- People start unloading their streaming subscriptions when they realize that for many people, they cost more than cable or satellite. But rather than go back to the other delivery methods, they just consume less video. Streaming companies start to cannibalize one another, and set up for merging.

- My wife will continue to complain about her neck pain, but refuse to stop scrolling through Instagram hunched over on the toilet. She will continue to try to hide this from me.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#42

Post by throwawaycities »

300bps wrote: post #19
uejfiweun wrote: post #3

- COVID will continue to be a thing. Some new variant will come along and force everyone to lock down again. - The fed will have no choice but to keep interest rates low. This means we will have another year of rapidly rising asset prices. - Supply chain issues will get worse throughout 2022, massively fueled by US-China tensions and COVID related shifts in demand. Major inflation like we haven't seen since the 1970s…

Major inflation like we haven't seen since the 1970s. That's what the U.S. government needs. $29 trillion in debt paying $417 billion in interest per year = average interest of 1.43%. Now imagine average interest rate across the curve goes to 2.86% and now we're paying $834 billion in interest per year. Then it goes to 5% and we're paying $1.45 trillion in interest payments per year. That's over a third of the total…

Important to note every two term president doubled the national debt (except Clinton) going back to the fiscal conservative the Right puts on a pedestal, Regan, who tripled the national debt.

Congress has 1 job to balance the budget…and they have fucked it up since WW2, yet the still get unlimited terms, full pay, full benefits and full pensions.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#43

Post by AstroDogCatcher »

In the UK: Covid will dimish in importance enough for people to disentangle the negative consequences of Brexit, leading to widespread use of the Pikachu shocked face meme. Scottish independence will take a step forward, with a new referendum scheduled for 2023.

At least one company (probably Apple) will exceed $4T market cap, current >$1T companies will all pass at least one more trillion milestone. No new companies will break $1T besides those already there.

Tax rules will come into effect across Europe rendering crypto/NFTs unattractive. The market will crash then rebound, but coin values will end up roughly where they are right now.

Russian troops will be invited into Belarus to formally support defence efforts, increasing tension with the EU.

The Nord Stream 2 pipeline will become operational, but only after rocketing gas prices stir minor unrest in western Europe.

Chinese naval aggression will lead to a war of words with Japan but no direct conflict, but at least one weaker neighbour will lose fishermen or naval personnel in a small skirmish. The international community will continue to do nothing.

Taiwanese airspace will be entered by Chinese jets at least once a month, but no shots will be fired.

Genome sequencing will become an "optional" way to "reduce" health insurance premiums in the US. Sequencing of the wider population in Europe will be explored in more detail than previously, but not progress due to privacy debates.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#44

Post by nolawi89 »

It will be exactly the same as 2021; covid cycles, market will be ok, crypto will fluctuate, inflation will rise slowly, interest rate will stay the same. Earth will continue to suffer with global warming. People are displaced with fires, floods and sea levels. Civil unrest in many poor countries as autocrats seize more power. And finally Trump will still think he can convince us he won the election, it wont be on twitter

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#45

Post by joshcarr »

They're gonna find intelligent life up there on the moon And The Canterbury Tales will shoot up to the top of the best-seller list And stay there for twenty-seven weeks And the Chicago Cubs will beat every team in the league And the Tampa Bay Bucs will make it all the way through January

The stars are gonna spell out the answers to tomorrow's crosswords And the Phillips Corporation will admit that they've made an awful mistake And Bill Gates will single-handedly spearhead the Heaven 17 revival And the Chicago Cubs will beat every team in the league And the Tampa Bay Bucs will take it all the way to the top

And I will love you again I will love you like I used to

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#47

Post by carnitine »

uejfiweun wrote: post #3

- COVID will continue to be a thing. Some new variant will come along and force everyone to lock down again. - The fed will have no choice but to keep interest rates low. This means we will have another year of rapidly rising asset prices. - Supply chain issues will get worse throughout 2022, massively fueled by US-China tensions and COVID related shifts in demand. Major inflation like we haven't seen since the 1970s…

Low interest rates + nothing for higher earners to spend their money on supposedly leads to a crypto crash?

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#48

Post by reaperducer »

nickthemagicman wrote: post #36
uejfiweun wrote: post #3

- COVID will continue to be a thing. Some new variant will come along and force everyone to lock down again. - The fed will have no choice but to keep interest rates low. This means we will have another year of rapidly rising asset prices. - Supply chain issues will get worse throughout 2022, massively fueled by US-China tensions and COVID related shifts in demand. Major inflation like we haven't seen since the 1970s…

If the governments start locking down again Conservative states will see house prices rise.

I think that will happen even without the lockdowns. The states that tend to lock down seem to also have the highest housing prices. And with millions now free to work from wherever they like, they will seek out cheaper shores.

When I moved, someone at my old office said, "How can you stand to live in a state represented by Senator X?" I told him, "When Senator X picks up my dry cleaning or valets my car, I'll care. Until then, Senator X has zero bearing on my everyday life."

I think people overestimate the weight that politics plays in selecting a place to live.

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